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81.
Including spatial distribution in a data‐driven rainfall‐runoff model to improve reservoir inflow forecasting in Taiwan 下载免费PDF全文
Multi‐step ahead inflow forecasting has a critical role to play in reservoir operation and management in Taiwan during typhoons as statutory legislation requires a minimum of 3‐h warning to be issued before any reservoir releases are made. However, the complex spatial and temporal heterogeneity of typhoon rainfall, coupled with a remote and mountainous physiographic context, makes the development of real‐time rainfall‐runoff models that can accurately predict reservoir inflow several hours ahead of time challenging. Consequently, there is an urgent, operational requirement for models that can enhance reservoir inflow prediction at forecast horizons of more than 3 h. In this paper, we develop a novel semi‐distributed, data‐driven, rainfall‐runoff model for the Shihmen catchment, north Taiwan. A suite of Adaptive Network‐based Fuzzy Inference System solutions is created using various combinations of autoregressive, spatially lumped radar and point‐based rain gauge predictors. Different levels of spatially aggregated radar‐derived rainfall data are used to generate 4, 8 and 12 sub‐catchment input drivers. In general, the semi‐distributed radar rainfall models outperform their less complex counterparts in predictions of reservoir inflow at lead times greater than 3 h. Performance is found to be optimal when spatial aggregation is restricted to four sub‐catchments, with up to 30% improvements in the performance over lumped and point‐based models being evident at 5‐h lead times. The potential benefits of applying semi‐distributed, data‐driven models in reservoir inflow modelling specifically, and hydrological modelling more generally, are thus demonstrated. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
82.
The June 2013 Alberta catastrophic flooding event – part 2: fine‐scale precipitation and associated features 下载免费PDF全文
B. Kochtubajda R. E. Stewart S. Boodoo J. M. Thériault Y. Li A. Liu C. Mooney R. Goodson K. Szeto 《水文研究》2016,30(26):4917-4933
Data obtained from a variety of sources including the Canadian Lightning Detection Network, weather radars, weather stations and operational numerical weather model analyses were used to address the evolution of precipitation during the June 2013 southern Alberta flood. The event was linked to a mid‐level closed low pressure system to the west of the region and a surface low pressure region initially to its south. This configuration brought warm, moist unstable air into the region that led to dramatic, organized convection with an abundance of lightning and some hail. Such conditions occurred in the southern parts of the region whereas the northern parts were devoid of lightning. Initially, precipitation rates were high (extreme 15‐min rainfall rates up to 102 mm h?1 were measured) but decreased to lower values as the precipitation shifted to long‐lived stratiform conditions. Both the convective and stratiform precipitation components were affected by the topography. Similar flooding events, such as June 2002, have occurred over this region although the 2002 event was colder and precipitation was not associated with substantial convection over southwest Alberta. Copyright © 2016 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. Hydrological Processes. © John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
83.
Water level observations from unmanned aerial vehicles for improving estimates of surface water–groundwater interaction 下载免费PDF全文
Filippo Bandini Michael Butts Torsten Vammen Jacobsen Peter Bauer‐Gottwein 《水文研究》2017,31(24):4371-4383
Integrated hydrological models are usually calibrated against observations of river discharge and piezometric head in groundwater aquifers. Calibration of such models against spatially distributed observations of river water level can potentially improve their reliability and predictive skill. However, traditional river gauging stations are normally spaced too far apart to capture spatial patterns in the water surface, whereas spaceborne observations have limited spatial and temporal resolution. Unmanned aerial vehicles can retrieve river water level measurements, providing (a) high spatial resolution; (b) spatially continuous profiles along or across the water body, and (c) flexible timing of sampling. A semisynthetic study was conducted to analyse the value of the new unmanned aerial vehicle‐borne datatype for improving hydrological models, in particular estimates of groundwater–surface water (GW–SW) interaction. Mølleåen River (Denmark) and its catchment were simulated using an integrated hydrological model (MIKE 11–MIKE SHE). Calibration against distributed surface water levels using the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis algorithm demonstrated a significant improvement in estimating spatial patterns and time series of GW–SW interaction. After water level calibration, the sharpness of the estimates of GW–SW time series improves by ~50% and root mean square error decreases by ~75% compared with those of a model calibrated against discharge only. 相似文献
84.
Measurement of stream cross section using ground penetration radar with Hilbert–Huang transform 下载免费PDF全文
This study presents a new method to measure stream cross section without having contact with water. Compared with conventional measurement methods which apply instruments such as sounding weight, ground penetration radar (GPR), used in this study, is a non‐contact measurement method. This non‐contact measurement method can reduce the risk to hydrologists when they are conducting measurements, particularly in high flow period. However, the original signals obtained by using GPR are very complex, different from studies in the past where the measured data were mostly interpreted by experts with special skill or knowledge of GPR so that the results obtained were less objective. This study employs Hilbert–Huang transform (HHT) to process GPR signals which are difficult to interpret by hydrologists. HHT is a newly developed signal processing method that can not only process the nonlinear and non‐stationary complex signals, but also maintain the physical significance of the signal itself. Using GPR with HHT, this study establishes a non‐contact stream cross‐section measurement method with the ability to measure stream cross‐sectional areas precisely and quickly. Also, in comparison with the conventional method, no significant difference in results is found to exist between the two methods, but the new method can considerably reduce risk, measurement time, and manpower. It is proven that the non‐contact method combining GPR with HHT is applicable to quickly and accurately measure stream cross section. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
85.
Abstract The magnetohydrodynamic stability of a class of magnetohydrostatic equilibria is investigated. The effect of gravity is included as well as the stabilising influence of the dense photospheric line-tying. Although the two-dimensional equilibria exhibit a catastrophe point, when the ratio of plasma pressure to magnetic pressure exceeds a critical value, arcade structures, with both footpoints connected to the photosphere, become unstable to three-dimensional disturbances before the catastrophe point is reached. Numerical results for field lines that are open into the solar corona suggest that they are completely stable. Although there is no definite proof of stability, this would allow the point of non-equilibrium to be reached. 相似文献
86.
In this study,cloud base height(CBH) and cloud top height(CTH) observed by the Ka-band(33.44 GHz) cloud radar at the Boseong National Center for Intensive Observation of Severe Weather during fall 2013(September-November) were verified and corrected.For comparative verification,CBH and CTH were obtained using a ceilometer(CL51) and the Communication,Ocean and Meteorological Satellite(COMS).During rainfall,the CBH and CTH observed by the cloud radar were lower than observed by the ceilometer and COMS because of signal attenuation due to raindrops,and this difference increased with rainfall intensity.During dry periods,however,the CBH and CTH observed by the cloud radar,ceilometer,and COMS were similar.Thin and low-density clouds were observed more effectively by the cloud radar compared with the ceilometer and COMS.In cases of rainfall or missing cloud radar data,the ceilometer and COMS data were proven effective in correcting or compensating the cloud radar data.These corrected cloud data were used to classify cloud types,which revealed that low clouds occurred most frequently. 相似文献
87.
基于Rayleigh-Gans散射原理构造一个S波段双线偏振雷达模拟器。模拟器考虑了云冰、雪、雨和雹4种水凝物,以水凝物的混合比和数浓度以及水凝物粒子的轴比、相对介电常数、下落倾角为输入量,计算得到水平/垂直偏振反射率因子、差分反射率、比差分相位等偏振量。通过二维理想飑线模拟的试验结果表明,模拟器合理地再现了二维理想飑线系统成熟期的主要偏振特征:雹的反射率较高,差分反射率较低(又称Zdr洞);对流云区的Zdr柱;层云区的反射率和比差分相位的0℃层亮带特征;雨滴反射率与差分反射率因子的“雨线”统计特征。利用该模拟器建立了模式变量和偏振雷达观测的联系,有助于未来将偏振雷达观测资料应用于模式预报效果评估及对流尺度资料同化等方面的研究和应用。 相似文献
88.
TRMM星载测雨雷达和地基雷达反射率因子数据的三维融合 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2
TRMM卫星上的测雨雷达(TRMMPR)探测资料分布均匀且具有很高的垂直分辨率,但灵敏度较低;地基雷达(GR)水平分辨率较高且具有较高的灵敏度,但其垂直分辨率低。通过将TRMM PR与GR反射率因子数据的三维数据融合,得到了更优的反射率因子图像。测雨雷达与地基雷达三维数据融合主要分为以下几步:测雨雷达与地基雷达数据预处理——如去杂波、衰减校正;测雨雷达与地基雷达时空匹配;选取和应用合适的三维图像融合算法;对融合后的图像进行效果评估。试验结果表明:融合后的图像不仅增大了信息量,更好地检测弱降水,还提高了空间三维(3D)分辨率,能更好地反映降水区域细节,且使得数据总体上具有更高的完整性和可靠性。此外,还将基于雷达资料估测的降水数据与地面雨量计数据进行对比,估计反射率因子数据融合在降水测量上的有效性。 相似文献
89.
在众多种针对云垂直结构的探测中,毫米波雷达可获取云底、云顶、云厚等完整的云垂直结构信息,并可以连续监测云的垂直剖面变化,是有力的探测手段之一。而无线电探空因其直接的测量优势,能直观、确切地描述大气湿度垂直结构,可将其进一步处理生成云垂直结构信息,并作为一种数据源用于与毫米波雷达云垂直结构探测结果进行比对,以评估毫米波雷达针对云宏观垂直结构的探测性能,为毫米波雷达更好地应用于云探测提供参考。通过获取位于北京南郊观象台的毫米波雷达2014年10月28日至2015年2月17日长达113天连续观测的反射率因子以及探空温、压、湿数据,设计或选取合适的方法对二者进行云边界的计算,并进行云高(包括云底高和云顶高)以及云层数的一致性比对分析。结果认为,除对于高层云的云顶高度毫米波雷达由于探测限制不能探测到10 km以上的云顶,某些时刻与探空产生较大差异外,在云底高度以及中低云的云顶高度上可以与探空观测取得很好的匹配效果,对于云的垂直分层上二者也有较强的一致性。该毫米波雷达具有较为准确并连续刻画10 km以下云垂直结构的能力。 相似文献
90.
A long-term record of surface currents from a high-frequency radar system, along with near-surface hydrographic transects, moored current meter records, and satellite imagery, are analyzed to determine the relative importance of river discharge, wind, and tides in driving the surface flow in the Fraser River plume. The observations show a great deal of oceanographic and instrumental variability. However, averaged quantities yielded robust results. The effect of river flow, which determines buoyancy and inertia near the river mouth, was found by taking a long-term average. The resulting flow field was dominated by a jet with two asymmetric gyres; the anticyclonic gyre to the north had flow speeds consistent with geostrophy. The mean flow speed near the river mouth was 14.3?cm?s–1, while the flow further afield was 5?cm?s–1 or less. Wind stress and surface currents were highly coherent in the subtidal frequency band. Northwesterly winds drive a surface flow to the southeast at speeds of nearly 30?cm?s–1. Southeasterly winds drive a surface flow to the northwest at speeds reaching 20?cm?s–1; however, there is more spatial variability in speed and direction relative to the northwesterly wind case. A harmonic analysis was used to extract the tidally driven flows. Ellipse parameters for the major tidal constituents varied considerably in both alignment and aspect ratio over the radar domain, in direct contrast to a barotropic model which predicted rectilinear flow along the Strait of Georgia. This is a result of water filling and draining the shallow mud flats north of the Fraser's main channel. The M2 velocities at the surface were also weaker than their barotropic counterparts. However, the shallow water constituent MK3 was enhanced at the surface and nearly as strong as the mean flow, implying that non-linear interactions are important to surface dynamics. 相似文献