RELAXING ASSUMPTIONS OF PERFECT INFORMATION IN PARK VISITATION MODELS*

Variables related to urban park awareness are identified and methods for relaxing assumptions of perfect information in park use models are discussed. Park awareness is related to park characteristics (age and degree of development of the park), population characteristics (race, age, length of residence, recreation participation), and distance. Park attributes are stronger predictors of both park awareness and use than is distance. These findings parallel similar research on the cognitive aspects of shopping decisions.     

REVIEWS OF GEOGRAPHIC SOFTWARE

Reviews of geographic software in this article: DEMO-GRAPHICS: WORLD POPULATIONS AND PROJECTIONS. ESP GAUSS. CEMODEL S. Damus LIMDEP. William H. Greene MICROSTAT 4.1 OTIS PCIPS. (Personal Computer Image Processing System) . H.J. Meyers and R. Bernstein. REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES (RATS) SPSS/PC+ URBAN DATA MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE (UDMS)     

Nonlinear dynamic finite element simulation of Alibey earth dam

In this study, dynamic behavior and earthquake resistance of Alibey earth dam was investigated. The dam was modeled with four node plane-strain finite elements (FE) and displacement-pore pressure coupled FE analyses were performed. Nonlinear material models such as pressure dependent and independent multi yield materials were implemented during the analyses. Transient dynamic FE analyses were performed with Newmark method. The Newton-Raphson solution scheme was adopted to solve the equations. Liquefaction and/or cyclic mobility effects were considered during the analysis. For the FE analyses, OpenSees (Open System for Earthquake Engineering Simulation) framework was adopted.     

The double solid reactant method: II. An application to the shallow groundwaters of the Porto Plain,Vulcano Island (Italy)

This paper presents an example of application of the double solid reactant method (DSRM) of Accornero and Marini (Environmental Geology, 2007a), an effective way for modeling the fate of several dissolved trace elements during water–rock interaction. The EQ3/6 software package was used for simulating the irreversible water–rock mass transfer accompanying the generation of the groundwaters of the Porto Plain shallow aquifer, starting from a degassed diluted crateric steam condensate. Reaction path modeling was performed in reaction progress mode and under closed-system conditions. The simulations assumed: (1) bulk dissolution (i.e., without any constraint on the kinetics of dissolution/precipitation reactions) of a single solid phase, a leucite-latitic glass, and (2) precipitation of amorphous silica, barite, alunite, jarosite, anhydrite, kaolinite, a solid mixture of smectites, fluorite, a solid mixture of hydroxides, illite-K, a solid mixture of saponites, a solid mixture of trigonal carbonates and a solid mixture of orthorhombic carbonates. Analytical concentrations of major chemical elements and several trace elements (Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Sr and Ba) in groundwaters were satisfactorily reproduced. In addition to these simulations, similar runs for a rhyolite, a latite and a trachyte permitted to calculate major oxide contents for the authigenic paragenesis which are comparable, to a first approximation, with the corresponding data measured for local altered rocks belonging to the silicic, advanced argillic and intermediate argillic alteration facies. The important role played by both the solid mixture of trigonal carbonates as sequestrator of Mn, Zn, Cu and Ni and the solid mixture of orthorhombic carbonates as scavenger of Sr and Ba is emphasized.

Seismic Hazard Analysis — Quo vadis?

The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.

Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making.     

Assessing soil erosion in Mediterranean karst landscapes of Lebanon using remote sensing and GIS

Maps showing the potential for soil erosion at 1:100,000 scale are produced in a study area within Lebanon that can be used for evaluating erosion of Mediterranean karstic terrain with two different sets of impact factors built into an erosion model. The first set of factors is: soil erodibility, morphology, land cover/use and rainfall erosivity. The second is obtained by the first adding a fifth factor, rock infiltration. High infiltration can reflect high recharge, therefore decreasing the potential of surface runoff and hence the quantity of transported materials. Infiltration is derived as a function of lithology, lineament density, karstification and drainage density, all of which can be easily extracted from satellite imagery. The influence of these factors is assessed by a weight/rate approach sharing similarities between quantitative and qualitative methods and depending on pair-wise comparison matrix.The main outcome was the production of factorial maps and erosion susceptibility maps (scale 1:100,000). Spatial and attribute comparison of erosion maps indicates that the model that includes a measure of rock infiltration better represents erosion potential. Field investigation of rills and gullies shows 87.5% precision of the model with rock infiltration. This is 17.5% greater than the precision of the model without rock infiltration. These results indicate the necessity and importance of integrating information on infiltration of rock outcrops to assess soil erosion in Mediterranean karst landscapes.     

Exurbia from the bottom-up: Confronting empirical challenges to characterizing a complex system

We describe empirical results from a multi-disciplinary project that support modeling complex processes of land-use and land-cover change in exurban parts of Southeastern Michigan. Based on two different conceptual models, one describing the evolution of urban form as a consequence of residential preferences and the other describing land-cover changes in an exurban township as a consequence of residential preferences, local policies, and a diversity of development types, we describe a variety of empirical data collected to support the mechanisms that we encoded in computational agent-based models. We used multiple methods, including social surveys, remote sensing, and statistical analysis of spatial data, to collect data that could be used to validate the structure of our models, calibrate their specific parameters, and evaluate their output. The data were used to investigate this system in the context of several themes from complexity science, including have (a) macro-level patterns; (b) autonomous decision making entities (i.e., agents); (c) heterogeneity among those entities; (d) social and spatial interactions that operate across multiple scales and (e) nonlinear feedback mechanisms. The results point to the importance of collecting data on agents and their interactions when producing agent-based models, the general validity of our conceptual models, and some changes that we needed to make to these models following data analysis. The calibrated models have been and are being used to evaluate landscape dynamics and the effects of various policy interventions on urban land-cover patterns.     

金川镍铜矿床数学模型对深部矿化变化趋势的指示

按矿化特征将金川X矿区主矿体分为致密块状特富矿、海绵状富矿和浸染状贫矿.应用MicroMine软件对3类矿化体分别建立了数学模型,并应用距离平方反比法对模型单元块进行了镍、铜品位估值.通过分析和对比矿床数学模型900m至1300m不同水平剖面上的Ni、Cu品位及Ni/Cu比值的变化,得出在X矿区的中部西侧是一个Ni和Cu的矿化中心,并且向深部Cu的矿化强度高于Ni.