永胜形变台记录到的澜沧-耿马地震的破裂过程

本文以永胜地震台FSQ型浮子水管倾斜仪原始记录图形为基础,介绍了澜沧-耿马大震前后的地形变特征,探讨了大震破裂的前后过程。这些珍贵的原始记录图型,对今后该区7级以上大震的短临预报可能具有重要的参考价值。     

EVACUATION BEHAVIOR IN RESPONSE TO NUCLEAR POWER PLANT ACCIDENTS*

A telephone survey of 2,595 households on Long Island, NY provides a data base for analyzing potential spatial behaviors in response to an accident at the Shoreham Nuclear Power Station in Suffolk County. These intended behaviors approximated the actual behaviors of Three Mile Island area residents during the general emergency at that plant in 1979. Using evacuations from natural and other technological hazards as a basis for comparison, we conclude that evacuations in response to nuclear power plant accidents are likely to be characterized by an extreme over-response to limited protective action advisories; this phenomenon needs to be considered in behaviorally-based radiological emergency response planning.     

利用时空内插及数据正规化辅助方法监测地震前热异常

应用卫星热红外遥感图像提取震前温度变化信息,会碰到云干扰以及信息提取方法的科学性等课题.为了减少云干扰,本研究使用时空内插法来填补或复原受云影响的网格温度; 为了客观监测及记录增温现象,研究设定正规化标准值与阀值,使计算机半自动监测相对高温区,并利用不同时期图像云影移动及影像镶嵌技术,还原被云遮蔽的增温区,以期能科学反映地热异常现象,利于后续震前增温异常前兆研究的进行.     

The Hurst phenomenon and fractional Gaussian noise made easy

Abstract

The Hurst phenomenon, which characterizes hydrological and other geophysical time series, is formulated and studied in an easy manner in terms of the variance and autocorrelation of a stochastic process on multiple temporal scales. In addition, a simple explanation of the Hurst phenomenon based on the fluctuation of a hydrological process upon different temporal scales is presented. The stochastic process that was devised to represent the Hurst phenomenon, i.e. the fractional Gaussian noise, is also studied on the same grounds. Based on its studied properties, three simple and fast methods to generate fractional Gaussian noise, or good approximations of it, are proposed.     

Dairy of forthcoming events

Abstract

Due to its great importance, the availability of long flow records, contemporary as well as older, and the additional historical information of its behaviour, the Nile is an ideal test case for identifying and understanding hydrological behaviours, and for model development. Such behaviours include the long-term persistence, which historically has motivated the discovery of the Hurst phenomenon and has put into question classical statistical results and typical stochastic models. Based on the empirical evidence from the exploration of the Nile flows and on the theoretical insights provided by the principle of maximum entropy, a concept newly employed in hydrological stochastic modelling, an advanced yet simple stochastic methodology is developed. The approach is focused on the prediction of the Nile flow a month ahead, but the methodology is general and can be applied to any type of stochastic prediction. The stochastic methodology is also compared with deterministic approaches, specifically an analogue (local nonlinear chaotic) model and a connectionist (artificial neural network) model based on the same flow record. All models have good performance with the stochastic model outperforming in prediction skills and the analogue model in simplicity. In addition, the stochastic model has other elements of superiority such as the ability to provide long-term simulations and to improve understanding of natural behaviours.     

基于非线性MASK的遥感影像匀光算法

MASK匀光算法广泛应用于光学遥感图像增强领域,以消除影像的光照不均匀现象,但传统MASK匀光算法处理过的图像,存在反差不均匀现象,且易丢失原始影像的细节信息.针对传统MASK算法的不足,文章提出了一种基于局部统计特征的非线性MASK匀光算法,通过实际遥感图像实验,证明本文方法能在减小原始影像细节信息损失的前提下,消除光照不均匀的现象,且处理之后的图像反差得到增强,整体趋于一致,匀光效果较为理想.     

南黄海冷水团海域溶解氧和叶绿素最大现象值及营养盐累积的季节演变

基于2006-2007年在南黄海冷水团海域开展的4个季度月的调查资料, 重点研究了该海域溶解氧(DO)、叶绿素a(Chl a)最大值现象和营养盐累积的季节演变规律。结果表明:春至秋季黄海冷水团海域DO和Chl a最大值层深度具有先加深后变浅的趋势, 出现最大值层的海域面积呈现出先增大后缩小的变化过程, DO和Chl a最大值层的深度及面积在夏季均达到最大, 至冬季DO和Chl a最大值现象消失;夏季冷水团海域深水区DO最大值处的氧含量整体高于春季, 而冷水团边界附近氧最大值处的氧含量整体低于春季;春至秋季冷水域深水区次表层Chl a最大值处的Chl a含量先降低后升高, 于夏季时最低, 入秋后开始升高, 而一年四季中冷水域边界附近Chl a最大值处的Chl a含量却在夏季时最高, 而且显著高于深水区。黄海冷水团海域的底层营养盐储库具有一定的空间异质性, 冷水域底层通常分别在深水区和西部边界处存在营养盐高值核心, 其中位于深水区的高值核心位置季节变化不明显, 而位于冷水域西部边界附近的高值核心位置则呈现出自春季至夏季向西移动、入秋后又向东部移动的季节变化特征。水文物理因素和生物化学过程对DO、Chl a最大值及营养盐储库的季节演变具有重要的调控作用。     

ENSO循环与黄河上游径流的丰枯

分析了黄河上游径流主要形成区——唐乃亥以上流域的气象和水文特性,在此基础上,根据 El Nino 现象及 La Nina 现象与黄河上游径流的丰枯的对应关系,探讨了 ENSO 事件对黄河上游径流的影响。统计结果表明,ENSO 现象与黄河上游唐乃亥以上流域的径流丰枯有着密切的关系。总体而言,伴随着 El Nino 事件的发生,黄河上游出现枯水的概率较大,而黄河上游的洪水常伴随着 La Nina 事件发生。     

Simulation of particles settling in power-law fluids by combined lattice Boltzmann-smoothed profile methods

In the current study, the settling, interaction, drafting, kissing, and tumbling of two identical and non-identical circular particles were simulated in a two-dimensional box in shear-thinning, Newtonian, and shear-thickening fluids by using the combined lattice Boltzmann-smoothed profile methods. Furthermore, the drag coefficient of one particle settling for different power-law indexes and Archimedes numbers was calculated. Also, the effect of the diameter ratio of the two particle pairs was considered during settling. The developed method was validated by simulating the settling of one particle and two identical particles in a Newtonian fluid. To consider two non-identical particles, two cases were examined. In Case A, the larger particle was above the smaller one and in the Case B, the smaller particle was above the larger one. The results showed that the two non-identical particles were separated more easily than the identical ones. In the settling of two particles under the same Archimedes number, the drafting and kissing time considerably increased by changing the non-Newtonian fluid behavior from a shear-thinning one to a shear-thickening one. Also, when the larger particle was above the smaller one, the time duration of the kissing stage increased with the decrease in the diameter ratio.     

雨滴谱式降水现象仪与人工观测结果的一致性分析

为验证雨滴谱式降水现象仪的测量性能,利用南京市气象局在江宁布设的PARSIVEL型雨滴谱式降水现象仪2018年1-11月期间的天气现象观测资料,重点分析了雨滴谱式降水现象仪对不同类型降水的测量性能.结果表明:①总体而言,雨滴谱式降水现象仪与人工观测具有良好的一致性,但是在降水时间、降水类型方面存在一定差异.②白天,人工...