基于Molchan图表法的新疆流体资料预报效能检验

通过三组具有代表性的数据(新04泉氢气原始数据、 新10泉水氡趋势提取数据、 新43泉气氡差分数据)检验实例, 介绍了如何用Molchan图表法进行检验和分析。 基于Molchan图表法对新疆地区地下流体预报效能评估等级较高的测项进行检验, 不仅可以直观地反应预报效能, 对观测资料进行评估, 又能对异常进行定量分析, 得到最佳阈值所对应的异常识别指标, 并在此基础上, 提取相对应的地震预测预报指标。 结果显示, 新疆地区地下流体各测项对于不同构造带上的地震预报效能各不相同, 分布在乌鲁木齐附近及天山以北地区的测项, 对北天山发生的地震预报效能较好, 多数测项优势对应时间段为短期, 说明短期预测效果较好。     

2019年吉林宁江MS5.1地震全矩张量反演及其发震机理初探

采用吉林、黑龙江、辽宁和内蒙古地震台网记录的地震波形数据,利用ISOLA近震全波形反演方法对2019年5月18日吉林宁江M_S5.1地震进行全矩张量反演。结果表明,该地震的最佳断层面解节面Ⅰ走向304°/倾角81°/滑动角26°,节面Ⅱ走向210°/倾角65°/滑动角170°;最佳矩心深度6km,矩震级M_W5.0。根据宁江M_S5.1地震序列展布形态,推断节面Ⅱ可能为优势发震断层面,即本次地震的主控断裂为扶余-肇东断裂,和与其正交的第二松花江断裂共同控制着余震展布方向。全矩张量解在Husdon震源类型图上的投影显示本次地震具有明显的非双力偶成分,是1次体积增加的张性破裂。根据区域地质构造特征和震源区接收函数、电磁测深和地下热结构等地球物理研究结果,综合分析认为在西太平洋板块作用形成俯冲带的同时,也相应地产生了热物质上涌,这些地球物理过程可能会改变莫霍面形态,使其向上突起并作用于活动断层,从而形成此次吉林宁江M_S5.1地震。     

巴彦岱1号井静水位周期变化主要影响因素研究

本文以巴彦岱1号井静水位为研究对象,分别应用别尔采夫滤波、小波分析与相关分析等方法,研究巴彦岱1号井静水位周期变化主要影响因素。分析结果表明,巴彦岱1号井静水位在日波、半日波频段主要受固体潮的影响;气压影响频段可能为64—256min、32—2048h（1—2个月周期的月波）2个频段,年周期变化与气温变化具有较强的线性相关性。     

New statistical methods for the comparison and characterization of particle shape

This paper presents novel methods for robust statistical testing of particle shape data. Shape (the relative lengths of three orthogonal axes) is a key property of sedimentary particles, providing information on provenance, transport history and depositional environment. However, the usefulness of shape data, including the ability to make robust comparisons between samples, has been constrained by the absence of a satisfactory definition of the mean shape for a sample of particles. Such a definition is proposed and used to develop confidence regions for the population mean shape using both parametric (theoretical) and computational (bootstrap) methods. These techniques are based on a transform that permits multivariate statistical methods for the analysis of compositional data to be extended to shape. These techniques are validated with reference to a dataset of 169 clast samples and found to perform well. A statistical test on the mean – using the multivariate extension of Student's t-test, Hotelling's T² – is presented. The benefits of the methods presented are demonstrated with reference to a case study. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

内蒙古大兴安岭林区雷击火灾气候成因分析

利用常规天气图、数值预报产品、卫星云图以及溃变理论的预报工具V-3θ图,对2005年6月30日至7月2日发生在青藏高原东北侧甘肃省区域性持续暴雨天气过程进行了诊断应用综合分析.结果表明:副热带高压西伸北抬外围西南风气流控制青藏高原东北侧,当东北低涡、西风带的冷空气与西南风交汇时,触发强对流;850～200hPa有深厚的水汽层;700 hPa稳定的低涡切变为暴雨提供了强烈持续的辐合上升运动;卫星云图表明持续性暴雨由多个相继生消的中尺度对流系统影响造成的.基于溃变理论的预报方法在西北区域性持续暴雨的起报、结束及落区有很好的预测能力.     

METAMODELLING APPROACH TO DESIGN THE ALLUVIAL CHANNELS AT INCIPIENT MOTION

The design of an alluvial channel for critical conditions requires information about four basic parameters, i.e., particle size d, water depth y, energy slope Sf and average velocity u. Most of the investigators use a standard or modified form of the critical Shields’ parameter to define the incipient motion of a particular grain size. Shields’ diagram describes an iterative process of determining the incipient motion parameters. To design a process that does not require iteration, one must know the resistance relationship. The absence of a universal resistance equation increases the difficulty of defining the model. Metamodelling techniques are widely used in engineering designs to simulate a complex system. This article describes a Metamodel, which employs the radial basis function (RBF) network to predict the average velocity u and energy slope Sf based on experimental data of incipient condition. With the help of the Metamodel generated by the RBF network, design curves have been presented to predict the u and Sf based on known values of the particle size and water depth. It has been found that this model improves the predictability of incipient motion.     

The metal homogeneity of the globular star cluster M5

This work is concerned with the precision measurement of the magnitudes of the stars across a large field of the galactic globular cluster M5. The colours of the red giants are subjected to a thorough statistical analysis in order to quantify the extent of any star-to-star variations in metal abundance within the cluster. Use is made of an extensive optical/near-infrared observational data set acquired with a large-array CCD detector and the Johnson V and I filters. The results of this photometry, which is accurate to within a few millimagnitudes for the brighter stars, are used to compile a colour–magnitude diagram.
The analysis finds that in a metal-rich M5 ([Fe/H]=−1.2) the extent of any metal inhomogeneity, Δ[Fe/H], is less than ±0.1 dex, and in a metal-poor M5 ([Fe/H]=−1.5) then     . (The literature contains a range of derived values of metallicity for M5.)     

阿尔泰成矿区金矿预测图形库及属性库的建立方法

详细介绍阿尔泰成矿区金矿预测图形库及属性库的建立原则及方法 ,尤其是图层划分的一般原则、属性结构建立及属性分类方法。图层划分应依据研究中所形成的认识和矿产预测信息处理的需要 ,便于输入调用和分析 ,同一类图元、属性结构一致的图元尽可能放到同一图层。最后给出了阿尔泰成矿区图形库和属性库的具体内容。     

重庆市房价与地价影响因素实证研究

房价与地价的影响因素多且因素之间相关关系复杂,本次研究通过收集整理重庆市房价与地价的相关数据,采用政策因素、宏观区位因素、微观区位因素、平均容积率因素、规划因素、路网密度因素来研究房价与地价之间的关系,通过建立因素间的通径图构建房价地价的结构方程模型,详细分析了各因素之间的影响关系.