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141.
A soil–vegetation–atmosphere transfer model (SVAT), interactions between the soil–biosphere–atmosphere (ISBA) of Météo France, is modified and applied to the Athabasca River Basin (ARB) to model its water and energy fluxes. Two meteorological datasets are used: the archived forecasts from the Meteorological Survey of Canada’s Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM) and the European Centre for Mid-range Weather Forecasts global re-analysis (ERA-40), representing spatial scales typical of a weather forecasting model and a global circulation model (GCM), respectively. The original treatment of soil moisture and rainfall in ISBA (OISBA) is modified to statistically account for sub-grid heterogeneity of soil moisture and rainfall to produce new, highly non-linear formulations for surface and sub-surface runoff (MISBA). These new formulations can be readily applied to most existing SVATs. Stand alone mode simulations using the GEM data demonstrate that MISBA significantly improves streamflow predictions despite requiring two fewer parameters than OISBA. Simulations using the ERA-40 data show that it is possible to reproduce the annual variation in monthly, mean annual, and annual minimum flows at GCM scales without using downscaling techniques. Finally, simulations using a simple downscaling scheme show that the better performance of higher resolution datasets can be primarily attributed to improved representation of local variation of land cover, topography, and climate. 相似文献
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A six-step practical approach to semivariogram modeling 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:3
Geostatistical prediction and simulation are being increasingly used in the earth sciences and engineering to address the imperfect knowledge of attributes that fluctuate over large areas or volumes—pollutant concentration, electromagnetic fields, porosity, thickness of a geological formation. Central to the application of such techniques is the need to know the spatial continuity, knowledge that is commonly condensed in the form of covariance or semivariogram models. Their preparation is subdivided here into the following steps: (1) Data editing, (2) Exploratory data analysis, (3) Semivariogram estimation, (4) Directional investigation, (5) Simple modeling, (6) Nested modeling. I illustrate these stages practically with a real data set from a geophysical survey from Elk County, Kansas, USA. The applicability of the approach is not limited by the physical nature of the attribute of interest. 相似文献
145.
I. Markiewicz W. G. Strupczewski K. Kochanek V. P. Singh 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2006,20(6):391-405
Three dispersion measures of a random variable, i.e., the standard deviation, the mean deviation (MD) about the mean and the second L-moment, are analyzed in terms of their properties and mutual relationships. Emphasis is placed on the MD, as it is less recognized than two other dispersion measures. The relationships between the dispersion measures are derived for distributions commonly applied in flood frequency analysis (FFA). For distributions that are unbounded, there is a distribution-dependent constant value of the ratio of dispersion measures, or equivalently of respective coefficients of variation. For two-parameter distributions that are lower-bounded, the relationship between the coefficients of variation is also distribution dependent and is not linear. For lower-bounded three-parameter distributions, the dispersion measure ratios, or equivalently the ratios of coefficients of variation, depend on the coefficient of skewness and show a strong distributional dependence. For selected distributions, the three dispersion measures are compared both in terms of the robustness to the largest samples element and the accuracy of upper quantile estimation. The MD statistics may be highly competitive to the two other dispersion measure statistics if applied in FFA for parameters estimation. 相似文献
146.
Marcos E. C. Bernardes Mark A. Davidson Keith R. Dyer Ken J. George 《Ocean Dynamics》2006,56(3-4):186-197
The main objective of this paper is to address the principal mechanisms involved in the medium-term (order of months to years) morphodynamic evolution of estuaries through the application of a process-based numerical modelling. The Teign estuary (Teignmouth, UK) is the selected site. The system is forced by the macrotidal semi-diurnal tide in the English Channel and is perturbed to a minor extent by high river discharge events (freshets). Although waves have a definite influence on the adjacent coastal area, Wells (Teignmouth Quay Development Environmental Statement: Changes to Physical Processes. Report R.984c:140. ABP Marine Environmental Research Ltd., Southampton, 2002b) suggested that swell waves do not enter the estuary. Hence, wave effects are neglected in this study, as only tides and the river discharge are taken into account. The sediment grain size is highly variable, but mainly sandy. Within the frame of the COAST3D project (), four bathymetric surveys of the adjacent coastal area were carried out at a nearly weekly intervals. The outer estuary and the adjacent coastal area were also surveyed every 6 months as part of the COASTVIEW project (). Based on these data and on continuously measured parameters, such as water level, waves, wind and river discharge, numerical modelling of the morphodynamic processes can be tested. To replicate the morphological changes in the medium-term within a feasible simulation time, forcing conditions are reduced through the use of an input reduction method (called ensemble technique). In this study, simulations are based on the coupling between Telemac-2D and its non-cohesive sediment transport module, Sisyphe (version 5.3 for both modules). Three different sediment transport formulae were tested: (1) Engelund and Hansen (A monograph on sediment transport in alluvial streams, 3rd edn. Technological University of Denmark, Copenhagen, 1967) including the modifications proposed by Chollet and Cunge (J Hydraul Eng 17(1):1–13, 1979); (2) Bijker (Mechanics of sediment transport by the combination of waves and current. In: Design and reliability of coastal structures. 23rd international conference on Coastal Engineering, pp 147–173, 1968) and (3) Soulsby (Dynamics of Marine Sands. A manual for practical applications. HR Wallingford, Wallingford, p 142, 1997) modified version of van Rijn [J Hydraul Eng 110(10):1431–1456, 1984a, J Hydraul Eng 110(11):1613–1641, 1984b] formulation. Both a qualitative (i.e. visual comparison) and a quantitative tool [Brier Skill Score (BSS); described in Sutherland et al. in Coast Eng 51:917–939, 2004b] are applied to assess the similarity of simulations when compared to model predictions and observations. Tests confirmed the reliability and time efficiency of the ensemble technique, since it reproduced very well the results of a reference run, a computation based on the observed boundary conditions. For the spring-neap cycle modelled, the BSS was of 0.91 (a perfect modelling would have a BSS of 1), with a reduction in the simulation time on the order of 80%. For the 6-month-period simulation, results were also excellent: BSS=0.92 and a computer time reduction of 85%. In principle, this method has the advantage of being applied to any process-based numerical model. 相似文献
147.
M. J. Best C. S. B. Grimmond Maria Gabriella Villani 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2006,118(3):503-525
The UK Met Office has introduced a new scheme for its urban tile in MOSES 2.2 (Met Office Surface Exchange Scheme version 2.2), which is currently implemented within the operational Met Office weather forecasting model. Here, the performance of the urban tile is evaluated in two urban areas: the historic core of downtown Mexico City and a light industrial site in Vancouver, Canada. The sites differ in terms of building structures and mean building heights. In both cases vegetation cover is less than 5%. The evaluation is based on surface energy balance flux measurements conducted at approximately the blending height, which is the location where the surface scheme passes flux data into the atmospheric model. At both sites, MOSES 2.2 correctly simulates the net radiation, but there are discrepancies in the partitioning of turbulent and storage heat fluxes between predicted and observed values. Of the turbulent fluxes, latent heat fluxes were underpredicted by about one order of magnitude. Multiple model runs revealed MOSES 2.2 to be sensitive to changes in the canopy heat storage and in the ratio between the aerodynamic roughness length and that for heat transfer (temperature). Model performance was optimum with heat capacity values smaller than those generally considered for these sites. The results suggest that the current scheme is probably too simple, and that improvements may be obtained by increasing the complexity of the model. 相似文献
148.
A. A. M. Holtslag G. J. Steeneveld B. J. H. van de Wiel 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2007,125(2):361-376
At present a variety of boundary-layer schemes is in use in numerical models and often a large variation of model results
is found. This is clear from model intercomparisons, such as organized within the GEWEX Atmospheric Boundary Layer Study (GABLS).
In this paper we analyze how the specification of the land-surface temperature affects the results of a boundary-layer scheme,
in particular for stable conditions. As such we use a well established column model of the boundary layer and we vary relevant
parameters in the turbulence scheme for stable conditions. By doing so, we can reproduce the outcome for a variety of boundary-layer
models. This is illustrated with the original set-up of the second GABLS intercomparison study using prescribed geostrophic
winds and land-surface temperatures as inspired by (but not identical to) observations of CASES-99 for a period of more than
two diurnal cycles. The model runs are repeated using a surface temperature that is calculated with a simple land-surface
scheme. In the latter case, it is found that the range of model results in stable conditions is reduced for the sensible heat
fluxes, and the profiles of potential temperature and wind speed. However, in the latter case the modelled surface temperatures
are rather different than with the original set-up, which also impacts on near-surface air temperature and wind speed. As
such it appears that the model results in stable conditions are strongly influenced by non-linear feedbacks in which the magnitude
of the geostrophic wind speed and the related land-surface temperature play an important role. 相似文献
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