证据权模型与含矿网格单元蒙特卡洛法相结合的资源潜力评价新方法

本文提出了计算含矿单元数概率分布函数的新方法,在此基础上,把证据权模型矿产资源评价方法得到的含矿网格单元作为蒙特卡洛模型中的统计对象,得到了与证据权模型找矿法结合的含矿网格单元蒙特卡洛法矿产资源潜力评价方法。该方法可以把评价工作区的矿产空间分布信息、成矿模式和找矿模型、成矿-找矿空间信息引入蒙特卡洛方法中,无需估计矿床个数分布,减少了工作步骤和评价误差,可提高工作效率和自动化。对实际案例的应用表明该方法是可行的。     

陇中黄土高原LAS在非均匀下垫面的观测优势及其在区域陆面模式验证中的初步应用

目前通用的通量观测技术涡动相关仪（EC）在区域陆面模式验证中存在能量不闭合和空间代表性有限的问题,寻求改进EC观测热通量的新技术是提高陆面模式验证效果的关键环节,大孔径闪烁仪（LAS）的出现有效改善了这一现状。基于黄土高原定西站2010年1月和6月的同步综合观测资料以及目前比较有代表性的陆面过程模式CLM的模拟数据,分析研究了LAS对EC观测地表能量不平衡问题的改进以及LAS对EC在区域陆面模式验证中的提高,结果表明：LAS可有效解决EC观测存在的地表能量不平衡问题,提高EC的地表能量闭合度,在非均匀下垫面LAS观测优势突出;利用LAS观测的感热通量进行区域陆面模式的验证,能够很大程度地避免EC能量不闭合和空间尺度不匹配在验证中造成的偏差,LAS观测更适合于大尺度模拟的验证,验证效果更好。     

北京连续降水水汽输送差异的同位素示踪

为了探讨连续降水过程中水汽输送的变化,应用NCEP/NCAR资料、HYSPLIT后向轨迹模拟及降水稳定同位素资料对北京22场连续降水的水汽输送差异进行了研究。结果表明:连续降水的水汽输送可分为西向水汽输送、远洋水汽输送、近海水汽输送、远源大陆水汽输送和局地大陆水汽输送5种类型,并以近海水汽输送和西向水汽输送为主（降水量占比60.8%）。不同水汽输送类型下降水δ18O的差异主要受水汽源区同位素富集程度及水汽输送途中降水过程的影响,降水氘盈余的变化反映出二次蒸发的影响及水汽源区大气相对湿度的差异。14场连续降水的水汽输送类型发生了变化,且降水δ18O值的变化能够较好地指示水汽输送类型的变化。该结果说明降水同位素特征能够为识别水汽输送类型提供有效信息。     

规范化管理在枣庄市薛城区煤矿发展中的应用

根据枣庄市薛城区辖区内煤矿开采资源储量将近枯竭的现状,阐述了实施规范化管理,增强矿井发展潜力的必要性。针对矿井实际情况,建立了一整套的管理制度考核机制,并通过实施规范化管理,促进矿井的安全生产,使该矿的经济效益和社会效益有了明显提高。     

城市政府基础设施投资在住宅市场的资本化考察——基于广州价格数据的Hedonic模型构建

Hedonic价格模型在西方发达国家是分析住房市场的常用工具,具有较高的针对性和实时性,并且是衡量外部性的定量科学方法。通过2005年、2006年和2007年三个独立的时间截面数据,建立广州住宅市场的Hedonic模型,揭示了广州居民住宅偏好随时间变化的方向和程度及发生变化的原因,并重点衡量了城市政府的基础设施投资在住宅市场中的资本化程度。结果显示广州居民对于中心区位、良好的交通通达性、大规模的小区和水景景观具有持续上升的偏好,而对于城市政府来说,在地铁建设、景观改造、教育质量提升等方面的长期性公共投资,反映在住宅市场中,即是对此不断增长的住房偏好,并通过模型也对这种投资效用的程度进行了较准确的定量测算。     

基于家庭的购物行为时、空间 决策模型及其应用

基于家庭的购物行为决策的概念模型,利用2007年北京市活动日志调查的第一手数据,建立购物出发时间决策和购物目的地决策的条件Logit模型,并探讨其在相关政策评估和预测上的应用。结果发现:家庭内部相互作用和决策层面要素对购物时、空间决策的影响比较显著;早晚高峰出行的人群具有不同的社会经济属性和购物行为属性;居民休息日的购物活动集中在离家6km以内或者高密度的商业中心;影响购物目的地选择的因素更多是购物地距离,而非商业密度。通过模拟发现,土地混合利用的政策可能会增加高峰期的交通拥挤程度,而商业设施分散布局可能更有利于城市交通状况的改善和居民日常生活质量的提升。     

Global Plate Motions and Their Impact on the Earth's Surface Area Change

Based on their Euler poles,we calculated the relative velocities between every two plates in the typical global plate motion models,respectively,and estimated the area change along these boundaries. In our calculations,plates on both sides accommodated area changes depending on the boundary types: extensional, convergent or transform, so we can estimate area change of each plate and then globally. Our preliminary results show that the area of the southern hemisphere increased while that of the northern hemisphere decreased over the past 1 million years,and global area has increased by 26,000km2 to 36,000km2,which corresponds to the 160m～250m increment on the Earth's radius if all these area increments are attributed to Earth's expansion. Taking the NUVEL-1 model as an example,of the 14 plates in this model,11 are decreasing,but the global area has increased because of the larger increment amount from Africa,North America and Antarctica. Finally,we also discussed factors affecting the global area change such as subduction zone retreating and back-arc spreading.     

Understanding of the Common Land Model performance for water and energy fluxes in a farmland during the growing season in Korea

The Common Land Model (CLM) is one of the most widely used land surface models (LSMs) due to the practicality of its simple parameterization scheme and its versatility in embracing a variety of field datasets. The improved assessment of land surface water and energy fluxes using CLM can be an alternative approach for understanding the complex land–atmosphere interactions in data‐limited regions. The understanding of water and energy cycles in a farmland is crucial because it is a dominant land feature in Korea and Asia. However, the applications of CLM to farmland in Korea are in paucity. The simulations of water and energy fluxes by CLM were conducted against those from the tower‐based measurements during the growing season of 2006 at the Haenam site (a farmland site) in Korea without optimization. According to the International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme (IGBP) land cover classification, a homogeneous cropland was selected initially for this study. Although the simulated soil moisture had a similar pattern to that of the observed, the former was relatively drier (at 0·1 m³ m^?3) than the latter. The simulated net radiation showed good agreement with the observed, with a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 41 W m^?2, whereas relatively large discrepancies between the simulation and observation were found in sensible (RMSE of 66 W m^?2) and latent (RMSE of 60 W m^?2) heat fluxes. On the basis of the sensitivity analysis, soil moisture was more receptive to land cover and soil texture parameterizations when compared to soil temperature and turbulent fluxes. Despite the uncertainty in the predictive capability of CLM employed without optimization, the initial performance of CLM suggests usefulness in a data‐limited heterogeneous farmland in Korea. Further studies are required to identify the controls on water and energy fluxes with an improved parameterization. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assimilation of ASAR data with a hydrologic and semi-empirical backscattering coupled model to estimate soil moisture

The most promising approach for studying soil moisture is the assimilation of observation data and computational modeling.However,there is much uncertainty in the assimilation process,which affects the assimilation results.This research developed a one-dimensional soil moisture assimilation scheme based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter(EnKF)and Genetic Algorithm(GA).A two-dimensional hydrologic model-Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model(DHSVM)was coupled with a semi-empirical backscattering model(Oh).The Advanced Synthetic Apertture Radar(ASAR)data were assimilated with this coupled model and the field observation data were used to validate this scheme in the soil moisture assimilation experiment.In order to improve the assimilation results,a cost function was set up based on the distance between the simulated backscattering coefficient from the coupled model and the observed backscattering coefficient from ASAR.The EnKF and GA were used to re-initialize and re-parameterize the simulation process,respectively.The assimilation results were compared with the free-run simulations from hydrologic model and the field observation data.The results obtained indicate that this assimilation scheme is practical and it can improve the accuracy of soil moisture estimation significantly.