对中国本世纪第五次大震高潮的探讨

本文首先指出从1988年11月澜沧7.6级地震开始,中国可能已进入了本世纪的第五次大震活动高潮,并将持续到2000年左右,之后将中国划分成十余个地震带,通过各带地震活动强度起伏的节律分析以及外部环境条件的辅助论证,确定出了滇、川、藏、青、北疆和东北深震区是本次大震的主体活动地区,并大致给出了它们发震的时间顺序。     

龙门山南段山前天全-乐山剖面磁组构研究及其对新生代构造变形的指示意义

四川盆地西南部西侧为龙门山冲断带,南面紧挨川西南褶皱带,其新生代构造变形特征对于认识青藏高原东南缘的变形机制具有一定的指示意义.磁组构是一种灵敏的应变指示计,在变形微弱的沉积岩地区尤为适用.本文在雅安-乐山剖面选取12个采样点进行磁组构分析,结合已有的天全-雅安飞仙关剖面的27个采样点数据,综合讨论川西南地区的构造变形特征.所有采样点的磁组构测试结果显示出3种弱变形的磁组构类型:沉积磁组构、初始变形磁组构和铅笔状磁组构.雅安-乐山剖面采样点的磁线理绝大部分为北东-南西走向,和龙门山南段的整体延伸方向一致,表明四川盆地西南缘新生代构造变形主要受控于龙门山的构造作用.飞仙关剖面的磁组构测试结果显示44%的采样点表现出磁线理和地层走向斜交的特征,由初始变形磁组构演变而来,并且所有异常磁组构仅局限在断层上盘,本文认为这是雅安地区新生代期间局部逆时针旋转引起变形叠加的结果.     

液核地球自转速率变化的带谐潮效应Ⅰ--理论公式

根据液核地球动力学原理,重新推导了在日月子引潮力作用下的地球自转速率变化的理论公式,由此明确地引入了液核影响因子,它与地球和液核的极转动惯量的变化有关。不同于Yoder.C.F(1981)的理论,本文给出了基于引潮力位Doodson展开的地球自转速率变化、日长变化和世界时变化的理论公式,指出尺度因子的转动惯量应取为地幔的有效极转动惯量,Love数应取地幔的有效Love数的理由。     

Abrupt alteration of Asteroid 2004 MN4's spin state during its 2029 Earth flyby

We predict that when Asteroid 2004 MN4 passes 5.6±1.4 Earth radii from Earth's center on April 13, 2029, terrestrial torques during the flyby will alter its spin state in a dramatic manner that will be observable using groundbased telescopes. Although the asteroid will most likely not undergo catastrophic disruption, it may be subject to localized failure across its surface and interior, providing a unique opportunity to measure otherwise inaccessible mechanical properties of an asteroid.     

Evolution of NEO rotation rates due to close encounters with Earth and Venus

In this paper we study the statistical effect of planetary flybys on the rotation rates and states of Near Earth Objects (NEOs). Our approach combines numerical and analytical methods within a Monte Carlo model that simulates the evolution of the NEO spin rates. We take as input for the simulation a source distribution of spin states and evolve it to find their steady state distribution. In performing this evolution we track the changes in the spin rate and state distribution for the different components of the NEO population. We show that the cumulative effect of planetary encounters is to spin up the overall population of NEOs. This spin up effect holds on average only, and particular members of the population may experience an overall decrease in rotation rate. This effect is clearly seen across all components of the NEO population and is significant both statistically and physically. For initially slow rotators the spin up effect is strong, lowering the mean rotation period by 32%. For faster rotating populations the effect is less, lowering the spin period by 15% for the intermediate case, 6% for fast rotating rubble piles, and 8% for fast rotating monoliths. Physically, the spin up effect pushes 1% of the fast rotating rubble-pile NEOs over the disruption limit, while 6% of these bodies experience a sub-disruption event that could modify their physical structure. For monolithic NEOs, the spin up effect is self-limiting, reaching a minimum spin period of 1.1 hr, with a strong cut-off between 2-3 hr. This has two implications. First, it may not be necessary to invoke the rubble-pile hypothesis to recover a cut-off in spin period. Second, it shows that planetary flybys cannot account for the extremely rapid rotation rates of some small NEOs. We also tested a different balance between the effects of Earth and Venus by treating the Aten sub-class of asteroids separately. Due to increased interactions with the planets, the spin up effect is more pronounced (10%) and disruptions increase by a factor of three. The slow rotation tails of the spin distributions are increased to longer periods, in general, with rotation periods of over 100 hr occurring for a few tenths of a percent for some component populations. Thus, this mechanism may account for some of the noted excess in slow rotators among the NEOs. Planetary flybys also cause NEOs to enter a tumbling state, with approximately 0.5% of the population being placed into a long-axis rotation mode. Finally, based on the evolution of spin states of different components of the NEO population, we compared the evolved states with the measured distribution of NEOs to estimate the relative populations of these components that comprise the NEOs.     

全球海洋对极移周年运动的激发

目前海洋对极移季节变化的激发尚未得到合理的定量结果.许多研究已经表明大气运动是极移季节变化最大的激发源,海洋运动是剩余部分最主要的激发源之一.利用新一代SODA海洋同化资料(SODA_1.4.2和SODA_1.4.3)以及ECCO海洋同化资料,深入研究了1992—2004年全球海洋对极移周年变化的激发以及激发随纬度的分布.结果表明,SODA海洋激发的季节变化与从测地激发函数中扣除大气、陆地水作用剩余部分的季节变化在所研究的大部分时段非常接近,二者的周年振幅和位相结果基本相当.此外,与早期SODA_Beta 7的结果比较,新一代的SODA海洋激发有了明显改善.SODA和ECCO海洋对极移周年激发的纬度分布,在格林威治方向上比较一致;在东经90°方向上有明显的差别.     

Convection in the Presence of an Inclined Axis of Rotation with Applications to the Sun

Thermal convection in a horizontal fluid layer heated from below and rotating about an arbitrary axis is studied analytically with the attention focused on mean flows and drifts generated by the convection velocity field. Mean flows occur in both horizontal directions when the angle between the rotation vector and the vertical is finite but less than 90°. In the case of a hexagonal convection pattern, a wavelike drift is found in the presence of a horizontal component of rotation. Applications to solar convection are discussed. Considering the simplicity of the model the agreement with observations is surprisingly good.     

浅谈板块运动的动力

在对固体潮计算的基础上,提出固体潮很可能是使印度洋板块向南挤压中国大陆的力源,而地球自转角速度的变化很可能是太平洋板块沿东西方向挤压中国大陆的力源。     

根据走滑大地震前后应力轴偏转和应力降求取偏应力量值的研究

运用走滑地震造成的地震前后应力方向偏转和地震应力降Δτ推导得到地震震源处偏应力量值τ的解析表达式为τ=［Δτcos2(φ′[KG-*2]P-E)］/sin2(φ′[KG-*2]P-φP)(其中,φ\-P和φ′[KG-*2]P分别为地震前后的统计P轴走向,E为地震断层走向.).当震前P轴与震后P轴与断层走向夹角为45°时,该公式失效.对偏应力值与应力降比值随应力场主压应力轴与断层走向夹角及应力场主压应力轴偏转的变化进行分析表明,相同应力降造成的应力轴偏转越大,地下偏应力越小; 断层走向越接近主压应力轴方向,地震应力降场对偏应力场的贡献越小.将该方法运用于Landers地震震源区,求得了该地震Homestead Valley段的偏应力量值为10MPa.     

地球重力场恢复中的位旋转效应

分析了地球自转引起的位旋转效应公式中采用近似速度的影响. 对一组GFZ的快速科学轨道、一组TUM的约化动力法轨道以及一组GFZ的事后科学轨道,计算了星历提供的速度与只有地球引力场对卫星产生作用时的卫星速度的差值,其中参考重力场模型分别采用EGM96、EIGEN2和EIGEN_CG01C. 通过比较得出：轨道数据与EIGEN2地球重力场模型的自恰性优于EGM96和EIGEN_CG01C地球重力场模型. 速度差各分量的变化具有很明显的周期性且与卫星轨道的运行周期相吻合. 当要求在卫星轨迹处获得1m2/s2精度的扰动位时,也即要求位旋转效应公式中卫星速度的近似精度小于2mm/s时,GFZ的快速科学轨道、TUM的约化动力法轨道只需要剔除那些速度精度不满足要求的卫星轨迹点;当要求在卫星轨迹处获得05m2/s2精度的扰动位时,应当重新估算上述轨道的速度信息,或采用精度更高的GFZ事后科学轨道.