精密引潮位展开及某些诠释

作者再次改进了引潮位展开,潮波振幅给到小数后第六位,共3070个潮波.文中论述了引潮位展开的精度,同时给出为了保证潮汐计算的高精度而所需引入的各项改正及其说明.     

中国大陆8级巨震生成背景研究

中国大陆８级巨震群体活动的盛衰起伏，紧随全球整体活动的变化而变，并明显地受到太阳活动长期变化的调制。就个体巨震孕育而言，其供能机制可造成周围数千公里构造应力场持续多年的剧烈增强。因此，对于震级为８级的巨大地震的预测问题，必须在极为广阔的研究视野中探讨。     

Image resolution and evaluation of genetic hypotheses for planetary landscapes

The spatial resolution of image data tends to constrain the horizontal length scale of genetic hypotheses that are addressable by those data. No ‘simple’ formula exists when image resolution is sufficient to test a given geomorphic process, which is dependent on what characteristics are diagnostic of the particular process. Genetic hypotheses should be formulated along the lines of the “multiple working hypotheses” concept as described in a classic paper by Chamberlin [J. Geol. 5 (1897) 837]. An essential element of a viable working hypothesis is a clear indication of the characteristics predicted by, or a consequence of, the hypothesis. An untestable hypothesis is not an effective working hypothesis. The history of the study of lunar sinuous rilles is outlined as an illustration of the influence of image resolution and the formulation of genetic hypotheses on the subsequent advancement of understanding of the problem. Sinuous rilles on Venus and Mars, and controversial sinuous ridges on Mars are also reviewed. In the lunar case, the three-order-of-magnitude improvement in spatial resolution provided by Lunar Orbiter photographs over Earth-based telescopic photographs did not result in definitive examination and elimination of published hypotheses for the formation of sinuous rilles. Topographic data obtained from cartographically controlled Apollo orbital photographs, along with important observations and samples obtained by the astronauts on the lunar surface, did test and exclude several hypotheses. The formulation of a genetic hypothesis, including testable consequences of that hypothesis, is a greater determinant of its ultimate utility to the scientific community than is the image resolution available at any given time.     

The geomorphology of planetary calderas

Satellite-derived observations of the geomorphology of calderas on Earth, Mars and Venus can be used to learn more about shield volcanoes. Examples of terrestrial basaltic volcanoes from the Galapagos Islands, Hawaii, and the Comoro Islands show how these volcanoes contrast with examples found on Mars and Venus. Caldera structure, degree of infilling, and the location of vents on the flanks are used to interpret each volcano's recent history. The geometry of the caldera floor can be used to infer some of the characteristics of the magma storage system, and the orientation of the deep magma conduits. The formation of benches within the caldera and the effects of the caldera on the distribution of flank eruptions are considered, and it is evident that most calderas on the planets are/were dynamic features. Presently, deep calderas, with evidence of overflowing lavas and ponded lavas high in the caldera wall, show that these calderas were once shallow. Similarly, shallow calderas filled with ponded lavas are evidence that they were once deeper. It is probably a mistake, therefore, to place great significance on caldera depth with regard to the position, shape, or size of subsurface plumbing.     

Colors and collision rates within the Kuiper belt: problems with the collisional resurfacing scenario

We present a numerical check of the collisional resurfacing (CR) hypothesis proposed to explain the observed color diversity within the Kuiper Belt (where surface reddening due to space weathering is counteracted by regular resurfacing of neutral material after mutual collisions). Deterministic simulations are performed in order to estimate the relative spatial distribution of kinetic energy received by collisions, , for a population of target Kuiper Belt objects (KBOs) embedded in a swarm of impactors distributed within the belt. Four different impactor disks have been considered, depending on the excitation and the external limit of the belt and the density of the scattered KBOs (SKBOs) population. The obtained results are compared to the relative color index distribution within the observed Kuiper Belt, in order to derive possible similarities between the high vs low objects spatial distribution in our simulations and the bluer vs redder KBOs distribution in the “real” Kuiper Belt. Such similarities are found for several important features, in particular the general correlations between highly impacted objects and high rms excitation and low perihelion q values that are in good agreement with equivalent correlations found for the bluest objects of the observed belt. Nevertheless, simulations disagree with observations on two crucial points. (1) The plutinos are significantly more collisionally affected than the rest of our test KBO population, whereas there is no observed tendency toward bluer plutinos. (2) There is always a much stronger correlation between and eccentricities than inclinations, whereas observations show just the opposite feature. The presence of numerous SKBO impactors could significantly damp these problematic features, but cannot erase them. Whether these contradictions invalidate the whole CR scenario or not remains yet uncertain, since the physical processes at play are still far from being fully understood and the sample of available observational data is still relatively limited. But it seems nevertheless that the scenario might not hold in its simple present form.     

Electrification of volcanic plumes

Volcanic lightning, perhaps the most spectacular consequence of the electrification of volcanic plumes, has been implicated in the origin of life on Earth, and may also exist in other planetary atmospheres. Recent years have seen volcanic lightning detection used as part of a portfolio of developing techniques to monitor volcanic eruptions. Remote sensing measurement techniques have been used to monitor volcanic lightning, but surface observations of the atmospheric electric Potential Gradient (PG) and the charge carried on volcanic ash also show that many volcanic plumes, whilst not sufficiently electrified to produce lightning, have detectable electrification exceeding that of their surrounding environment. Electrification has only been observed associated with ash-rich explosive plumes, but there is little evidence that the composition of the ash is critical to its occurrence. Different conceptual theories for charge generation and separation in volcanic plumes have been developed to explain the disparate observations obtained, but the ash fragmentation mechanism appears to be a key parameter. It is unclear which mechanisms or combinations of electrification mechanisms dominate in different circumstances. Electrostatic forces play an important role in modulating the dry fall-out of ash from a volcanic plume. Beyond the local electrification of plumes, the higher stratospheric particle concentrations following a large explosive eruption may affect the global atmospheric electrical circuit. It is possible that this might present another, if minor, way by which large volcanic eruptions affect global climate. The direct hazard of volcanic lightning to communities is generally low compared to other aspects of volcanic activity.     

Planetary waves in coupling the lower and upper atmosphere

The purpose of the paper is to answer the question if planetary waves (PW) are capable of propagating into the thermosphere. First the simplest vertical structure equation of the classic tidal theory accounting for a realistic vertical temperature profile is considered. Analysis and simulation show that the well-known normal atmospheric modes (NM), which are trapped in the lower and middle atmosphere, exhibit a wave-like vertical structure with a large vertical wavelength in the thermosphere. Moreover, the reflection of these modes from the vertical temperature gradient in the lower thermosphere causes appearance of the wave-energy upward flux in the middle atmosphere, and in a linearized formulation this flux is constant above the source region. To investigate a possibility of the NM forcing by stratospheric vacillations and to consider the propagation of different PW up to the heights of the upper thermosphere, a set of runs with a mechanistic Middle and Upper Atmosphere Model has been performed. The results of the simulation show that quasi-stationary and longer-period PW are not able to penetrate into the thermosphere. The shorter-period NM and ultra-fast Kelvin wave propagate up to the heights of the lower thermosphere. However, above about 150 km they are strongly suppressed by dissipative processes. The role of the secondary waves (nonmigrating tides) arising from nonlinear interaction between the primary migrating tides and quasi-stationary PW is discussed. We conclude that PW are not capable of propagating directly up to the heights of the ionospheric F2 region. It is suggested that other physical processes (for instance, the electrostatic field perturbations) have to be taken into account to explain the observed PW-like structures in ionospheric parameters.     

2007/2008和2008/2009冬季平流层强、弱极涡事件对应的行星波活动的对比分析

在对逐日气象资料进行纬向谐波分析的基础上, 对比和讨论了2007/2008年冬季强极涡期间和2008/2009冬季弱极涡期间平流层和对流层不同波数的行星波的变化特征, 特别关注强极涡或弱极涡发生之后, 500 hPa 沿60°N和30°N行星波1波和2波振幅和位相的差异, 以及相应的500 hPa位势场的差异, 进而讨论为什么不同的平流层极涡异常会对东亚有不同的影响, 特别讨论为什么同一种极涡异常, 对我国南北方近地面气温的影响会不同。结果表明:平流层极涡发生异常时, 平流层行星波活动有明显的异常。随着极涡异常的下传, 对流层行星波的振幅和位相也有明显的变化, 而且, 对于不同的纬度带, 其变化又有不同, 表现为:2008年1月强极涡发生之后, 500 hPa行星波1波和2波的扰动都向南伸, 而2009年1月的弱极涡(SSW)期间和之后, 1波和2波的扰动都偏北; 在对流层, 强极涡和弱极涡发生之后不但行星波1波和2波的振幅有所差异, 其位相也有明显的不同。特别是, 其位相的差异还随纬度而变化。就同一年(或者说对于同是强极涡或者同是弱极涡)而言, 无论是1波还是2波, 在60°N和30°N附近的扰动相比, 几乎反位相。这样就使得它们的500 hPa 位势场也有明显不同:在东半球, 主要表现为乌拉尔高压和东亚大槽的强度和位置不同。2008年1月强极涡发生之后, 乌拉尔高压和东亚大槽东移, 不利于冷空气向欧亚大陆北部(包括我国北方)的输送, 使这些地区的温度偏高;而2009年1月弱极涡之后, 东亚大槽西退, 利于冷空气向欧亚大陆北部输送, 导致这些地区较冷。对于同一种极涡异常(如2008强极涡或者2009弱极涡)由于南方和北方行星波扰动的位相不同, 对南方和北方冷暖空气的输送也就不一样。所以同一种极涡异常对(我国)南北地区的温度影响是不同的。     

协调大集合模拟下全球海表面温度对北极对流层早冬增暖的影响

本文使用六个不同的最新大气模式进行了协调数值集合实验,评估和量化了全球海表面温度(SST)对1982-2014年冬季早期北极变暖的影响.本研究设计了两组实验:在第一组(EXP1)中,将OISSTv2逐日变化的海冰密集度和SST数据作为下边界强迫场;在第二组(EXP2)中,将逐日变化的SST数据替换为逐日气候态.结果表明...