考虑LS+AR模型基础数据量的极移预报研究

针对目前极移最小二乘(Least Square, LS)+自回归(AutoRegressive, AR)预报模型的单一数据选取方案, 提出分别考虑LS模型数据量和AR残差数据量的组合数据模式, 并对极移预报时单一数据和组合数据预报结果精度进行分析, 探讨模型输入数据量对极移预报精度的影响. 结果表明, 模型输入数据量的变化对极移预报结果影响较大. 采用组合数据预报的方式相比较于单一数据量预报方式精度更高, 特别是针对30--360 d跨度内的中长期预报, 组合数据量的极移预报精度可比单一数据量预报精度有较大改善. 结论证明组合数据在极移预报时具有一定的优势, 可为以后极移预报数据量选取提供一定的借鉴参考意义.     

Tangled lines in New Zealand's quota management system: The process of including recreational fisheries

This article uses New Zealand as a case study of processes relating to the inclusion of recreational fisheries in modern fisheries management systems based on Individual Transferable Quotas (ITQs). The New Zealand case highlights challenges governments often meet when attempting to integrate the recreational sector into fisheries management, including: (a) resistance to restrictions on what has historically been free-of-charge public access to fish for recreational purposes and (b) the fragmented character of the recreational sector, which makes it difficult to have recreational interests attend to their management role and responsibilities.     

Algorithms for automatic,real-time tsunami detection in wind–wave measurements Part I: Implementation strategies and basic tests

Several, although not all, wind–wave gages are equipped with sensors capable of detecting sea-level oscillations within the tsunami frequency band. The present paper looks at the algorithms to be implemented in the software of these gages in order to automatically perform the real-time detection of a possible tsunami within recorded signals. In particular, a new algorithm is proposed and tested. The first part of the paper concentrates on the algorithms' characteristics, implementation strategies and basic testing. First of all, the situations in which wind–wave measurements are either essential, or useful for real-time tsunami detection are discussed. In the second place, already existing algorithms are recalled, specifying their characteristics and fields of application. Then, the characteristics of the new proposed algorithm – mainly based on an infinite impulse response, time domain filter – are illustrated and analyzed. Performance and efficiency of the considered algorithms are compared using synthetic time series. The second part of the paper discusses the algorithms' use in the framework of Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS), testing them in actual cases.     

Stability of outer planetary orbits around binary stars: A comparison of Hill's and Laplace's stability criteria

A comparison is made between the stability criteria of Hill and that of Laplace to determine the stability of outer planetary orbits encircling binary stars. The restricted, analytically determined results of Hill's method by Szebehely and co-workers and the general, numerically integrated results of Laplace's method by Graziani and Black are compared for varying values of the mass parameter =m ₂/(m ₁+m ₂). For 00.15, the closest orbit (lower limit of radius) an outer planet in a binary system can have and still remain stable is determined by Hill's stability criterion. For >0.15, the critical radius is determined by Laplace's stability criterion. It appears that the Graziani-Black stability criterion describes the critical orbit within a few percent for all values of .     

Spin rates of small moonlets embedded in planetary rings: I. Three-body calculations

We investigate the spin rates of moonlets embedded in planetary rings, subject to collisions with surrounding small particles, using three-body integrations including friction and spins. All successive impacts of the particle with the moonlet are followed, including a possible sliding phase after the initial inelastic rebounds. Two methods for treating impacts, (1) as instantaneous velocity changes and (2) using an impact force model, are applied after Salo (1995, Icarus 117, 287). Conducting a series of integrations with various initial summed spin velocity of the moonlet and the particle, we determine the equilibrium spin rate for which the averaged torque vanishes. This equilibrium spin rate corresponds to the final spin rate of the moonlet if the moonlet is much larger than the surrounding particles; it also corresponds to the mean spin rate for a ring composed of identical particles. We find that the equilibrium spin rate is enhanced by sliding orbits as compared with the spin rate determined by considering only the first impacts of the particles with the moonlet. If the random velocities of incident particles are small enough, the resulting equilibrium spin rate of the moonlet can be larger than the synchronous rotation rate, for r_p∼1, where r_p denotes the sum of radii of the colliding pair normalized by their mutual Hill radius. In this special case aggregates without internal strength may become rotationally unstable. However, the equilibrium spin rate decreases with increasing random velocity, and aggregates are always rotationally stable in the more likely case where the relative velocities are comparable to the mutual escape velocity. We also compare our results with the mean spin rates found in previous N-body simulations, and find a good agreement for optically thin rings; however the spin rates for optically thick rings are significantly larger than those predicted by our three-body calculations.     

Observations with the Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) during Cassini's flyby of Jupiter

The Cassini Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) is an imaging spectrometer covering the wavelength range 0.3-5.2 μm in 352 spectral channels, with a nominal instantaneous field of view of 0.5 mrad. The Cassini flyby of Jupiter represented a unique opportunity to accomplish two important goals: scientific observations of the jovian system and functional tests of the VIMS instrument under conditions similar to those expected to obtain during Cassini's 4-year tour of the saturnian system. Results acquired over a complete range of visual to near-infrared wavelengths from 0.3 to 5.2 μm are presented. First detections include methane fluorescence on Jupiter, a surprisingly high opposition surge on Europa, the first visual-near-IR spectra of Himalia and Jupiter's optically-thin ring system, and the first near-infrared observations of the rings over an extensive range of phase angles (0-120°). Similarities in the center-to-limb profiles of H⁺₃ and CH₄ emissions indicate that the H⁺₃ ionospheric density is solar-controlled outside of the auroral regions. The existence of jovian NH₃ absorption at 0.93 μm is confirmed. Himalia has a slightly reddish spectrum, an apparent absorption near 3 μm, and a geometric albedo of 0.06±0.01 at 2.2 μm (assuming an 85-km radius). If the 3-μm feature in Himalia's spectrum is eventually confirmed, it would be suggestive of the presence of water in some form, either free, bound, or incorporated in layer-lattice silicates. Finally, a mean ring-particle radius of 10 μm is found to be consistent with Mie-scattering models fit to VIMS near-infrared observations acquired over 0-120° phase angle.     

First observations of the Na exosphere of Mercury with the high-resolution spectrograph of the 3.5M Telescopio Nazionale Galileo

Analysis of three spectra of the exosphere of Mercury in the Na-D lines are presented. Spectra were secured with the high-resolution spectrograph (SARG) of the 3.5 M Telescopio Nazionale Galileo (TNG, located on the Roque de los Muchachos, Canaries) on the evenings of August 23 and 24, 2002. Spectra have resolution ; the slit length was 26.7”. The Na column abundances range from 4.3 to with the highest abundances being close to the illuminated limb. Our observations at true anomaly angles (TAA) from 171°to 174°show the traces of the emission lines to be strongly peaked at the illuminated limb, supportive of recent modeling that shows thermal desorption to be a strong factor in determining the distribution of Na about the planet.     

Using large radio telescopes at decametre wavelengths

With the aim of evaluating the actual possibilities of doing, from the ground, sensitive radio astronomy at decametre wavelengths (particularly below ), an extensive program of radio observations was carried out, in 1999–2002, by using digital spectral and waveform analysers (DSP) of new generation, connected to several of the largest, decametre radio telescopes in the world (i.e., the UTR-2 and URANs arrays in Ukraine, and the Nançay Decametre Array in France).

We report and briefly discuss some new findings, dealing with decametre radiation from Jupiter and the Solar Corona: namely the discovery of new kinds of hyper fine structures in spectrograms of the active Sun, and a new characterisation of Jupiter's “millisecond” radiation, whose waveform samples, with time resolution down to 40 ns, and correlated measurements, by using far distant antennas (3000 km), have been obtained. In addition, scattering effects, caused by the terrestrial ionosphere and the interplanetary medium, could be disentangled through high time resolution and wide-band analyses of solar, planetary and strong galactic radio sources. Consequences for decametre wavelength imaging at high spatial resolution (VLBI) are outlined. Furthermore, in spite of the very unfavourable electromagnetic environment in this frequency range, a substantial increase in the quality of the observations was shown to be provided by using new generation spectrometers, based on sophisticated digital techniques. Indeed, the available, high dynamic range of such devices greatly decreases the effects of artificial and natural radio interference. We give several examples of successful signal detection in the case of much weaker radio sources than Solar System ones, down to the intensity level.

In summary, we conclude that searching for sensitivity improvement at the decametre wavelength is scientifically quite justified, and is now technically feasible, in particular by building giant, phased antenna arrays of much larger collecting area (as in the LOFAR project). In this task, one must be careful of some specifics of this wavelength range—somewhat unusual in “classical” radio astronomy—i.e., very high level and density of radio interference (telecommunications) and the variable terrestrial ionosphere.