Automated Prediction of CMEs Using Machine Learning of CME – Flare Associations

Machine-learning algorithms are applied to explore the relation between significant flares and their associated CMEs. The NGDC flares catalogue and the SOHO/LASCO CME catalogue are processed to associate X and M-class flares with CMEs based on timing information. Automated systems are created to process and associate years of flare and CME data, which are later arranged in numerical-training vectors and fed to machine-learning algorithms to extract the embedded knowledge and provide learning rules that can be used for the automated prediction of CMEs. Properties representing the intensity, flare duration, and duration of decline and duration of growth are extracted from all the associated (A) and not-associated (NA) flares and converted to a numerical format that is suitable for machine-learning use. The machine-learning algorithms Cascade Correlation Neural Networks (CCNN) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) are used and compared in our work. The machine-learning systems predict, from the input of a flare’s properties, if the flare is likely to initiate a CME. Intensive experiments using Jack-knife techniques are carried out and the relationships between flare properties and CMEs are investigated using the results. The predictive performance of SVM and CCNN is analysed and recommendations for enhancing the performance are provided.     

The NASA Lunar Impact Monitoring Program

NASA’s Meteoroid Environment Office has implemented a program to monitor the Moon for meteoroid impacts from the Marshall Space Flight Center. Using off-the-shelf telescopes and video equipment, the Moon is monitored for as many as 10 nights per month, depending on weather. Custom software automatically detects flashes which are confirmed by a second telescope, photometrically calibrated using background stars, and published on a website for correlation with other observations. Hypervelocity impact tests at the Ames Vertical Gun Range facility have begun to determine the luminous efficiency and ejecta characteristics. The purpose of this research is to define the impact ejecta environment for use by lunar spacecraft designers of the Constellation manned lunar program. The observational techniques and preliminary results will be discussed. The U.S. Government's right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty-free license in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

Comparison of Meteoroid Flux Models for Near Earth Space

Over the last decade several new models for the sporadic interplanetary meteoroid flux have been developed. These include the Divine-Staubach and the Dikarev model. They typically cover mass ranges from 10⁻¹⁸ g to 1 g and are applicable for model specific Sun distance ranges between 0.1 AU and 20 AU Near 1 AU averaged fluxes (over direction and velocities) for all these models are tuned to the well established interplanetary model by Grün et al. However, in many respects these models differ considerably. Examples are the velocity and directional distributions and the assumed meteoroid sources. In this paper flux predictions by the various models to Earth orbiting spacecraft are compared. Main differences are presented and analysed. The persisting differences even for near Earth space can be seen as surprising in view of the numerous ground based (optical and radar) and in situ (captured Inter Stellar Dust Particles, in situ detectors and analysis of retrieved hardware) measurements and simulations.     

The life cycle of contributors in collaborative online communities -the case of OpenStreetMap

Over the last two decades, online communities have become ubiquitous, with millions of people accessing collaborative project websites every day. Among them, the OpenStreetMap project (OSM) has been very successful in collecting/offering volunteered geographic information (VGI). Very different behaviours are observed among OSM participants, which translate into large differences of lifespan, contribution levels (e.g. Nielsen’s 90–9-1 rule) and attitudes towards innovations (e.g. Diffusion of innovation theory or DoIT). So far, the literature has defined phases in the life cycle of contributors only based on the nature of their contributions (e.g. role of participants and edits characteristics). Our study identifies the different phases of their life cycle from a temporal perspective and assesses how these phases relate to the volume and the frequency of the contributions from participants. Survival analyses were performed using both a complementary cumulative distribution function and a Kaplan-Meier estimator to plot survival and hazard curves. The analyses were broken down according to Nielsen and DoIT contributors’ categories to highlight potential explanatory variables. This paper shows that two contribution processes combine with three major participation stages to form six phases in contributors’ life cycle. The volume of edits provided on each active day is driven by the two contribution processes, illustrating the evolution of contributors’ motivation over time. Since contributors’ lifespan is a universal metric, our results may also apply to other collaborative online communities.     

基于C5.0算法的胃癌生存预测模型研究

我国的胃癌发病率高,每年新增胃癌患者占全世界每年新增数量的42％,胃癌成为我国恶性肿瘤防控的重点.本文针对胃癌数据的特征,给出数据预处理和集成方法;采用C5.0分类算法,构建了胃癌生存预测模型,并首次采用美国癌症研究所的SEER数据库进行预测实验.实验结果表明：C5.0预测的精确度、特异性均高于BP-神经网络算法;胃癌患者的出生地点与最终的存活状态之间存在较强的相关性.该研究是数据挖掘技术在医学领域的一个实际应用,对胃癌的临床诊断具有一定的参考价值,可为医生制定合理的治疗和预防方案提供一定参考.     

Effect of Long-Term Low-Salinity Culture on the Survival,Growth, and Nutrient Composition of Mud Crab Scylla paramamosain

This study investigated the effects of long-term low-salinity on the growth performance,proximate composition,amino acid and fatty acid profiles of Scylla paramamosain.The salinity of the low-salinity-culture group(LC)and maintained-salinity-cul-ture group(MC)were set at 5 and 25 respectively.After rearing for 30 d,the survival rate(SR)of the LC group was significantly lower,whereas the average daily molting frequency(ADMF)was significantly higher than those in MC group(P<0.05).There were no significant difference for weight gain rate(WGR)and specific growth rate(SGR)between the two groups.The moisture content of the LC group was slightly higher than the MC group without significant difference.The contents of ash,crude lipid and crude pro-tein in the LC group were lower than those in the MC group,but no significant differences were found except for ash content.A total of 17 free amino acids and 23 fatty acids were identified from the muscle of S.paramamosain.The total amino acids(TAA),essen-tial amino acids(EAA)and essential amino acid index(EAAI)had no significant difference between the two groups.The crabs from LC group had a significantly higher HUFA,including EPA,DHA,ARA.The percentage of n-3 PUFA and the ratio of n-3/n-6 PUFA were significantly higher in the LC group.These results indicated that S.paramamosain rearing at low salinity had significantly de-creased SR;however,the low-salinity environment significantly promoted the accumulation of unsaturated fatty acids(UFAs),espe-cially the n-3 PUFA,which might be related to the osmoregulation mechanism.     

澳门回归与粤澳经济和空间一体化

在澳门回归、广东与澳门之间政治关系转变的基础上, 结合改革开放后两地在经济与空间互补和紧密结合的历史事实, 指出澳门回归后, 在历史、经济、政治、文化等因素作用和影响下, 粤澳经济和空间一体化是一种必然趋势, 应充分利用两地资源和空间优势互补关系, 推动两个地区的发展。     

Analysis of thick, non-planar boundaries using the discontinuity analyser

The advent of missions comprised of phased arrays of spacecraft, with separation distances ranging down to at least mesoscales, provides the scientific community with an opportunity to accurately analyse the spatial and temporal dependencies of structures in space plasmas. Exploitation of the multi-point data sets, giving vastly more information than in previous missions, thereby allows unique study of their small-scale physics. It remains an outstanding problem, however, to understand in what way comparative information across spacecraft is best built into any analysis of the combined data. Different investigations appear to demand different methods of data co-ordination. Of the various multi-spacecraft data analysis techniques developed to affect this exploitation, the discontinuity analyser has been designed to investigate the macroscopic properties (topology and motion) of boundaries, revealed by multi-spacecraft magnetometer data, where the possibility of at least mesoscale structure is considered. It has been found that the analysis of planar structures is more straightforward than the analysis of non-planar boundaries, where the effects of topology and motion become interwoven in the data, and we argue here that it becomes necessary to customise the analysis for non-planar events to the type of structure at hand. One issue central to the discontinuity analyser, for instance, is the calculation of normal vectors to the structure. In the case of planar and ‘thin’ non-planar structures, the method of normal determination is well-defined, although subject to uncertainties arising from unwanted signatures. In the case of ‘thick’, non-planar structures, however, the method of determination becomes particularly sensitive to the type of physical sampling that is present. It is the purpose of this article to firstly review the discontinuity analyser technique and secondly, to discuss the analysis of the normals to thick non-planar structures detected in magnetometer data.     

The application of a shift theorem analysis technique to multipoint measurements

A Fourier domain technique has been proposed previously which, in principle, quantifies the extent to which multipoint in-situ measurements can identify whether or not an observed structure is time stationary in its rest frame. Once a structure, sampled for example by four spacecraft, is shown to be quasi-stationary in its rest frame, the structure’s velocity vector can be determined with respect to the sampling spacecraft. We investigate the properties of this technique, which we will refer to as a stationarity test, by applying it to two point measurements of a simulated boundary layer. The boundary layer was evolved using a PIC (particle in cell) electromagnetic code. Initial and boundary conditions were chosen such, that two cases could be considered, i.e. a spacecraft pair moving through (1) a time stationary boundary structure and (2) a boundary structure which is evolving (expanding) in time. The code also introduces noise in the simulated data time series which is uncorrelated between the two spacecraft. We demonstrate that, provided that the time series is Hanning windowed, the test is effective in determining the relative velocity between the boundary layer and spacecraft and in determining the range of frequencies over which the data can be treated as time stationary or time evolving. This work presents a first step towards understanding the effectiveness of this technique, as required in order for it to be applied to multispacecraft data.     

中国的空间环境研究与空间环境预报

本文主要介绍我国在空间环境研究与空间环境预报方面的进展, 包括空间环境资料和模式的收集、研究与应用; 空间环境与航天器的相互作用及其对航天器的影响; 以及空间环境预报方法和预报技术等的进展