Stochastic response surface method for reliability analysis of rock slopes involving correlated non-normal variables

This paper proposes a stochastic response surface method for reliability analysis involving correlated non-normal random variables, in which the Nataf transformation is adopted to effectively transform the correlated non-normal variables into independent standard normal variables. Transformations of random variables that are often used in reliability analyses in terms of standard normal variables are summarized. The closed-form expressions for fourth to sixth order Hermite polynomial chaos expansions involving any number of random variables are formulated. The proposed method will substantially extend the application of stochastic response surface method for reliability problems. An example of reliability analysis of rock slope stability with plane failure is presented to demonstrate the validity and capability of the proposed stochastic response surface method. The results indicate that the proposed stochastic response surface method can evaluate the reliability of rock slope stability involving correlated non-normal variables accurately and efficiently. Its accuracy is shown to be higher than that for the first-order reliability method, and it is much more efficient than direct Monte-Carlo simulation. The results also show that the number of collocation points selected should ensure that the Hermite polynomial matrix has a full rank so that different order SRSMs can produce a robust estimation of probability of failure for a specified performance function. Generally, the accuracy of SRSM increases as the order of SRSM increases.     

Structure and dynamics of distinct fish assemblages in three reaches (upper,middle and lower) of an open tropical estuary in Brazil

We collected fishes and environmental variables in three zones (upper, middle and lower) of a small open tropical estuary during flood tide. The aim was to test for differences in fish assemblages along a gradient from freshwater to marine waters and to detect any seasonal variation in fishes and environmental variables across these zones. A total of 111 species (18 in the upper, 50 in the middle and 66 in the lower estuary) were recorded, forming three distinct fish assemblages, with the family Eleotridae dominating in the upper, Gerreidae in the middle, and Sciaenidae in the lower estuary. Only two species (Geophagus brasiliensis in the upper and the middle zones, and Eucinostomus argenteus in the middle and the lower zones) composed more than 1% of the total number of individuals in more than a single zone. Short‐term (tidal) changes in salinity in the middle estuary were associated with different assemblages in the three estuarine zones, even in winter, when the differences in salinity are lowest between the middle and the lower zones. Seasonal variation in salinity was irrelevant, except in a protected sidewater lagoon in the middle estuary. Low salinity seasonal change may be related to the lack of seasonal variation in the structure of fish assemblages in all estuarine zones.     

Spatio‐temporal dynamics of the surf‐zone faunal assemblages at a Southern Oregon sandy beach

Sandy beach/surf‐zone ecosystems are unique environments that, despite the harsh and highly variable hydrodynamic conditions, present a diverse and heterogeneous fauna. However, the dynamics of these ecosystems are currently poorly understood. In this study we tested the hypothesis that surf‐zone assemblages vary with temporal factors such as time of day, tide and tidal height. To test this hypothesis, the surf‐zone community of Bastendorff, a Southern Oregon sandy beach was sampled during the summer of 2006. Samples were collected to (i) describe the smaller, benthic and larger swimming assemblages, (ii) determine whether assemblage compositions, densities, species richness and diversity vary with time of day, tide and tidal height, (iii) explore potential reasons for the variation by correlating environmental factors to the assemblages, and (iv) identify particular species that most strongly exhibit these variations. A hyperbenthic sledge, a sediment corer and a beach seine were used to collect the smaller swimming, benthic and larger swimming fauna, respectively. Sampling occurred during day and night, spring and neap tide, and high, mid and low tide. A total of 76,743 individuals belonging to 105 species were collected. Ninety‐one invertebrate (72,904 individuals), 15 invertebrates (2234 individuals), and 19 invertebrate and vertebrate species (1605 individuals) were collected with the sledge, corer and seine, respectively. Nine species of fish were caught, 98% of which were juveniles. The smaller and larger swimming assemblages varied most strongly with the time of day, suggesting certain species will actively move to the shallow surf‐zone at night. The three assemblages also varied with the tide, potentially due to the larger waves and higher abundance of detached macrophytes observed during spring tides when compared to neap tides, which could push individuals into the surf zone. The benthic assemblage most strongly varied with tidal height and sand grain size, confirming the presence of different faunal zones within Oregon sandy beaches. Finally, several variables of the swimming assemblages varied with temperature and salinity, suggesting that downwelling favorable conditions may have transported species close to shore. Bastendorff presents a complex and diverse surf‐zone community that appears to be influenced by diel species movements, environmental variables such as wave height and abundance of detached macrophytes, and regional oceanographic conditions.     

Fish assemblages in a north Atlantic coastal ecosystem: Spatial patterns and environmental correlates

Analyses of six years of bottom trawl data collected from Northumberland Strait, southern Gulf of St. Lawrence revealed four major fish assemblages, two of which occurred in the same two geographic areas each year. One of the two persistent assemblages occurred in deeper water off northwestern Prince Edward Island and consisted mostly of demersal fishes. The other persistent assemblage contained a mixture of demersal and pelagic fishes and occurred primarily in shallow water of central Northumberland Strait. Analyses of abiotic (depth, bottom temperature, substratum type) and biotic (presence of American lobster Homarus americanus, northern lady crab Ovalipes ocellatus) factors revealed bottom temperature and catches of lady crab correlate best with the fish assemblage structure each year, but correlation values were low (ρ_w ≤ 0.48). Combinations of all abiotic and biotic variables only marginally improved the strength of the correlations in four of six years (2002, 2003, 2005, 2006). Changes observed in the Northumberland Strait ecosystem over the six years included an increase in the ratio of pelagic to demersal fishes, disappearance of one of the four assemblages, and increased spatial overlap between the two persistent assemblages, which coincided with an increase in bottom temperature. The increasing importance of pelagic fishes, relative to demersal fishes, suggests a shift in food web structure may be occurring in Northumberland Strait.     

A heuristic examination of cohesive sediment bed exchange in turbulent flows

Prediction of the concentration of suspended cohesive sediment in the marine environment is constrained by difficulties in interpreting experimental evidence on bed exchange, i.e. erosion and deposition of particles, which remains sparse in mechanistic details. In this paper, conditions under which bed exchange in turbulent flows collectively determines the concentration of suspended matter have been examined in the heuristic sense based on selective experimental data. It is argued that interpretation of such data can be significantly facilitated when multi-class representation of particle size, collisional interaction between suspended particles and probabilistic representations of the bed shear stress along with variables describing particle behavior (critical shear stress for deposition, bed floc shear strength) are taken into account. Aggregation—floc growth and breakup kinetics—brings about shifts in the suspended particle size distribution; bed exchange is accordingly modulated and this in turn determines concentration dynamics. Probabilistic representation of the governing variables broadens the suspended sediment size spectrum by increasing the possibilities of inter-particle interactions relative to the mean-value representation. Simple models of bed exchange, which essentially rely on single-size assumption and mean-value representation of variables, overlook the mechanistic basis underpinning particle dynamics.     

Food web structure of the epibenthic and infaunal invertebrates on the Catalan slope (NW Mediterranean): Evidence from ��C and ��N analysis

The food-web structure of the epibenthic and infaunal invertebrates on the continental slope of the Catalan Sea (Balearic basin, NW Mediterranean) was investigated using carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes on a total of 34 species, and HPLC pigment analyses for three key species. Samples were collected close to Barcelona (NE Iberian Peninsula), between 650 and 800 m depth and between February 2007 and February 2008. Mean ??¹³C values ranged from −21.0‰ (small Calocaris macandreae and Amphipholis squamata) to −14.5‰ (Sipunculus norvegicus). Values of ??¹⁵N ranged from 4.0‰ (A. squamata) to 12.1‰ (Molpadia musculus). The stable isotope ratios of benthic fauna displayed a continuum of values (e.g. ??¹⁵N range of 8‰), confirming a wide spectrum of feeding strategies (from active suspension feeders to predators) and complex food webs. According to the available information on diets of benthic fauna, the lowest values were found for surface deposit feeders (small C. macandrae and the two ophiuroids A. squamata and Amphiura chiajei) and active suspension feeders (Abra longicallus and Scalpellum scalpellum) feeding on different sizes of particulate organic matter (POM), among which small particles may exhibit lower ??¹⁵N. High annual mean ??¹⁵N values were found among sub-surface deposit feeders, exploiting refractory or frequently recycled organic matter that is enriched in ??¹⁵N. Carnivorous polychaetes (Nephtys spp., Oenonidae and Polynoidae) and large decapods (Geryon longipes and Paromola cuvieri) also displayed high ??¹⁵N values. ??¹³C ranges were particularly wide among surface deposit feeders (ranging from −21.0‰ to −16.4‰), suggesting exploitation of POM of both terrigenous and oceanic origins. Correlation between ??¹³C and ??¹⁵N was generally weak, indicating multiple carbon sources, likely due to the consumption of different kinds of sinking particles (e.g. marine snow, phytodetritus, etc.), sedimented and frequently recycled POM, together with macrophyte remains. The stronger ??¹³C-??¹⁵N correlations found in February and April suggest that during the period of water column homogeneization (winter-spring), the benthic community was sustained by phytodetritus inputs originating from the peak of surface primary production in February. Conversely, weaker ??¹³C-??¹⁵N correlations were observed during the period of water column stratification (beginning in June-July), suggesting that the benthic community in this period was sustained, with a delay of ca. 2/3 months, by multiple carbon sources including continental inputs from river discharge (with the maxima in April-May). Thus both advective and vertical fluxes seem to be food sources for benthos on the Catalonian slope. Pigments in the guts of key species were generally degraded, and only the active suspension feeder A. longicallus ingested fresh chlorophyll during periods of high primary production at the surface (February and April 2007).     

0808号台风"凤凰"登陆过程的三维变分同化试验

主要对0808号台风"凤凰"的登陆过程进行模拟试验.首先,利用GPS掩星资料反演的大气气压、温度和水汽资料以及云导风资料,对台风"凤凰"进行了三维变分同化及数值模拟试验.结果表明:同化不同资料,得到的台风初始场各不相同,对台风预报的影响也各不相同.同时同化GPS资料和云导风资料,对台风初始场的调整最大,对模拟台风登陆前...     

中国公众对"限塑令"态度的影响因素——以兰州市为例

基于问卷调查和个人访谈,运用路径方法,分析了影响中国公众对限塑令态度的社会心理和社会人口变量.结果表明,社会人口变量中,只有教育与公众对限塑令的态度呈正相关,且社会人口变量只能解释公众对限塑令态度方差的很小一部分.相较而言,社会心理变量能更好解释中国公众对限塑令态度的差异,集体主义价值观和新生态观与限塑令态度呈显著正相...     

Orbital solution and fundamental parameters of σ Scorpii

The first orbital solution for the spectroscopic pair in the multiple star system σ Scorpii, determined from measurements with the Sydney University Stellar Interferometer, is presented. The primary component is of β Cephei variable type and has been one of the most intensively studied examples of its class. The orbital solution, when combined with radial velocity results found in the literature, yields a distance of  174⁺²³₋₁₈ pc  , which is consistent with, but more accurate than the Hipparcos value. For the primary component we determine  18.4 ± 5.4 M_⊙, −4.12 ± 0.34 mag  and  12.7 ± 1.8 R_⊙  for the mass, absolute visual magnitude and radius, respectively. A B1 dwarf spectral type and luminosity class for the secondary is proposed from the mass determination of  11.9 ± 3.1 M_⊙  and the estimated system age of 10 Myr.