Some Observations on the Use of Data from Historical Documents in Debris-Flow Studies

The knowledge of past events is important for the assessment of debris-flow hazard. Amongst the sources of information, documents from historical archives are particularly important in sites where the debris flows cause damage to urban areas and transportation routes. The paper analyses the availability of historical documents on debris flows in Northeastern Italy and discusses factors that can influence the building of time series from archive data both at regional and single basin scales. An increased number of debris flows was observed in the studied region for the last decades. This could be due both to an increased frequency of the events and to a larger availability of information: the analysis carried out indicates that the latter factor is probably the most influencing. The importance of factors, which affect the collection of data, including the conservation of documents and the presence and fragility of the elements at risk, is stressed in view of a wise use of historical data on debris flows.     

基于GIS的商业网点选址研究与实现

利用平面／网络优化模型，综合权衡市区选址的基本费用及商业网点日常经营的成本，引入交通便利因子作为限制条件，并运用直接搜索的Dixon方法，加强了不确定性选址问题的约束条件，降低不确定性问题计算的复杂度，减少在选址问题实现中主观因素对选址结果的影响。最后以某区新建商业网点选址为例，详细分析了直接搜索算法应用的具体过程。     

低频泥石流特征及防治 --以四川汶川县茶园沟为例

低频泥石流指30a以上发生1次的泥石流。尽管发生频率很低，但由于自身的特征及人们认识上的原因，其造l戒的人员伤亡和财产损失却居各类泥石流之首。对低频泥石流的研究在预防和减轻泥石流灾害方面有着重要意义。文章以2003年8月9日发生在四川汶川县茶园沟的泥石流为蒯，采用形态调查法和称重法等方法确定了流量、流速及重度。分析了其物质来源及形成的自然和人为原因，探讨了低频泥石流的特征。针对低频泥石流的低频性、破坏性和隐蔽性特点，同时考虑到低频泥石流沟的防治受保护对象的重要程度及资金投入等因素的限制，提出了进行泥石流危险性分区、搞好小流域水土深持、普及泥石流防灾减灾知识及加强监测和预警预报等措施，这对减轻低频泥石流区的灾害有一定的借鉴意义。     

泥石流汇流槽可靠度分析

汇流槽是泥石流治理工程中常用的工程措施之一。文章基于汇流槽的倾倒破坏、滑移破坏及地基破坏模式，通过对汇流槽设计影响强烈的岩土参数、几何特征、荷载因素等敏感因子的求解方法及分布特征分析，从汇流槽的抗倾稳定、抗滑稳定和基底应力要求三方面建立极限状态方程。对于每个极限状态方程，在泰勒级数对非线性极限状态方程线性化后，运用一次二阶矩的理论，先假定失效点P^＊，求解出相应的均值和方差。然后根据可靠的定义，得到相应的可靠度指标，通过迭代法求解真正失效点的可靠度指标βi。最后根据3个状态方程相互独立的假定，得出整个结构的可靠度指标β。该方法在平川泥石流防治工程中得到了成功的运用。这对于可靠度设计方法在泥石流防治工程中的运用进行了有益的探讨。     

岷江上游干扰岸坡主要表生地质灾害分布特征及成因浅析

岷江上游地处我国著名的南北向地震带的中段，因其特定的地质环境导致区内表生地质灾害极为严重。通过对岷江上游（汶川以上）河段的崩塌、滑坡、泥石流等表生地质灾害的调查研究，其分布沿岷江两岸具有明显的分段特征与河谷地貌分段基本一致，它们形成发展与特定地形地貌、易崩滑或软弱地层、特殊的构造部位、降雨等密切相关。     

地质图空间数据库建设中的拓扑关系处理

拓扑关系是空间数据库的核心。主要阐述拓扑关系的基本概念，详细介绍MAPGIS和ARC/INFO两大模块中，拓扑关系具体表现形式、处理方法及处理过程中的注意事项，形成了一套较为完善的工作流程，提高了工作效率，为今后的信息化提供了行之有效的工作方法。     

不同损失条件下的泥石流预报模型

泥石流预报是泥石流减灾的重要手段之一，然而泥石流形成的复杂性使泥石流预报准确度低，误报和漏报率较高。泥石流误报和漏报都会造成损失，但二者造成的损失有很大的差别。为了减少泥石流误报或漏报造成的损失，应当考虑两种错报造成损失的不同。根据使总平均损失达到最小的原则，建立了不同损失条件下的泥石流预报模型，并将该模型应用到云南东川蒋家沟。     

泥石流多发干旱河谷区植被恢复研究

云南东北部东川小江流域的干旱河谷土地退化十分严重，土地表层的砾石含量已超过60％，有机质含量、全氮、有效氮、有效磷、有效钾的含量相对于残存燥红土明显下降。草坡是当地的主要植被类型，并未起到防治土地退化的应有作用。以合欢（Leucaena glauca)、马桑（Coriaria sinica)种植为主的恢复方式对土地的恢复有明显的改善作用。高密度的乔木树种合欢的种植使林下的草本物种的数量和组成发生了极大变化，较耐荫的植物占据了林分下层，且物种数量较草坡减少，群落多样性指数降低。三种马桑种植方式下，不但原有的草坡群落的物种仍有大量的生存空间，而且为一些新物种创造了生存环境，从而使物种的种类较原有草坡地增加，提高了群落的多样性指数。合欢种植的生物量最高，对解决当地薪柴严重短缺意义重大，马桑种植在增加灌木层生物量的同时，并未改变草坡的物种组成，还可兼顾解决当地的饲草和放牧，应大力推广。     

A study on the early-warning technique concerning debris flow disasters

According to the principle of the eruption of debris flows, the new torrent classification techniques are brought forward. The torrent there can be divided into 4 types such as the debris flow torrent with high destructive strength, the debris flow torrent, high sand-carrying capacity flush flood torrent and common flush flood by the techniques. In this paper, the classification indices system and the quantitative rating methods are presented. Based on torrent classification, debris flow torrent hazard zone mapping techniques by which the debris flow disaster early-warning object can be ascertained accurately are identified. The key techniques of building the debris flow disaster neural network (NN)real time forecasting model are given detailed explanations in this paper, including the determination of neural node at the input layer, the output layer and the implicit layer, the construction of knowledge source and the initial weight value and so on. With this technique, the debris flow disaster real-time forecasting neural network model is built according to the rainfall features of the historical debris flow disasters, which includes multiple rain factors such as rainfall of the disaster day, the rainfall of 15 days before the disaster day, the maximal rate of rainfall in one hour and ten minutes. It can forecast the probability, critical rainfall of eruption of the debris flows, through the real-time rainfall monitoring or weather forecasting. Based on the torrent classification and hazard zone mapping, combined with rainfall monitoring in the rainy season and real-time forecasting models, the debris flow disaster early-warning system is built. In this system, the GIS technique, the advanced international software and hardware are applied, which makes the system′s performance steady with good expansibility. The system is a visual information system that serves management and decision-making, which can facilitate timely inspect of the variation of the torrent type and hazardous zone, the torrent management, the early-warning of disasters and the disaster reduction and prevention.     

粘性泥石流残留层的形成及减阻作用--以云南蒋家沟泥石流为例

通过对云南蒋家沟粘性泥石流的野外观测 ,讨论了粘性泥石流残留层的定义特征 ,在大量实测数据基础上 ,分析了残留层易形成时段的特性 ;分别对一次泥石流过程、若干阵泥石流和一阵泥石流残留层的变化进行了相关分析 ;最后用观测数据分析了泥石流残留层的减阻作用