Global energy scenarios and their implications for future shipped trade

About half of the world's oil supply, a fifth of coal supply and a tenth of natural gas supply are traded by ship. Accordingly, any significant shift in the size and shape of the global energy system has important consequences for shipping, which underpins international trade and supports economic development. The Paris Agreement requires an acceleration of the drive towards energy system decarbonisation. Yet, the International Maritime Organisation's understanding of the future is more in line with the high-carbon scenarios analysed here. This paper is a first comprehensive and global assessment of implications of fundamental changes to global and regional energy systems for international shipping, under-researched in energy scenarios consistent with deep decarbonisation. It concludes that, despite uncertainties (particularly with negative emission technologies), fossil fuel trade by the middle of the century will almost certainly be significantly lower under low-carbon than under high-carbon scenarios, and (for oil and coal) lower than in 2012. As to bioenergy and captured carbon dioxide, while their supply is expected to increase during a low-carbon transition, worldwide shipped trade in these commodities will not necessarily grow, based on the analysis in this paper. In other words, if the low-carbon futures envisioned in the Paris Agreement materialise, energy-related shipping will likely decline (by a quarter for oil and by 50% for coal in the median < 2 °C scenarios by 2050), with significant ramifications for policies and regulation in the shipping sector and international trade.     

Study of thermal migration and induced mechanical effects in double U-tube energy piles

This paper investigates two geothermal energy piles using thermal response tests (TRTs). A set of parameters including pile wall temperature, ground temperature and strain are monitored at four different depths. The thermally induced mechanical behavior of the energy piles are then analyzed based on the monitoring data.The results show the following: (1) The temperature at the pile wall clearly varies throughout the heating and cooling cycle, and the ground temperature distribution shows a delay compared to the TRT stages. (2) The thermally induced mechanical effects are influenced by both the temperature and restraint conditions.     

Slope stability analysis by polar slice method in rotational failure mechanism

In this paper, a polar slice method is proposed to quantify the energy dissipation in the inner sliding soil mass and evaluate the slope stability in rotational failure mechanism. The polar slice method is compared with the vertical slice method. Despite similar results, the advantages of the polar slice method are explained. Besides, the comparison between the polar slice method and Chen’s method shows that the polar slice method would lead to more accurate results than Chen’s method, while Chen’s method which neglects the energy dissipation in the inner sliding soil mass is relatively conservative.     

Design energy input spectra for moderate-to-high seismicity regions based on Colombian earthquakes

Energy input spectra applicable to the seismic design of structures in moderate-to-high seismicity regions are proposed. Such design inputs are derived from the bilinear envelope of individual spectra obtained for 144 ground motions recorded in Colombia. In the short period region the spectra account for the increase of input energy, due to plastification of the structure, through a new formula derived from extensive nonlinear analyses. The proposed energy input design spectra are compared with the provisions of the Colombian seismic code, and with those proposed for Japan, Spain, Iran and Greece. It is found that the proposed spectra are more demanding than the current Colombian seismic code, and that they agree with those developed recently for six cities in Greece, yet applying a different approach. An empirical equation for estimating the portion of the total seismic input energy that contributes to structural damage is also developed.     

黄土覆盖区钼矿综合地球物理找矿技术组合:以沙坡岭钼矿为例

覆盖区寻找隐伏矿成为当前找矿工作的热点问题,为了能在地表地质信息少的黄土覆盖区,寻找隐伏的有经济价值的矿床,本文以沙坡岭钼矿为例,综合应用r能谱、高精度磁法、高密度电法三种地球物理方法进行找矿勘探,辅以偏提取化探法对地球物理异常进行约束,结合地质资料进行解译,预测了有利的成矿区域,通过钻探得到了有效验证,初步建立了黄土覆盖区钼矿的综合地球物理找矿模式,为下一步的综合勘探打下了基础.     

伴随着高速流的磁尾电流片拍动观测研究

磁尾电流片在磁尾动力学过程中起着重要作用.卫星观测表明磁尾电流片经常处于拍动状态.但磁尾电流片拍动的特性和产生机制至今仍然没有被完全弄清楚.本文主要利用欧洲空间局Cluster卫星数据,研究一个伴随高速离子流的电流片拍动事件.该电流片拍动事件具有很强的周期性.拍动的周期约是2min,磁场振荡幅度约为20nT.能量电子和离子的通量具有周期性增强和减弱的特征.电流密度X和Y分量也具有周期性的振荡,并且振荡周期与磁场振荡周期一致.通过对粒子流速矢量与电流矢量的分析,发现粒子运动具有涡旋的特征.因此可以推断,该磁尾电流片的拍动不是由磁尾等离子体片高速流产生的,而是与局地等离子体不稳定性有关.     

一阶多次波聚焦变换成像

将多次波转换成反射波并按传统反射波偏移算法成像,是多次波成像的一种方法.聚焦变换能准确的将多次波转换为纵向分辨率更高的新波场记录,其中一阶多次波转换为反射波.本文对聚焦变换提出了两点改进:1)提出局部聚焦变换,以减小存储量和计算量,增强该方法对检波点随炮点移动的采集数据的适应性;2)引入加权矩阵,理论上证明原始记录的炮点比检波点稀疏时,共检波点道集域的局部聚焦变换可以将多次波准确转换成炮点与检波点有相同采样频率的新波场记录.本文在第一个数值实验中对比了对包含反射波与多次波的原始记录做局部聚焦变换和直接对预测的多次波做局部聚焦变换两种方案,验证了第二种方案转换得到的波场记录信噪比更高且避免了第一个方案中切聚焦点这项比较繁杂的工作.第二个数值实验表明:在炮点采样较为稀疏时,该方法能有效的将一阶多次波转换成反射波;转换的反射波能提供更丰富的波场信息,成像结果更均衡、在局部有更高的信噪比,以及较高的纵向分辨率.     

Improved edge detection mapping through stacking and integration: a case study in the Bathurst Mining Camp

Airborne geophysical surveys provide spatially continuous regional data coverage, which directly reflects subsurface petrophysical differences and thus the underlying geology. A modern geologic mapping exercise requires the fusion of this information to complement what is typically limited regional outcrop. Often, interpretation of the geophysical data in a geological context is done qualitatively using total field and derivative maps. With a qualitative approach, the resulting map product may reflect the interpreter's bias. Source edge detection provides a quantitative means to map lateral physical property changes in potential and non‐potential field data. There are a number of Source edge detection algorithms, all of which apply a transformation to convert local signal inflections associated with source edges into local maxima. As a consequence of differences in their computation, the various algorithms generate slightly different results for any given source depth, geometry, contrast, and noise levels. To enhance the viability of any detected edge, it is recommended that one combines the output of several Source edge detection algorithms. Here we introduce a simple data compilation method, deemed edge stacking, which improves the interpretable product of Source edge detection through direct gridding, grid addition, and amplitude thresholding. In two examples, i.e., a synthetic example and a real‐world example from the Bathurst Mining Camp, New Brunswick, Canada, a number of transformation algorithms are applied to gridded geophysical data sets and the resulting Source edge detection solutions combined. Edge stacking combines the benefits and nuances of each Source edge detection algorithm; coincident or overlapping and laterally continuous solutions are considered more indicative of a true edge, whereas isolated points are taken as being indicative of random noise or false solutions. When additional data types are available, as in our example, they may also be integrated to create a more complete geologic model. The effectiveness of this method is limited only by the resolution of each survey data set and the necessity of lateral physical property contrasts. The end product aims at creating a petrophysical contact map, which, when integrated with known lithological outcrop information, can be led to an improved geological map.     

Local ground effects in near-field and far-field areas on seismically protected buildings

This paper presents a 2-D numerical study on the nonlinear seismic response of buildings equipped with two types of energy dissipators, which dissipate energy activating two different mechanisms. Three types of reinforced concrete buildings with 3, 7 and 15 stories, respectively representative of short, medium and long period ranges, are considered. Dissipators are placed on steel diagonal braces at all the floors; their sliding threshold (or yielding) forces are taken as 100% of those generated by the equivalent static lateral forces recommended by EC8 for a ductile moment resisting frame. The input consists of six recorded earthquakes, 3 representatives of near-field earthquakes and 3 representatives of far-field earthquakes. Each input is considered once from the bedrock and once filtered by a common ground with several layers of different thicknesses. The responses of the buildings are discussed and compared emphasizing the filtering effects produced by the ground.     

Mechanism and bounding of earthquake energy input to building structure on surface ground subjected to engineering bedrock motion

The mechanism of earthquake energy input to building structures is clarified by considering the surface ground amplification and soil–structure interaction. The earthquake input energies to superstructures, soil–foundation systems and total swaying–rocking system are obtained by taking the corresponding appropriate free bodies into account and defining the energy transfer functions. It has been made clear that, when the ground surface motion is white, the input energy to the swaying–rocking model is constant regardless of the soil property (input energy constant property). The upper bound of earthquake input energy to the swaying–rocking model is derived for the model including the surface ground amplification by taking full advantage of the above-mentioned input energy constant property and introducing the envelope function for the transfer function of the surface ground amplification. Extension of the theory to a general earthquake ground motion model at the engineering bedrock is also made by taking full advantage of the above-mentioned input energy constant property.