Solar Cycle Predictions based on Solar Activity at Different Solar Latitudes

Many methods of predictions of sunspot maximum number use data before or at the preceding sunspot minimum to correlate with the following sunspot maximum of the same cycle, which occurs a few years later. Kane and Trivedi (Solar Phys. 68, 135, 1980) found that correlations of R _z(max) (the maximum in the 12-month running means of sunspot number R _z) with R _z(min) (the minimum in the 12-month running means of sunspot number R _z) in the solar latitude belt 20° – 40°, particularly in the southern hemisphere, exceeded 0.6 and was still higher (0.86) for the narrower belt > 30° S. Recently, Javaraiah (Mon. Not. Roy. Astron. Soc. 377, L34, 2007) studied the relationship of sunspot areas at different solar latitudes and reported correlations 0.95 – 0.97 between minima and maxima of sunspot areas at low latitudes and sunspot maxima of the next cycle, and predictions could be made with an antecedence of more than 11 years. For the present study, we selected another parameter, namely, SGN, the sunspot group number (irrespective of their areas) and found that SGN(min) during a sunspot minimum year at latitudes > 30° S had a correlation +0.78±0.11 with the sunspot number R _z(max) of the same cycle. Also, the SGN during a sunspot minimum year in the latitude belt (10° – 30° N) had a correlation +0.87±0.07 with the sunspot number R _z(max) of the next cycle. We obtain an appropriate regression equation, from which our prediction for the coming cycle 24 is R _z(max )=129.7±16.3.     

Laboratory Exploration of Solar Energetic Phenomena

The solar atmosphere displays a wide variety of dynamic phenomena driven by the interaction of magnetic fields and plasma. In particular, plasma jets in the solar chromosphere and corona, coronal heating, solar flares and coronal mass ejections all point to the presence of magnetic phenomena such as reconnection, flux cancellation, the formation of magnetic islands, and plasmoids. While we can observe the signatures and gross features of such phenomena we cannot probe the essential physics driving them, given the spatial resolution of current instrumentation. Flexible and well-controlled laboratory experiments, scaled to solar parameters, open unique opportunities to reproduce the relevant unsteady phenomena under various simulated solar conditions. The ability to carefully control these parameters in the laboratory allows one to diagnose the dynamical processes which occur and to apply the knowledge gained to the understanding of similar processes on the Sun, in addition directing future solar observations and models. This talk introduces the solar phenomena and reviews the contributions made by laboratory experimentation.     

电离层E_S层对综合射束污染的初步分析

本文考虑到干涉仪对电离层中不同尺度不规则性的滤波作用、结合密云米波综合孔径系统、提出了电离层E_(?)层是电离层不规则性影响该系统的主要根源。不规则性的尺度约在700～1000米的范围。再考虑到E_(?)层的漂移运动,提出了文中所描述的模型。用电子计算机进行了E_(?)层对综合射束污染的模拟计算,结果指出:射束主瓣的增益下降约10％,副瓣由13％增大到18％;综合射束在赤经方向出现不对称性,从而引起约0.6秒的赤经误差;射束的边缘处和两个扇形区出现了杂瓣。     

关于光球横向磁场和电流的测定(英文)

本文给出了一个在观测中辨别光球横向磁场指向的一个判据。并证明了光球横向电流与横向磁场的指向无关,因而完全可以由向量磁象仪测定。     

ISA accelerometer onboard the Mercury Planetary Orbiter: error budget

We have estimated a preliminary error budget for the Italian Spring Accelerometer (ISA) that will be allocated onboard the Mercury Planetary Orbiter (MPO) of the European Space Agency (ESA) space mission to Mercury named BepiColombo. The role of the accelerometer is to remove from the list of unknowns the non-gravitational accelerations that perturb the gravitational trajectory followed by the MPO in the strong radiation environment that characterises the orbit of Mercury around the Sun. Such a role is of fundamental importance in the context of the very ambitious goals of the Radio Science Experiments (RSE) of the BepiColombo mission. We have subdivided the errors on the accelerometer measurements into two main families: (i) the pseudo-sinusoidal errors and (ii) the random errors. The former are characterised by a periodic behaviour with the frequency of the satellite mean anomaly and its higher order harmonic components, i.e., they are deterministic errors. The latter are characterised by an unknown frequency distribution and we assumed for them a noise-like spectrum, i.e., they are stochastic errors. Among the pseudo-sinusoidal errors, the main contribution is due to the effects of the gravity gradients and the inertial forces, while among the random-like errors the main disturbing effect is due to the MPO centre-of-mass displacements produced by the onboard High Gain Antenna (HGA) movements and by the fuel consumption and sloshing. Very subtle to be considered are also the random errors produced by the MPO attitude corrections necessary to guarantee the nadir pointing of the spacecraft. We have therefore formulated the ISA error budget and the requirements for the satellite in order to guarantee an orbit reconstruction for the MPO spacecraft with an along-track accuracy of about 1 m over the orbital period of the satellite around Mercury in such a way to satisfy the RSE requirements.     

Interference of spectral lines in thermal radiation from the lower atmosphere of Venus

The absorption spectrum and thermal radiation fluxes in the lower atmosphere of Venus are calculated using the theory of molecular state interference in the strong collision approximation. Comparison is made with the absorption and radiative transfer calculations in terms of the statistical theory of collisional line broadening and based on an empirical form factor. The calculations show that the line broadening mechanism does not affect the thermal regime of the atmosphere at heights above 60 km, but affects significantly the behavior of the greenhouse effect below the cloud layer.     

The primordial excitation and clearing of the asteroid belt—Revisited

We have performed new simulations of two different scenarios for the excitation and depletion of the primordial asteroid belt, assuming Jupiter and Saturn on initially circular orbits as predicted by the Nice Model of the evolution of the outer Solar System [Gomes, R., Levison, H.F., Tsiganis, K., Morbidelli, A., 2005. Nature 435, 466-469; Tsiganis, K., Gomes, R., Morbidelli, A., Levison, H.F., 2005. Nature 435, 459-461; Morbidelli, A., Levison, H.F., Tsiganis, K., Gomes, R., 2005. Nature 435, 462-465]. First, we study the effects of sweeping secular resonances driven by the depletion of the solar nebula. We find that these sweeping secular resonances are incapable of giving sufficient dynamical excitation to the asteroids for nebula depletion timescales consistent with estimates for solar-type stars, and in addition cannot cause significant mass depletion in the asteroid belt or produce the observed radial mixing of different asteroid taxonomic types. Second, we study the effects of planetary embryos embedded in the primordial asteroid belt. These embedded planetary embryos, combined with the action of jovian and saturnian resonances, can lead to dynamical excitation and radial mixing comparable to the current asteroid belt. The mass depletion driven by embedded planetary embryos alone, even in the case of an eccentric Jupiter and Saturn, is roughly 10-20× less than necessary to explain the current mass of the main belt, and thus a secondary depletion event, such as that which occurs naturally in the Nice Model, is required. We discuss the implications of our new simulations for the dynamical and collisional evolution of the main belt.     

关于太阳厘米-分米波段频谱日像仪研究进展

摘要：在无线电波段进行射电观测是研究太阳的一个十分重要的手段，不同波段的无线电波反映出不同的特性和状态，其辐射频率与环境参数密切相关。当探测出某一频率上的无线电辐射后，即可诊断源区的电子密度或磁场。因此，建设厘米-分米波段频谱日像仪将首次在该波段上实现同时以高空间、高时间和高频率分辨率观测太阳活动的动力学性质，探测日冕大气。对于太阳物理研究具有重要作用。本文介绍该项目的科学意义、技术方案及预研进展情况。