A Comparison of Model Predictions to Observations of Seasonal Variability and Circulation in the Eastern Mediterranean

Expendable Bathythermograph (XBT) observations collected along a transect across the Eastern Mediterranean are compared with the respective predictions of thermocline structure and variability produced by the POSEIDON system's ocean circulation model. The observations, obtained in the framework of the Mediterranean Forecasting System project, cover a complete annual cycle, at a repetition rate of 1-2 transects per month, thus providing an excellent data set for estimating the model's skill to forecast seasonal variability and mesoscale circulation in the upper 450 m of the ocean. The comparison has revealed that the model adequately predicts the seasonal cycle of the evolution of the thermocline but tends to generate less steep thermoclines than observed. Furthermore, the mesoscale circulation is not accurately predicted. For the latter, data assimilation is considered a necessary step towards the improvement of the system.     

Geospatial–temporal dependence among weekly precipitation extremes with applications to observations and climate model simulations in South America

A quantification of the spatio-temporal dependence among precipitation extremes is important for investigating the properties of intense storms as well as flood or flash-flood related hazards. Extreme value theory has been widely applied to the hydrologic sciences and hydraulic engineering. However, rigorous approaches to quantify dependence structures among extreme values in space and time have not been reported in the literature. Previous researchers have quantified the dependence among extreme values through the concept of (pairwise bivariate) tail dependence coefficients. For estimation of the tail dependence coefficients, we apply a recently developed method [Kuhn G. On dependence and extremes. PhD thesis (Advisor: C. Klüppelberg), Munich University of Technology, 2006] which utilized the multivariate tail dependence function of a subclass of elliptical copulas. This study extends the previous approach in the context of space and time by considering pairs of spatial grids in South America and quantifying the dependence among precipitation extremes based on the time series at each spatial grid. In addition, Kendall’s τ is used to estimate the pairwise copula correlation (for an elliptical copula) of precipitation between all grids in South America. The geospatial–temporal dependence measures are applied to precipitation observations from 1940 to 2005 as well as simulations from the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) for 1940–2099. New insights are obtained regarding the spatio-temporal dependence structures for precipitation over South America both with regard to correlation as well as tail dependence.     

CoRoT pictures transiting exoplanets

The detection and characterization of exoplanets have made huge progresses since the first discoveries in the late 1990s. In particular, the independent measurement of the mass and radius of planets, by combining the transit and radial-velocity techniques, allowed exploring their density and hence, their internal structure. With CoRoT (2007–2012), the pioneering CNES space-based mission in this investigation, about thirty new planets were characterized. CoRoT has enhanced the diversity of giant exoplanets and discovered the first telluric exoplanet. Following CoRoT, the NASA Kepler mission has extended our knowledge to small size planets, multiple systems and planets orbiting binaries. Exploring these new worlds will continue with the NASA/TESS (2017) and ESA/PLATO (2024) missions.     

Impact of dredging and dumping on the stability of ebb–flood channel systems

The impact of dredging and dumping on the morphologic stability of the tidal channels is investigated using morphologic field observations for the Westerschelde estuary dating back to 1955. The results are used to verify the theoretical concept presented by Wang and Winterwerp (2001). This concept states that a critical threshold for the amount of sediment dumping exists above which a channel system in equilibrium may become unstable and degenerate. The value of this threshold amounts to 5–10% of the total sediment transport capacity. Verification of this concept using field observations is not straightforward as the morphology of tidal channel often changes as a result of both natural processes and human interferences, i.e. the channels are not in equilibrium. In addition, the morphological timescales associated with channel degeneration are large (decades to centuries). Verification of the theory thus requires a careful analysis of abundant morphological data and numerical modeling of sediment transports. The results of such analyses presented in this study confirm the existence and the approximate magnitude of the critical level for dumping that follows from theory. Refined guidelines are derived to use the theoretical concept as an engineering tool for the evaluation and design of strategies for dumping in estuarine multi-channel systems. In the absence of the required morphological data the indicative theoretical level of 5–10% can be used to obtain a first estimate of the dump capacity in two-channel systems.     

新一代天气雷达与TWR01小天气雷达在一次强降水天气过程中的对比分析

通过对贵阳多普勒雷达和独山TWR01小天气雷达资料在一次强降水天气过程中四个时段的观测资料和四个时段的自记降水资料进行分析对比．得出新一代多普勒天气雷达由于贵州地形影响等原因．存在一定的探测盲区,而TWR01小雷达对小范围的对流云层观测更清楚、更接近当时天空的实际情况,是多普勒天气雷达很好的补充。     

A note on the top-down and bottom-up gradient functions over a forested site

The dimensionless bottom-up and top-down gradient functions in the convective boundary layer (CBL) are evaluated utilizing long-term well-calibrated carbon dioxide mixing ratio and flux measurements from multiple levels of a 447-m tall tower over a forested area in northern Wisconsin, USA. The estimated bottom-up and top-down functions are qualitatively consistent with those from large-eddy simulation (LES) results and theoretical expectations. Newly fitted gradient functions are proposed based on observations for this forested site. The integrated bottom-up function over the lowest 4% of the CBL depth estimated from the tower data is about five times larger than that from LES results for a ‘with-canopy’ case, and is smaller than that from LES results for a ‘no-canopy’ case by a factor of 0.7. We discuss the uncertainty in the evaluated gradient functions due to stability, wind direction, and uncertainty in the entrainment flux and show that while all of these have a significant impact on the gradient functions, none can explain the differences between the modelled and observed functions. The effects of canopy features and atmospheric stability may need to be considered in the gradient function relations.     

NASA's contribution to ozone research and monitoring

NASA has a long and significant history in observations and data analysis research for understanding the short- and long-term changes in ozone in the atmosphere. For nearly 40 years, NASA has overseen satellite observations of stratospheric ozone. These observations have been augmented by ground-based remote sensing, balloon borne, and aircraft observations of ozone and ozone-related species and by continuous observations of ozone depleting substances. Together, they form the evidential basis for understanding ozone changes over these past four decades. Also, NASA has continuously funded laboratory, modeling and data analysis activities to better understand the observations obtained by NASA and other programs. NASA has plans to continue these activities in the future, at a level consistent with available funding, other Earth Science observational priorities, and more importantly, with a goal of ensuring that data exist to understand changes in ozone in the future as the abundances of ozone depleting substances decrease and those of greenhouse gases increase.     

Intercomparison of Three- and one-Dimensional Model Simulations and Aircraft Observations of Stratocumulus

As part of the EUropean Cloud REsolving Modelling (EUCREM) model intercomparison project we compared the properties and development of stratocumulus as revealed by actual observations and as derived from two types of models, namely three-dimensional Large Eddy Simulations (LES) and one-dimensional Single Column Models (SCMs). The turbulence, microphysical and radiation properties were obtained from observations made in solid stratocumulus during the third flight of the first 'Lagrangian' experiment of the Atlantic Stratocumulus Transition Experiment (ASTEX). The goal of the intercomparison was to study the turbulence and microphysical properties of a stratocumulus layer with specified initial and boundary conditions.The LES models predict an entrainment velocity which is significantly larger than estimated from observations. Because the observed value contains a large experimental uncertainty no definitive conclusions can be drawn from this. The LES modelled buoyancy flux agrees rather well with the observed values, which indicates that the intensity of the convection is modelled correctly. From LES it was concluded that the inclusion of drizzle had a small influence (about 10%) on the buoyancy flux. All SCMs predict a solid stratocumulus layer with the correct liquid water profile. However, the buoyancy flux profile is poorly represented in these models. From the comparison with observations it is clear that there is considerable uncertainty in the parametrization of drizzle in both SCM and LES.     

Measurements and Observations in the XXI century (MOXXI): innovation and multi-disciplinarity to sense the hydrological cycle

To promote the advancement of novel observation techniques that may lead to new sources of information to help better understand the hydrological cycle, the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) established the Measurements and Observations in the XXI century (MOXXI) Working Group in July 2013. The group comprises a growing community of tech-enthusiastic hydrologists that design and develop their own sensing systems, adopt a multi-disciplinary perspective in tackling complex observations, often use low-cost equipment intended for other applications to build innovative sensors, or perform opportunistic measurements. This paper states the objectives of the group and reviews major advances carried out by MOXXI members toward the advancement of hydrological sciences. Challenges and opportunities are outlined to provide strategic guidance for advancement of measurement, and thus discovery.     

Be/X射线双星包层性质的研究

Be单星和Be/X射线双星作为一类特殊早型天体和特殊的大质量X射线双星 ,在各个波段都有与其它相同光谱型的B型天体显著不同的特征 ,因此长期以来引起中外天文学者的关注。首先在可见光波段发射线的存在 ,就是对仅产生吸收线的经典大气的挑战 ;其次Be星作为一类早型带有包层天体 ,研究Be星包层的性质 ,对研究原恒星包层性质和进一步了解早型星其它光谱型的性质是非常重要的 ;再者可以研究Be星的存在与星际磁场或湍流的星际介质是否有关 ;最后研究Be/X射线双星 ,对双星的演化模型也有很重要的作用。随着天文观测手段的不断完善和理论模型的发展 ,我们对Be星的现象有了更深的了解 ,并且产生了一些模型。研究内容包括Be星包层和星风的性质 ,以及包层形成机制 ,Be/X射线双星物质相互作用等。本文共分五章 ,第一章主要概要介绍Be和Be/X射线双星历史和目前已经取得的成就 ;第二章介绍Be单星多波段观测结果 ;第三章介绍Be/X射线双星的观测结果 ;第四章介绍目前主要的Be单星和Be/X射线双星模型 ;第五章给出Be/X射线双星XPer/ 4U0 352 30的分光观测结果 ,并结合单臂振动盘模型给出定性解释。