BCC/RCG-WG天气发生器非降水变量模拟参数气候变化特征

利用中国699 个气象站点1951-2007 年的逐日最高气温、最低气温和日照时数资料,分1951-1978 年和1979-2007 年两个时段分析了气候变化对BCC/RCG-WG天气发生器中我国各地逐日非降水变量模拟参数的影响.结果表明,最高气温、最低气温和日照时数三个变量平均值傅立叶级数展开式的年平均值和基波振幅较标准差傅立叶级数展开式的年平均值和基波振幅的变化幅度明显偏大,而平均值傅立叶级数展开式的基波位相变化幅度较标准差的基波位相变化幅度明显偏小;三个变量当天以及后延一天之间的相关系数的绝对变化较小.说明在气候变化背景下,最高气温等三个非降水变量的年平均值和年内变幅有明显的变化,而三个变量年际间的变异、峰值出现时间以及各变量之间的相关性变化较小.     

非饱和土的应力状态变量研究

以热力学和连续介质力学的应力理论为基础,从非饱和土的土骨架平衡方程出发,导出了一系列应力状态变量,目前文献中所使用的应力状态变量都在其中。研究发现：非饱和土的应力状态变量有多种组合形式（5组以上）,不是惟一的;大多数应力状态变量与土的孔隙率、饱和度等物性指标孪生相伴;所有应力状态变量都具有应力的量纲,单纯孔隙率或饱和度及其组合都不构成应力状态变量;简化的Bishop有效应力公式和Fredlund倡导的两个应力状态变量都是简化了的应力状态变量,前者忽略了孔隙率的影响,而后者忽略了与孔隙率及饱和度的关联性。在选择应力状态变量时应考虑理论合理、应用方便、逻辑关系正确的原则,还应做一定的验证工作。     

一种基于Partial EIV模型的多项式拟合解法

针对多项式拟合模型系数矩阵中部分元素是某一自变量的函数的特点,根据Partial EIV模型的解算思想,将系数矩阵中自变量的函数作为随机元素提取,顾及泰勒展开的二阶项,由协方差传播律计算自变量函数的协因数阵进行平差解算。实验结果表明,系数矩阵的元素不再是单独的自变量时,使用该算法可以得到与已有非线性总体最小二乘方法相近的参数结果,从构造随机向量权阵的角度提供了一种新的解算方法。     

连续变量的自适应局部空间同位模式挖掘算法

目前,局部空间同位模式挖掘方法存在需要预设定邻域范围、挖掘的结果无统计显著性意义而难以对结论进行科学地判定等问题,如当前常用的\begin{array}{c}K\end{array}近邻方法难以确定合适的搜索圆半径,而固定距离法由于空间数据集的多尺度特性,距离阈值的设定对结果的影响较大。因此,针对连续变量的空间采样点数据集,本文提出了一种自适应局部空间同位模式挖掘算法。首先,定义了连续变量的空间同位模式兴趣度函数、模式指示器函数及Voronoi邻域,并通过构建Voronoi邻域矩阵避免了预设定邻域阈值的问题,最后采用\begin{array}{c}{G_i}^{*}\end{array}统计量进行局部空间同位模式及其区域的发现,使挖掘的结果具有统计显著性意义,进而帮助专家对挖掘结果做出更科学的判定。通过使用真实的连接了烟草适应性评价结果的耕地地力样点调查数据和水污染数据,对开发的算法进行测试。实验结果表明,算法无需预设邻域范围,可查找同区域内的不同空间同位模式。实验所发现的局部空间同位模式发现了实验数据研究区域存在的特有现象,对耕地地力调查工作具有实际的指导作用。     

The Geographical Distribution of Mental Disorder in Denmark 1971–1990: A Study of First Admission Rates

Geografisk Tidsskrift, Danish Journal of Geography 97: 132–142, 1997.

In the period 1971–90 the first admission rate to Danish psychiatric hospitals and wards decreased by approximately 45%. This might reflect the similar decrease in number of available psychiatric beds. Generally, the decrease of first admission rates was larger in the metropolitan area than in the rest of the country. Consequently, the disparity in admission rates between town and country was reduced. Number of available beds has gained increasing importance as a predictor of variations between counties and municipalities whereas the importance of distance to hospital and degree of urbanization has declined. As regards socio-demographic variables special importance should be attached to variables for social aid and the employment rate in the social and health sector. However, it is generally difficult to determine whether regional variations are due to differences in treatment facilities or morbidity differences. From a disaggregate analysis it will appear that the diagnoses schizophrenia and alcoholism are especially related to low status areas whereas a connection with social status regarding neuroses and manic-depressive psychoses is less obvious.     

An alternative approach to transverse and profile terrain curvature

Terrain curvature is one of the most important parameters of land surface topography. Well-established methods used in its measurement compute an index of plan or profile curvature for every single cell of a digital elevation model (DEM). The interpretation of these outputs may be delicate, especially when selected locations have to be analyzed. Furthermore, they involve a high level of simplification, contrasting with the complex and multiscalar nature of the surface curvature itself. In this paper, we present a new method to assess vertical transverse and profile curvature combining real-scale visualization and the possibility to measure these two terrain derivatives over a large range of scales. To this purpose, we implemented a GIS tool that extracts longitudinal and transverse elevation profiles from a high-resolution DEM. The performance of our approach was compared with some of the most commonly used methods (ArcMap, Redlands, CA, USA; ArcSIE, Landserf) by analyzing the terrain curvature around charcoal production sites in southern Switzerland. The different methods produced comparable results. While conventional methods quickly summarize terrain curvature in the form of a matrix of values, they involve a loss of information. The advantage of the new method lies in the possibility to measure and visualize the shape and size of the curvature, and to obtain a realistic representation of the average curvature for different subsets of spatial points. Moreover, the new method makes it possible to control the conditions in which the index of curvature is calculated.     

A) A. I. H. S. / A) A. I. H. S.

Abstract

A new method is presented to generate stationary multi-site hydrological time series. The proposed method can handle flexible time-step length, and it can be applied to both continuous and intermittent input series. The algorithm is a departure from standard decomposition models and the Box-Jenkins approach. It relies instead on the recent advances in statistical science that deal with generation of correlated random variables with arbitrary statistical distribution functions. The proposed method has been tested on 11 historic weekly input series, of which the first seven contain flow data and the last four have precipitation data. The article contains an extensive review of the results.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Ilich, N., 2014. An effective three-step algorithm for multi-site generation of stochastic weekly hydrological time series. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 85–98.     

Estimation and Long-term Trend Analysis of Surface Solar Radiation in Antarctica: A Case Study of Zhongshan Station

Long-term,ground-based daily global solar radiation (DGSR) at Zhongshan Station in Antarctica can quantitatively reveal the basic characteristics of Earth’s surface radiation balance and validate satellite data for the Antarctic region.The fixed station was established in 1989,and conventional radiation observations started much later in 2008.In this study,a random forest (RF) model for estimating DGSR is developed using ground meteorological observation data,and a highprecision,long-term DGSR dataset is constructed.Then,the trend of DGSR from 1990 to 2019 at Zhongshan Station,Antarctica is analyzed.The RF model,which performs better than other models,shows a desirable performance of DGSR hindcast estimation with an R~2 of 0.984,root-mean-square error of 1.377 MJ m~(-2),and mean absolute error of 0.828 MJ m~(-2).The trend of DGSR annual anomalies increases during 1990–2004 and then begins to decrease after 2004.Note that the maximum value of annual anomalies occurs during approximately 2004/05 and is mainly related to the days with precipitation (especially those related to good weather during the polar day period) at this station.In addition to clouds and water vapor,bad weather conditions (such as snowfall,which can result in low visibility and then decreased sunshine duration and solar radiation) are the other major factors affecting solar radiation at this station.The high-precision,longterm estimated DGSR dataset enables further study and understanding of the role of Antarctica in global climate change and the interactions between snow,ice,and atmosphere.     

Solar Photocatalytic Decolorization and Detoxification of Industrial Batik Dye Wastewater Using P(3HB)‐TiO2 Nanocomposite Films

Solar photocatalytic decolorization and detoxification of batik dye wastewater using titanium dioxide (TiO₂) immobilized on poly‐3‐hydroxybutyrate (P(3HB)) film was studied. The effects of initial dye concentration, catalyst concentration, P(3HB) film thickness, and fabrication methods of the nanocomposite films were evaluated against methylene blue, a standard organic dye. It was observed that 0.4 g of P(3HB)‐40 wt% TiO₂ removed 96% of the color under solar irradiation. P(3HB) and TiO₂, mixed concurrently in chloroform followed by stirring for 24 h showed a more even distribution of the photocatalyst on the polymer surface and yielded almost 100% color removal. The photocatalytic films were able to completely decolorize real industrial batik dye wastewater in 3 h and induced a chemical oxygen demand (COD) reduction of 80%. Reusability of the 0.4 g P(3HB)‐40 wt% TiO₂ film in decolorizing the batik dye wastewater was also possible as it gave a high consistent value of decolorization percentage (>80%) even after the sixth repeated usage. Recovery step of the photocatalysts was also not required in this simple treatment system. The decolorized batik dye wastewater had less/no toxic effects on mosquito larvae, Aedes aegypti, and microalgae, Scenedesmus quadricauda indicating simultaneous detoxification process along with the decolorization process.