区域入境旅游业竞争力比较研究

为了分析和提高区域入境旅游业的市场竞争力 ,该文建立区域入境旅游业市场竞争态及其转移模型。运用此模型定量分析和比较了河北、新疆两地区入境旅游业的现实竞争状态以及它们各自在 1991— 2 0 0 0年的竞争态转移规律 ,为区域入境旅游业的发展规划提供参考。     

Environmental predictions for the Beagle 2 lander, based on GCM climate simulations

The Mars climate database (MCD) is a database of statistics based on output from physically consistent numerical model simulations which describe the climate and surface environment of Mars. It is used here to predict the meteorological environment of the Beagle 2 lander site. The database was constructed directly on the basis of output from multiannual integrations of two general circulation models, developed jointly at Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique du Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, France, and the University of Oxford, UK. In an atmosphere with dust opacities similar to that observed by Mars Global Surveyor, the predicted surface temperature at the time of landing (L_s=322°, 13:00 local time), is , and varying between ∼186 and over the Martian day. The predicted air temperature at above the surface, the height of the fully extended Beagle 2 robot arm, is at the time of landing. The expected mean wind near the surface on landing is north-westerly in direction, becoming more southerly over the mission. An increase in mean surface pressure is expected during the mission. Heavy global dust storm predictions are discussed; conditions which may only occur in the extreme as the expected time of landing is around the end of the main dust storm period. Past observations show approximately a one in five chance of a large-scale dust storm in a whole Mars year over the landing region, Isidis Planitia. This statistic results from observations of global, encircling, regional and local dust storms but does not include any small-scale dust “events” such as dust devils.     

Models of Jupiter's growth incorporating thermal and hydrodynamic constraints

We model the growth of Jupiter via core nucleated accretion, applying constraints from hydrodynamical processes that result from the disk-planet interaction. We compute the planet's internal structure using a well tested planetary formation code that is based upon a Henyey-type stellar evolution code. The planet's interactions with the protoplanetary disk are calculated using 3-D hydrodynamic simulations. Previous models of Jupiter's growth have taken the radius of the planet to be approximately one Hill sphere radius, RH. However, 3-D hydrodynamic simulations show that only gas within ∼0.25RH remains bound to the planet, with the more distant gas eventually participating in the shear flow of the protoplanetary disk. Therefore in our new simulations, the planet's outer boundary is placed at the location where gas has the thermal energy to reach the portion of the flow not bound to the planet. We find that the smaller radius increases the time required for planetary growth by ∼5%. Thermal pressure limits the rate at which a planet less than a few dozen times as massive as Earth can accumulate gas from the protoplanetary disk, whereas hydrodynamics regulates the growth rate for more massive planets. Within a moderately viscous disk, the accretion rate peaks when the planet's mass is about equal to the mass of Saturn. In a less viscous disk hydrodynamical limits to accretion are smaller, and the accretion rate peaks at lower mass. Observations suggest that the typical lifetime of massive disks around young stellar objects is ∼3 Myr. To account for the dissipation of such disks, we perform some of our simulations of Jupiter's growth within a disk whose surface gas density decreases on this timescale. In all of the cases that we simulate, the planet's effective radiating temperature rises to well above 1000 K soon after hydrodynamic limits begin to control the rate of gas accretion and the planet's distended envelope begins to contract. According to our simulations, proto-Jupiter's distended and thermally-supported envelope was too small to capture the planet's current retinue of irregular satellites as advocated by Pollack et al. [Pollack, J.B., Burns, J.A., Tauber, M.E., 1979. Icarus 37, 587-611].     

Sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensification to boundary layer and convective processes

This study examines the role of the parameterization of convection, planetary boundary layer (PBL) and explicit moisture processes on tropical cyclone intensification. A high-resolution mesoscale model, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) model MM5, with two interactive nested domains at resolutions 90 km and 30 km was used to simulate the Orissa Super cyclone, the most intense Indian cyclone of the past century. The initial fields and time-varying boundary variables and sea surface temperatures were taken from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) (FNL) one-degree data set. Three categories of sensitivity experiments were conducted to examine the various schemes of PBL, convection and explicit moisture processes. The results show that the PBL processes play crucial roles in determining the intensity of the cyclone and that the scheme of Mellor-Yamada (MY) produces the strongest cyclone. The combination of the parameterization schemes of MY for planetary boundary layer, Kain-Fritsch2 for convection and Mixed-Phase for explicit moisture produced the best simulation in terms of intensity and track. The simulated cyclone produced a minimum sea level pressure of 930 hPa and a maximum wind of 65 m s⁻¹ as well as all of the characteristics of a mature tropical cyclone with an eye and eye-wall along with a warm core structure. The model-simulated precipitation intensity and distribution were in good agreement with the observations. The ensemble mean of all 12 experiments produced reasonable intensity and the best track.     

Identification of cryovolcanism on Titan using fuzzy cognitive maps

Future planetary exploration of Titan will require higher degrees of on-board automation, including autonomous determination of sites where the probability of significant scientific findings is the highest. In this paper, a novel Artificial Intelligence (AI) method for the identification and interpretation of sites that yield the highest potential of cryovolcanic activity is presented. We introduce the theory of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) as a tool for the analysis of remotely collected data in planetary exploration. A cognitive model embedded in a fuzzy logic framework is constructed via the synergistic interaction of planetary scientists and AI experts. As an application example, we show how FCM can be employed to solve the challenging problem of recognizing cryovolcanism from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Cassini data. The fuzzy cognitive map is constructed using what is currently known about cryovolcanism on Titan and relies on geological mapping performed by planetary scientists to interpret different locales as cryovolcanic in nature. The system is not conceived to replace the human scientific interpretation, but to enhance the scientists’ ability to deal with large amounts of data, and it is a first step in designing AI systems that will be able, in the future, to autonomously make decisions in situations where human analysis and interpretation is not readily available or could not be sufficiently timely. The proposed FCM is tested on Cassini radar data to show the effectiveness of the system in reaching conclusions put forward by human experts and published in the literature. Four tests are performed using the Ta SAR image (October 2004 fly-by). Two regions (i.e. Ganesa Macula and the lobate high backscattering region East of Ganesa) are interpreted by the designed FCM as exhibiting cryovolcanism in agreement with the initial interpretation of the regions by Stofan et al. (2006). Importantly, the proposed FCM is shown to be flexible and adaptive as new data and knowledge are acquired during the course of exploration. Subsequently, the FCM has been modified to include topographic information derived from SAR stereo data. With this additional information, the map concludes that Ganesa Macula is not a cryovolcanic region. In conclusion, the FCM methodology is shown to be a critical and powerful component of future autonomous robotic spacecraft (e.g., orbiter(s), balloon(s), surface/lake lander(s), rover(s)) that will be deployed for the exploration of Titan.     

On the rotation of a moonlet embedded in planetary rings

We examine the rotation of a small moonlet embedded in planetary rings caused by impacts of ring particles, using analytic calculation and numerical orbital integration for the three-body problem. Taking into account the Rayleigh distribution of particles' orbital eccentricities and inclinations, we evaluate both systematic and random components of rotation, where the former arises from an average of a large number of small impacts and the latter is contribution from large impacts. Calculations for parameter values corresponding to inner parts of Saturn's rings show that a moonlet would spin slowly in the prograde direction if most impactors are small particles whose velocity dispersion is comparable to or smaller than the moonlet's escape velocity. However, we also find that the effect of the random component can be significant, if the velocity dispersion of particles is larger and/or impacts of large particles comparable to the moonlet's size are common: in this case, both prograde and retrograde rotations can be expected. In the case of a small moonlet embedded in planetary rings of equal-sized particles, we find that the systematic component dominates the moonlet rotation when m/M?0.1 (m and M are the mass of a particle and a moonlet, respectively), while the random component is dominant when m/M?0.3. We derive the condition for the random component to dominate moonlet rotation on the basis of our results of three-body orbital integration, and confirm agreement with N-body simulation.     

Accurate Mars Express orbits to improve the determination of the mass and ephemeris of the Martian moons

The determination of the ephemeris of the Martian moons has benefited from observations of their plane-of-sky positions derived from images taken by cameras onboard spacecraft orbiting Mars. Images obtained by the Super Resolution Camera (SRC) onboard Mars Express (MEX) have been used to derive moon positions relative to Mars on the basis of a fit of a complete dynamical model of their motion around Mars. Since, these positions are computed from the relative position of the spacecraft when the images are taken, those positions need to be known as accurately as possible. An accurate MEX orbit is obtained by fitting two years of tracking data of the Mars Express Radio Science (MaRS) experiment onboard MEX. The average accuracy of the orbits has been estimated to be around 20–25 m. From these orbits, we have re-derived the positions of Phobos and Deimos at the epoch of the SRC observations and compared them with the positions derived by using the MEX orbits provided by the ESOC navigation team. After fit of the orbital model of Phobos and Deimos, the gain in precision in the Phobos position is roughly 30 m, corresponding to the estimated gain of accuracy of the MEX orbits. A new solution of the GM of the Martian moons has also been obtained from the accurate MEX orbits, which is consistent with previous solutions and, for Phobos, is more precise than the solution from the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Odyssey (ODY) tracking data. It will be further improved with data from MEX-Phobos closer encounters (at a distance less than 300 km). This study also demonstrates the advantage of combining observations of the moon positions from a spacecraft and from the Earth to assess the real accuracy of the spacecraft orbit. In turn, the natural satellite ephemerides can be improved and participate to a better knowledge of the origin and evolution of the Martian moons.     

On the planetary acceleration and the rotation of the Earth

We have developed a cosmological model for the Earth rotation and planetary acceleration that gives a good account (data) of the Earth astronomical parameters. These data can be compared with the ones obtained using space-base telescopes. The expansion of the universe has shown to have an impact on the rotation of planets, and in particular, the Earth. The expansion of the universe causes an acceleration that is exhibited by all planets.     

Impacts onto H2O ice: Scaling laws for melting, vaporization, excavation, and final crater size

Shock-induced melting and vaporization of H₂O ice during planetary impact events are widespread phenomena. Here, we investigate the mass of shock-produced liquid water remaining within impact craters for the wide range of impact conditions and target properties encountered in the Solar System. Using the CTH shock physics code and the new 5-phase model equation of state for H₂O, we calculate the shock pressure field generated by an impact and fit scaling laws for melting and vaporization as a function of projectile mass, impact velocity, impact angle, initial temperature, and porosity. Melt production nearly scales with impact energy, and natural variations in impact parameters result in only a factor of two change in the predicted mass of melt. A fit to the π-scaling law for the transient cavity and transient-to-final crater diameter scaling are determined from recent simulations of the entire cratering process in ice. Combining melt production with π-scaling and the modified Maxwell Z-model for excavation, less than half of the melt is ejected during formation of the transient crater. For impact energies less than about 2 × 10²⁰ J and impact velocities less than about 5 km s⁻¹, the remaining melt lines the final crater floor. However, for larger impact energies and higher impact velocities, the phenomenon of discontinuous excavation in H₂O ice concentrates the impact melt into a small plug in the center of the crater floor.