Methods for Measuring Seismicity Rate Changes: A Review and a Study of How the M w 7.3 Landers Earthquake Affected the Aftershock Sequence of the M w 6.1 Joshua Tree Earthquake

The development of fault interaction models has triggered the need for an accurate estimation of seismicity rate changes following the occurrence of an earthquake. Several statistical methods have been developed in the past to serve this purpose, each relying on different assumptions (e.g., stationarity, gaussianity) pertaining to the seismicity process.In this paper we review these various approaches, discuss their limitations, and propose further improvements. The feasibility of mapping robust seismicity rate changes, and more particularly rate decreases (i.e., seismicity shadows), in the first few days of an aftershock sequence, is examined. To this aim, the hypothesis of large numbers of earthquakes, hence the use of Gaussian statistics, as is usually assumed, must be dropped.Finally, we analyse the modulation in seismicity rates following the 1992, June 28 M_w 7.3 Landers earthquake in the region of the 1992, April 22 M_w 6.1 Joshua Tree earthquake. Clear instances of early triggering (i.e., in the first few days) followed by a seismicity quiescence, are observed. This could indicate the existence of two distinct interaction regimes, a first one caused by the destabilisation of active faults by the travelling seismic waves, and a second one due to the remaining static stress perturbation.     

Transient disturbance produced in an elastic half-space by impulsive shearing traction distributed over a circular region

The displacement produced in a semi-infinite, homogeneous, isotropic elastic medium by the application of shearing traction over a circular portion of the half-space has been evaluated in exact form by Cagniard's Technique (Cagniard, 1962;Gakenheimer andMiklowitz, 1969).     

地震学中的某些非线性现象的初步分析

本文对地震中的一些现象,如小震调制、共维时间、共维面积以及嵌套调制和混沌的预报尺度进行了初步的分析和探讨,对我们关于前兆的复杂性以及对地震预报的进一步认识有一定的参考价值。     

基于泊松分布的地震烈度发生概率模型

地震烈度发生概率和地震烈度超越概率都是衡量场地地震危险性的重要指标，地震烈度发生概率的计算民是人们比较关注的问题之定。本文根据目前工程地震和地震减灾研究中比较常用的Ｃｏｒｎｅｌｌ类地震活动性模型和反映地震时，空，强非均匀性的地震活动性模型，推导了场地地震烈度发生概率和计算表达式，通过计算实例，讨论了其与场地地震烈度极值概率（即超越概率差，通常被用来替代地震烈率发生概率）的差异，认为在一般情况下，两     

The detection and recognition of underground nuclear explosions

This paper reports on a joint meeting of the Royal Astronomical Society's Joint Association for Geophysics and VERTIC (the Verification Technology Information Centre) held in London in 1992. The topics presented focused on the detection and recognition of underground nuclear explosions. The objective of the meeting was to emphasize the multi-methodological approach that is important in verifying compliance with test-ban treaties. An overview of seismological monitoring was followed by a discussion of the technical and scientific aspects of a global seismic monitoring network, and in particular of the 1991 experiment to test the large-scale international exchange of seismic data between recording stations and data centres world-wide. The current capabilities of satellite remote-sensing were presented, and their use explained in terms of both the provision of information for monitoring the development of foreign nuclear testing programmes and also for providing sufficient information for the evaluation of treaty compliance. A review of radio-isotope sampling showed how the isotopic signature of both air and ground based sampling programmes can be diagnostic of the nuclear source. Finally, previously classified research on the ionospheric effects of underground nuclear explosions was presented, the generated acoustic waves disturbing the ionosphere and producing detectable changes in the reflection of radio and radar signals which have potential as a monitoring technique.     

核电厂选址地震安全评价中的发震构造与能动断层

本文主要根据《黄河黑山峡河段地震地质补充论证工作报告》1,对黄河黑山峡河段大柳树坝址区主要地震地质问题,包括1709年中卫7?级地震的地表破裂带长度,F201断层的规模,坝址区F3、F7断层晚更新世以来是否被F201断层“牵动”,坝址区不同级别断层的深浅构造关系等主要方面的研究进展作一概要介绍。2     

In-plane seismic response of inhomogeneous alluvial valleys with vertical gradients of velocities and constant Poisson ratio

The propagation of seismic P and SV waves within inhomogeneous alluvial valleys has been investigated using the indirect boundary element method (IBEM). An improvement on the formulae published early, for the 2D Green's functions in an inhomogeneous medium is presented in this work. A modification has been done over these functions in view of its connection to the ray theory. An accuracy analysis validates these modified Green's functions computing the relative error in frequency domain for the SH case, and with a quantitative analysis obtaining envelope and phase misfits of the solution in time domain, for the P–SV case.     

On intermediate-term earthquake prediction in central Italy

The Time of Increased Probability (TIP) for the occurrence of a strong earthquake is determined in Central Italy. This is done with an algorithm that has been successfully applied in other regions of the world (algorithm CN, from the initials of California and Nevada, where the first diagnoses of TIPs were made). The use of normalized functions allows direct application of the orginal algorithm to the new region being studied, without anyad hoc adjustment of the parameters.Retrospective analysis carried on until 1986 shows that TIPs occupy 26 percent of the total time considered and precede four out of five strong earthquakes. Forward monitoring indicates the possible existence of a TIP started in May 1988.Several tests indicate that the results obtained are quite stable, even when using catalogues from different agencies. Apart from obvious practical interest, this research is essential for the worldwide investigation of self-similarity in the origin of strong earthquakes.     

华南中强震前区域地震活动增强平静特征

研究了华南地区19次中强地震前区域地震活动的增强与平静特征,并据此提取了华南地区短期预报指标,即增强—平静后,3个月内发震;地震发生在异常平静区;震级一般为中强地震。