Gamma-Hadron Separation using Čerenkov Photon Density Fluctuations

In the atmospheric Čerenkov technique γ-rays are detected against the abundant background produced by hadronic showers. In order to improve the signal to noise ratio of theexperiment, it is necessary to reject a significant fraction of hadronic showers. Traditional background rejection methods based on image shape parameters have been extensively used for the data from imaging telescopes. However, non-imaging Čerenkov telescopes have to develop very different means of statistically identifying and removing cosmic ray events. Some of the parameters, which could be potentially important for non-imaging arrays, are the temporal and spectral differences, the lateral distributions and density fluctuations of Čerenkov photons generated by γ-ray and hadron primaries. Here we study the differences in fluctuations of Čerenkov photon density in the light pool at the observation level from showers initiated by photons and those initiated by protons or heavier nuclei. The database of simulated events for the PACT array has been used to evaluate the efficiency of the new technique. Various types of density fluctuations like the short range and medium range fluctuations as well as flatness parameter are studied. The estimated quality factors reflect the efficiencies with which the hadrons can be rejected from the data. Since some of these parameters are independent, the cuts may be applied in tandem and we demonstrate that the proton rejection efficiency of ∼90% can be achieved. Use of density fluctuations is particularly suited for wavefront sampling observations and it seems to be a good technique to improve the signal to noise ratio. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The identifiability of parameters in a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland

The identifiability of model parameters of a steady state water quality model of the Biebrza River and the resulting variation in model results was examined by applying the Monte Carlo method which combines calibration, identifiability analysis, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The water quality model simulates the steady state concentration profiles of chloride, phosphate, ammonium, and nitrate as a function of distance along a river. The water quality model with the best combination of parameter values simulates the observed concentrations very well. However, the range of possible modelled concentrations obtained for other more or less equally eligible combinations of parameter values is rather wide. This range in model outcomes reflects possible errors in the model parameters. Discrepancies between the range in model outcomes and the validation data set are only caused by errors in model structure, or (measurement) errors in boundary conditions or input variables. In this sense the validation procedure is a test of model capability, where the effects of calibration errors are filtered out. It is concluded that, despite some slight deviations between model outcome and observations, the model is successful in simulating the spatial pattern of nutrient concentrations in the Biebrza River.     

Ensemble simulation of land evapotranspiration in China based on a multi-forcing and multi-model approach

In order to reduce the uncertainty of offline land surface model(LSM) simulations of land evapotranspiration(ET), we used ensemble simulations based on three meteorological forcing datasets [Princeton, ITPCAS(Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences), Qian] and four LSMs(BATS, VIC, CLM3.0 and CLM3.5), to explore the trends and spatiotemporal characteristics of ET, as well as the spatiotemporal pattern of ET in response to climate factors over mainland China during 1982–2007. The results showed that various simulations of each member and their arithmetic mean(Ens Mean) could capture the spatial distribution and seasonal pattern of ET sufficiently well, where they exhibited more significant spatial and seasonal variation in the ET compared with observation-based ET estimates(Obs MTE). For the mean annual ET, we found that the BATS forced by Princeton forcing overestimated the annual mean ET compared with Obs MTE for most of the basins in China, whereas the VIC forced by Princeton forcing showed underestimations. By contrast, the Ens Mean was closer to Obs MTE, although the results were underestimated over Southeast China. Furthermore, both the Obs MTE and Ens Mean exhibited a significant increasing trend during 1982–98; whereas after 1998, when the last big EI Ni ?no event occurred, the Ens Mean tended to decrease significantly between 1999 and 2007, although the change was not significant for Obs MTE. Changes in air temperature and shortwave radiation played key roles in the long-term variation in ET over the humid area of China, but precipitation mainly controlled the long-term variation in ET in arid and semi-arid areas of China.     

数量性状位点的相对选择效率

从理论上采用蒙特卡罗(Monte Carlo)模拟的方法研究了不同遗传力条件下数量性状位点的直接选择(DSQ)和以表型为基础的选择(TBS)在10个不重叠世代中的选择反应以及DSQ相对于TBS的优势。结果表明,在10个世代中DSQ的选择进展在几乎总是大于TBS的选择进展,说明DSQ较TBS具有优越性;但DSQ的相对选择效率(RSE)会随着世代数的增加而呈现较迅速下降的趋势,单个性状情况下RSE则呈直线下降的趋势。随着选择代数的增加,DSQ将失去其优越性,TBS在遗传进展上将超过DSQ。     

Lava flow hazard at Nyiragongo volcano,D.R.C.

The 2002 eruption of Nyiragongo volcano constitutes the most outstanding case ever of lava flow in a big town. It also represents one of the very rare cases of direct casualties from lava flows, which had high velocities of up to tens of kilometer per hour. As in the 1977 eruption, which is the only other eccentric eruption of the volcano in more than 100 years, lava flows were emitted from several vents along a N–S system of fractures extending for more than 10 km, from which they propagated mostly towards Lake Kivu and Goma, a town of about 500,000 inhabitants. We assessed the lava flow hazard on the entire volcano and in the towns of Goma (D.R.C.) and Gisenyi (Rwanda) through numerical simulations of probable lava flow paths. Lava flow paths are computed based on the steepest descent principle, modified by stochastically perturbing the topography to take into account the capability of lava flows to override topographic obstacles, fill topographic depressions, and spread over the topography. Code calibration and the definition of the expected lava flow length and vent opening probability distributions were done based on the 1977 and 2002 eruptions. The final lava flow hazard map shows that the eastern sector of Goma devastated in 2002 represents the area of highest hazard on the flanks of the volcano. The second highest hazard sector in Goma is the area of propagation of the western lava flow in 2002. The town of Gisenyi is subject to moderate to high hazard due to its proximity to the alignment of fractures active in 1977 and 2002. In a companion paper (Chirico et al., Bull Volcanol, in this issue, 2008) we use numerical simulations to investigate the possibility of reducing lava flow hazard through the construction of protective barriers, and formulate a proposal for the future development of the town of Goma.     

Universal hydrofracturing algorithm for shear-thinning fluids: Particle velocity based simulation

A universal particle velocity based algorithm for simulating hydraulic fractures, previously proposed for Newtonian fluids, is extended to the class of shear-thinning fluids. The scheme is not limited to any particular elasticity operator or crack propagation regime. The computations are based on two dependent variables: the crack opening and the reduced particle velocity. The application of the latter facilitates utilization of the local condition of Stefan type (speed equation) to trace the fracture front. The condition is given in a general explicit form which relates the crack propagation speed (and the crack length) to the solution tip asymptotics. The utilization of a modular structure, and the adaptive character of its basic blocks, result in a flexible numerical scheme. The computational accuracy of the proposed algorithm is validated against a number of analytical benchmark solutions.     

Paleoenvironment reconstructions and climate simulations of the Early Triassic: Impact of the water and sediment supply on the preservation of fluvial systems

Paleoenvironmental reconstructions and climatic modelling allow us to investigate the influence of water and sediment supply on the preservation of fluvial systems within a given geodynamic context. To simulate climate, we need global-scale paleoenvironmental and paleotopographic reconstructions. However, the present study only covers the West-Tethys domain, where sedimentological and stratigraphic data allow us to check climate simulation results against geological data. We focus our modelling on the Olenekian, with the aim of characterizing the impact of climate on fluvial sedimentation in the West-Tethys domain. The climatic simulations show that paleoclimates differ between Western Europe and North Africa. A more humid climate is simulated over North Africa, whereas a rather arid climate prevails over Western Europe. In Western Europe, the sediments are preserved for the most part in endoreic basins and the presence of rivers in an arid environment suggests that these rivers are mainly fed by precipitation falling on the North Africa Variscan Mountains. In North Africa, sedimentation is exclusively preserved in exoreic basins (coastal plain sediments). Consequently, the lack of preserved fluvial systems in endoreic basins in North Africa either could be due to a shortage of accommodation space in this area, or is linked to the climatic conditions that controlled the water and sediment supply.     

提取山脊线和山谷线的一种新方法

在研究了现有的仅从山脊线和山谷线的几何特性或物理特性的单一方面设计的提取山脊线和山谷线的算法后,提出了一种基于地形表面流水分析与等高线几何分析相结合的提取山脊线和山谷线的方法。该方法把等高线几何分析的方法与地形表面流水模拟分析的方法有机地结合起来,能够克服各自所具有的弊端。实验结果表明,用本文方法所提取的山脊线和山谷线与实际地形相符合。     

A Probabilistic Model for Fatigue Crack Propagation Analysis

A simple probabilistic model for predicting crack growth behavior under random loading is pre-sented.In the model,the parameters c and m in the Paris-Erdogan Equation are taken as random variables,and their stochastic characteristic values are obtained through fatigue crack propagation tests on an offshorestructural steel under constant amplitude loading.Furthermore,by using the Monte Carlo simulation tech-nique,the fatigue crack propagation life to reach a given crack length is predicted.The tests are conducted toverify the applicability of the theoretical prediction of the fatigue crack propagation.