Structure of Réunion Island (Indian Ocean) inferred from the interpretation of gravity anomalies

Réunion is a volcanic edifice whose origin is related to a hot spot in the Indian Ocean. Only 3% of its volume is emergent. Many geological and geophysical studies were carried out on Réunion Island during the 1980's but few of them allow study of the internal structure of the edifice. Several gravity surveys have been carried out on the island since 1976 and we have compiled the available data set. The lack of data on the western side of the island led us to conduct a regional survey in 1993 to obtain a more homogeneous distribution of the stations. Computation of Bouguer anomalies for different correction densities accounts for the variable density of the rocks constituting the edifice and provides a distribution of gravity anomalies interpreted as dense bodies of intrusive rocks inside the edifice. Two very large intrusive complexes can be unambiguously recognised: one beneath Piton des Neiges and one beneath the Grand Brûlé area. Both have been penetrated by geothermal exploration drill holes and the first is also known from outcrop observations. 2.5D simple models were constructed to reveal the geometry and extent of the buried intrusives. They are deeply rooted, extending several kilometres below sea level, and extensive (20–25 km long and 10–13 km wide for the Piton des Neiges complex, 12–15 km long and some kilometres wide for the Grand Brûlé complex). The development of such complexes implies that the activity of the two volcanic centres was long lasting and remained stable while the volcanoes were growing. The Grand Brûlé complex has been interpreted as relics of an old volcano named Alizés Volcano. The interpretation of the gravity maps suggests the presence of a ridge of dense rocks to the North of the axis joining the centres of Piton des Neiges and Piton de la Fournaise volcanoes. By analogy with the other structures, 2.5D models show that this structure would culminate between 0 and 1 km below sea level and be 15 km wide. This complex induces a maximum anomaly in Takamaka Valley and we thus propose to name it Takamaka Volcano. No geological evidence of the nature of these dense rocks is available but the ridge coincides with structures revealed by magnetic and seismic data. Interpretation of the Bouguer anomaly maps suggests that the inner gravity structure of Piton de la Fournaise is not characterised by the presence of a voluminous dense body but probably by more restricted concentrations of dense rocks. Some structures can be recognised: along the present NE and SE rift zones and in the previous central part of Piton de la Fournaise to the West of the present summit. The recent eastward migration of the centre of activity of Piton de la Fournaise accounts for the lack of a large positive anomaly beneath the active craters.     

1983年山东菏泽5.9级地震地下流体异常的检验性预测

本文对１９８３年山东菏５．９级地震震中周围２００ｋｍ范围内８口井１７个测地下流体观测资料,采用地下流体群体异常演化层次跟踪法,对菏治５．９级地震进行了中期,短期和短临三个时间尺度的震情预测,     

Strength and deformation behavior of the Shimanto accretionary complex across the Nobeoka thrust

A rapid reduction in sediment porosity from 60 to 70 % at seafloor to less than 10 % at several kilometers depth can play an important role in deformation and seismicity in the shallow portion of subduction zones. We conducted deformation experiments on rocks from an ancient accretionary complex, the Shimanto Belt, across the Nobeoka Thrust to understand the deformation behaviors of rocks along plate boundary faults at seismogenic depth. Our experimental results for phyllites in the hanging wall and shale‐tuff mélanges in the footwall of the Nobeoka Thrust indicate that the Shimanto Belt rocks fail brittlely accompanied by a stress drop at effective pressures < 80 MPa, whereas they exhibit strain hardening at higher effective pressures. The transition from brittle to ductile behavior in the shale–tuff mélanges lies on the same trend in effective stress–porosity space as that for clay‐rich and tuffaceous sediments subducting into the modern Nankai subduction zone. Both the absolute yield strength and the effective pressure at the brittle–ductile transition for the phyllosilicate‐rich materials are much lower than for sandstones. These results suggest that as the clay‐rich or tuffaceous sediments subduct and their porosities are reduced, their deformation behavior gradually transitions from ductile to brittle and their yield strength increases. Our results also suggest that samples of the ancient Shimanto accretionary prism can serve as an analog for underthrust rocks at seismogenic depth in the modern Nankai Trough.     

Evaluation of snow water equivalent datasets over the Saint‐Maurice river basin region of southern Québec

A 10‐km gridded snow water equivalent (SWE) dataset is developed over the Saint‐Maurice River basin region in southern Québec from kriging of observed snow survey data for evaluation of SWE products. The gridded SWE dataset covers 1980–2014 and is based on manual gravimetric snow surveys carried out on February 1, March 1, March 15, April 1, and April 15 of each snow season, which captures the annual maximum SWE (SWEM) with a mean interpolation error of ±19%. The dataset is used to evaluate SWEM from a range of sources including satellite retrievals, reanalyses, Canadian regional climate models, and the Canadian Meteorological Centre operational snow depth analysis. We also evaluate a number of solid precipitation datasets to determine their contribution to systematic errors in estimated SWEM. None of the evaluated datasets is able to provide estimates of SWEM that are within operational requirements of ±15% error, and insufficient solid precipitation is determined to be one of the main reasons. The Climate System Forecast Reanalysis is the only dataset where snowfall is sufficiently large to generate SWEM values comparable to observations. Inconsistencies in precipitation are also found to have a strong impact on year‐to‐year variability in SWEM dataset performance and spread. Version 3.6.1 of the Canadian Land Surface Scheme land surface scheme driven with ERA‐Interim output downscaled by Version 5.0.1 of the Canadian Regional Climate Model was the best physically based model at explaining the observed spatial and temporal variability in SWEM (root‐mean‐square error [RMSE] = 33%) and has potential for lower error with adjusted precipitation. Operational snow products relying on the real‐time snow depth observing network performed poorly due to a lack of real‐time data and the strong local scale variability of point snow depth observations. The results underscore the need for more effort to be invested in improving solid precipitation estimates for use in snow hydrology applications.     

Biostratigraphy,sedimentology and sequence stratigraphy of the Tournaisian–Viséan transitional strata in South China (Guangxi)

The biostratigraphy and sedimentological evolution of the Tournaisian–Viséan (T–V) transitional strata in South China (Guangxi) have been investigated. The sediments were deposited on a carbonate platform and in slope and basinal environments. In the T–V transitional strata, six foraminiferal associations have been distinguished which allow correlation between the shallow and deep water deposits. A careful examination of the evolutionary stages of the foraminifer Eoparastaffella provides a more accurate criterion for the definition of the T–V boundary, but does not significantly modify the historical one. The distinction of two morphotypes is based on the elevation of the last whorl and the peripheral outline. Tournaisian specimens of Eoparastaffella have a well rounded periphery (morphotype 1) contrasting with the subangular periphery of younger Viséan specimens (morphotype 2). A coefficient can be deduced from simple biometric measurements for more precisely defining the T–V boundary. The sequence stratigraphy of the T–V strata in South China has been reconstructed by combining biostratigraphical and sedimentological data. It allowed the correlation of the T–V transitional strata between the platform area and the slope and basinal locations. Late Tournaisian strata were deposited during a highstand systems tract. Near the end of the Tournaisian, a major drop in relative sea-level led to the development of an unconformity in the platform area. Lowstand deposits formed during latest Tournaisian time in the basin where a detailed biostratigraphic framework has been devised. Sediments deposited during the ensuing transgressive systems tract overlie the late Tournaisian highstand sediments in the platform area and the latest Tournaisian lowstand deposits in the basin. A major drop in relative sea-level near the end of the Tournaisian has been recognized worldwide. Therefore, the possibility of using the sequence stratigraphy of the T–V strata in South China for worldwide correlations should be investigated. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Radiolarian‐based study on the fabric and the formation process of the Early Cretaceous mélange near Zhongba,Yarlung–Tsangpo Suture Zone,southern Tibet

The Yarlung–Tsangpo Suture Zone (YTSZ), as the southernmost and youngest among the sutures that subdivides the Tibetan Plateau into several east–west trending blocks, marks where the Neo‐Tethys was consumed as the Indian continent moved northward and collided against the Eurasian continent. Mélanges in the YTSZ represent the remnants of the oceanic plate through subduction and collision. Mélanges are characterized by a highly sheared volcanoclastic or siliceous mudstone matrix including blocks of chert, claystone, and basalt. Detailed radiolarian analyses are conducted on the mélange near Zhongba County. Macroscopic, mesoscopic, and microscopic observations are combined in order to elucidate the relationships among age, lithology, and structure of blocks in the mélange. Reconstructed ocean plate stratigraphy includes Lower Jurassic limestone within the chert sequence accumulated at a depth near the CCD (Unit 2), Upper Jurassic thin‐bedded chert interbedded with claystone deposited in the wide ocean basin (Unit 3), and Lower Cretaceous chert with siliceous mudstone (Units 4 and 5), representing the middle parts of ocean plate stratigraphy. The results highlight the fabric of brecciated chert on mesoscopic scale, which is thought to be due to localized overpressure. The formation of mesoscopic and microscopic block‐in‐matrix fabrics in the mélange is proposed for the chert and siliceous mudstone bearing different extents of consolidation and competence during the progressive deformation of accreted sediments at shallow‐level subduction.     

Coleopteran evidence for a mosaic of environments at high altitude in the eastern Pyrénées,France, during the climatic transition between the Allerød and Younger Dryas

Late‐glacial environmental and climatic implications are inferred from an insect fauna from organic sediments infilling a palaeochannel on the banks of the River Têt, eastern Pyrénées, France. A pine cone in association with the insect fauna has been radiocarbon dated to 10 920 ± 60 yr BP, namely close to the Allerød – Younger Dryas boundary. Two distinct insect associations appear to be recognisable here. One is an assemblage typical of the high altitude forest and a second is characteristic of an alpine grassland. The close coexistence of these two assemblages is attributed to the climatic cooling towards the start of the Younger Dryas Stadial, when the forest cover broke up into remnant patches interspersed by alpine grassland. It is suggested that in a region of such high relief a mosaic of habitats may have been caused by patchy differences in insolation aspect, especially during a period of climatic deterioration. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

吉林通化地震台四分量钻孔应变在日本9.0级地震前后的变化特征

基于通化地震台四分量应变观测,通过K-L最佳直线拟合及傅立叶滑动去年周期对数据进行处理,进一步分析日本9.0级地震前后应变变化特征。结果表明,K-L最佳直线拟合和傅立叶滑动去年周期,可以较好地消除通化台应变观测中的长趋势变化项和年变成分,使应力应变的微动态变化更加显著地表现出来;通化台四分量应变在日本9.0级地震前的压性变化与同一构造带的另外两个台站分量应变观测的大幅压性变化一致;日本9.0级地震使通化台面应变出现持续约8个月左右的扩张变化,变化性质与由GPS计算得到的同震位移结果较为一致。     

The prediction for seismicity trends of M≥8 in the world by analysis of seismicity patterns

After completion of a study on predicting risky zones of earthquake of M≥8 for 1-3 years in the mainland of China,which was supported by Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation(D07018 and D08009),a further study was extended to that of greater magnitudes in the world.Based on the historical earthquake cases,we finished the research report,forecasting global earthquakes with magnitude more than 8.0 using the image analysis of seismicity.In this research report,we summarize 11 abnormal seismicity images for predicting earthquake of M≥8.0 around the world.In our research report,we predicted earthquakes of M≥8.0 from June 2009 to June 2014,the medium term predicting within 5 years period.Among these 5 predictive areas,three earthquakes occurred,which is Samoa M8.1 Earthquake on 29 September 2009,Talca M8.5 Earthquake on 27 January 2010,Chile,and Eastern Sendai M9.0 Earthquake on 11 March 2011,Japan respectively.Here we introduce the main items of the image analysis of seismicity and we predict three earthquakes and think that the image analysis of seismicity can be of help.     

应用九层全球大气格点模式进行跨季度短期气候预测系统性试验

利用中国科学院大气物理研究所9层大气环流模式（IAP9L AGCM）对夏季气候进行了30年（ 1970～1999年）集合回报试验,并采用统计学分析方法对跨季度夏季短期气候的可预测性问 题进行了初步探讨. 结果表明,该模式对对流层中、高层大气环流的预测能力强于低层,位 势高度场和表面气温的可预测性最大,而降水的可预测性则相对较小. 对流层中、高层位势 高度场的可预测性基本呈带状分布,越靠近赤道可预测性越高;而降水的可预测性基本局限 于赤道东太平洋及热带个别区域. 由此可见,降水的预测极为困难和复杂,订正系 统的研究和寻找新的预报物理因子非常重要. 