Water resources and climate change impact modelling on a daily time scale in the Peruvian Andes

Abstract

Estimating water resources is important for adequate water management in the future, but suitable data are often scarce. We estimated water resources in the Vilcanota basin (Peru) for the 1998–2009 period with the semi-distributed hydrological model PREVAH using: (a) raingauge measurements; (b) satellite rainfall estimates from the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA); and (c) ERA-Interim re-analysis data. Multiplicative shift and quantile mapping were applied to post-process the TMPA estimates and ERA-Interim data. This resulted in improved low-flow simulations. High-flow simulations could only be improved with quantile mapping. Furthermore, we adopted temperature and rainfall anomalies obtained from three GCMs for three future periods to make estimations of climate change impacts (Delta-change approach) on water resources. Our results show more total runoff during the rainy season from January to March, and temporary storages indicate that less water will be available in this Andean region, which has an effect on water supply, especially during dry season.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Gerten     

青海省尕斯库勒盐湖卤水水化学特征初步研究

通过尕斯库勒盐湖3种卤水(盐田卤水、晶间卤水和湖表卤水)的水化学成分、化学类型、相图研究,初步揭示了该湖不同类型卤水的水化学特征。研究表明,3种卤水的Ca2+、Mg2+、Cl-、SO24-、HCO3-均比柴达木盆地盐湖平均值高,尤以盐田卤水为高,然而K+、Na+相对较低。微量离子均匀性:晶间卤水>湖表卤水>盐田卤水;主要离子均匀性:湖表卤水>晶间卤水>盐田卤水。卤水划分为硫酸镁亚型和氯化物型两类,没有发现硫酸钠亚型和碳酸盐型。其中,盐田卤水全部为氯化物型;晶间卤水既有硫酸镁亚型也有氯化物型,硫酸镁亚型占41.67%,氯化物型占58.33%;湖表卤水大部分为氯化物型。总体而言,卤水变质程度较深,其中盐田卤水变质最深,湖表卤水次之,晶间卤水变质程度较浅。盐田卤水、晶间卤水、湖表卤水在Na+,K+,Mg2+∥Cl-,SO24--H2O五元体系介稳相图中的位置差别较大,表明各类卤水在演化阶段上存在较大差别。     

Modelling three‐dimensional geoscientific fields with the Voronoi diagram and its dual

Fields as found in the geosciences have properties that are not usually found in other disciplines: the phenomena studied are often three‐dimensional (3D), they tend to change continuously over time, and the collection of samples to study the phenomena is problematic, which often results in highly anisotropic distributions of samples. In the geographical information system (GIS) community, raster structures (voxels or octrees) are the most popular solutions, but, as we show in this paper, they have shortcomings for modelling and analysing 3D geoscientific fields. As an alternative to using rasters, we propose a new spatial model based on the Voronoi diagram (VD) and its dual the Delaunay tetrahedralisation (DT), and argue that they have many advantages over other tessellations. We discuss the main properties of the 3D VD/DT, present some GIS operations that are greatly simplified when the VD/DT is used, and, to analyse two or more fields, we also present a variant of the map algebra framework where all the operations are performed directly on VDs. The usefulness of this Voronoi‐based spatial model is demonstrated with a series of potential applications.     

Accurate fundamental parameters for lower main-sequence stars

We derive an empirical effective temperature and bolometric luminosity calibration for G and K dwarfs, by applying our own implementation of the Infrared Flux Method to multiband photometry. Our study is based on 104 stars for which we have excellent   BV ( RI )_C JHK _S  photometry, excellent parallaxes and good metallicities.
Colours computed from the most recent synthetic libraries (ATLAS9 and MARCS) are found to be in good agreement with the empirical colours in the optical bands, but some discrepancies still remain in the infrared. Synthetic and empirical bolometric corrections also show fair agreement.
A careful comparison to temperatures, luminosities and angular diameters obtained with other methods in the literature shows that systematic effects still exist in the calibrations at the level of a few per cent. Our Infrared Flux Method temperature scale is 100-K hotter than recent analogous determinations in the literature, but is in agreement with spectroscopically calibrated temperature scales and fits well the colours of the Sun. Our angular diameters are typically 3 per cent smaller when compared to other (indirect) determinations of angular diameter for such stars, but are consistent with the limb-darkening corrected predictions of the latest 3D model atmospheres and also with the results of asteroseismology.
Very tight empirical relations are derived for bolometric luminosity, effective temperature and angular diameter from photometric indices.
We find that much of the discrepancy with other temperature scales and the uncertainties in the infrared synthetic colours arise from the uncertainties in the use of Vega as the flux calibrator. Angular diameter measurements for a well-chosen set of G and K dwarfs would go a long way to addressing this problem.     

Experimental studies on pathway patterns of secondary oil migration

The oil migration patterns in porous medium are discussed based on the results of diphasic expulsing experiments. In the experiments, dyed kerosene was used as expulsing phase to expulse water saturated in a glass cylinder filled with sorted glass beads. Two series of experiments were done: one with different initial oil column heights and the other with variable oil injection rates. Three secondary migration patterns, including stable displacement pattern, fingering pattern and stringing pattern may be recognized in each series of experiments. Two classic dimensionless parameters, the modified Bond number and the Capillary number, were used to construct a phase diagram that may characterize the patterns. A new method was proposed to calculate the Darcian velocity of moving kerosene in the cylinder when only buoyancy force acts. It is found that when Darcian velocity is used to get the two dimensionless parameters, the data from both series of experiments, as well as those obtained from literatures, may be reasonably drawn in a phase diagram to identify the three migration patterns.     

A survey for planetary transits in the field of NGC 7789

We present results from 30 nights of observations of the open cluster NGC 7789 with the Wide Field Camera on the Isaac Newton Telescope, La Palma. From ∼900 epochs, we obtained light curves and Sloan   r '− i '  colours for ∼33 000 stars, with ∼2400 stars having better than 1 per cent precision. We expected to detect ∼2 transiting hot Jupiter planets if 1 per cent of stars host such a companion and a typical hot Jupiter radius is  ∼1.2  R _J  . We find 24 transit candidates, 14 of which we can assign a period. We rule out the transiting planet model for 21 of these candidates using various robust arguments. For two candidates, we are unable to decide on their nature, although it seems most likely that they are eclipsing binaries as well. We have one candidate exhibiting a single eclipse, for which we derive a radius of  1.81^+0.09_−0.00  R _J  . Three candidates remain that require follow-up observations in order to determine their nature.     

Luminosity and temperature relationships for extrasolar planets

A simple discussion of the final equilibrium state of extrasolar planetary evolution allows the determination of the luminosity and effective temperature of each planet which, in turn, allows the construction of a Hertzsprung–Russell diagram. The slope of the resulting line is found to be 4.5, similar to that which might be expected for isolated low-mass stars.     

紧急救援下障碍空间分析技术的应用

灾害紧急救援提出了对地理信息技术新的急迫要求：即动态GIS中的动态数据模型和“0”初始化计算问题障碍空间路径规划问题、“安全岛”问题——障碍空间最大（小）间隙问题、与安全区的k阶邻近问题,本文给出了这些问题的解决途径和解算实例。