Are modern metaheuristics successful in calibrating simple conceptual rainfall–runoff models?

In recent years sampling approaches have been used more widely than optimization algorithms to find parameters of conceptual rainfall–runoff models, but the difficulty of calibration of such models remains in dispute. The problem of finding a set of optimal parameters for conceptual rainfall–runoff models is interpreted differently in various studies, ranging from simple to relatively complex and difficult. In many papers, it is claimed that novel calibration approaches, so-called metaheuristics, outperform the older ones when applied to this task, but contradictory opinions are also plentiful. The present study aims at calibration of two simple lumped conceptual hydrological models, HBV and GR4J, by means of a large number of metaheuristic algorithms. The tests are performed on four catchments located in regions with relatively similar climatic conditions, but on different continents. The comparison shows that, although parameters found may somehow differ, the performance criteria achieved with simple lumped models calibrated by various metaheuristics are very similar and differences are insignificant from the hydrological point of view. However, occasionally some algorithms find slightly better solutions than those found by the vast majority of methods. This means that the problem of calibration of simple lumped HBV or GR4J models may be deceptive from the optimization perspective, as the vast majority of algorithms that follow a common evolutionary principle of survival of the fittest lead to sub-optimal solutions.     

Job-related mobility and plant performance in Sweden

This paper uses a Swedish micro-dataset containing 2,696,909 hires during the period 2002–2006 to assess the impact of job-related mobility on plant-level performance. The analysis classifies new recruits according to their work experience and level of formal qualification, as well as by the region of origin and of destination. New hires are divided into graduates and experienced workers and between high- and low-educated. The results point towards the importance of acknowledging both the experience and the skills of new recruits. The greatest benefits are related to hiring new workers from outside the region where the plant is located. The analysis also stresses the importance of geography, with plants in metropolitan regions gaining the most from labour mobility, while the benefits of mobility for plants in smaller, more peripheral regions are more diverse and dependent on both the type and origin of new workers.     

J1128+592: a highly variable IDV source

Short time‐scale radio variations of compact extragalactic radio quasars and blazars known as IntraDay Variability (IDV) can be explained in at least some sources as a propagation effect; the variations are interpreted as scintillation of radio waves in the turbulent interstellar medium of the Milky Way. One of the most convincing observational arguments in favor of a propagation‐induced variability scenario is the observed annual modulation in the characteristic time scale of the variation due to the Earth's orbital motion. So far there are only two sources known with a well‐constrained seasonal cycle. Annual modulation has been proposed for a few other less well‐documented objects. However, for some other IDV sources source‐intrinsic structural variations which cause drastic changes in the variability time scale were also suggested. J1128+592 is a recently discovered, highly variable IDV source. Previous, densely time‐sampled flux‐density measurements with the Effelsberg 100‐m radio telescope (Germany) and the Urumqi 25‐m radio telescope (China), strongly indicate an annual modulation of the time scale. The most recent 4 observations in 2006/7, however, do not fit well to the annual modulation model proposed before. In this paper, we investigate a possible explanation of this discrepancy. (© 2007 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

基于ArcIMS与J2EE城市信息发布系统的设计与应用

介绍了基于ArcIMS和J2EE体系结构集成开发城市信息发布系统的总体框架设计、数据库设计和系统功能设计,并采用此设计方案实现了一个具体实例。     

Synchrotron emission model of RX J1856.5-3754

A plasma emission model is presented interpreting the observational properties of RX J1856.5-3754. In particular, on the basis of the Vlasov’s kinetic equation we study the process of the quasi-linear diffusion (QLD) developed by means of the cyclotron instability. This mechanism provides simultaneous generation of optical and X-ray emission on the light cylinder scales, in one location of the pulsar magnetosphere. It is assumed that the observed X-ray spectrum of this source is generated via the synchrotron mechanism. A different approach of the synchrotron theory is considered, giving a spectral energy distribution that is in a good agreement with the observational data.     

Dynamique et modélisation des crues dans le bassin du Mono à Nangbéto (Togo/Bénin)

Résumé

Les inondations des dernières années en Afrique de l’Ouest rendent nécessaire la prévision hydrologique pour réduire la vulnérabilité des populations. Nous avons étudié la dynamique des crues dans le bassin du Mono en amont du barrage de Nangbéto (Togo et Bénin) par des méthodes statistiques et déterministes. L’augmentation des précipitations au cours de la décennie 1990 et la mise en eau du barrage de Nangbéto en 1988 ont modifié le régime du Mono, dont les débits d’étiages ont augmenté. Les débits entrants et sortants du barrage sont équivalents, même lors des crues. Les maximums annuels des débits entrants peuvent être modélisés par une distribution des valeurs extrêmes (GEV) de type Fréchet, tandis que ceux des débits sortants, suivent une loi GEV de type Weibull (bornée). Le mécanisme dominant de génération des crues dans le bassin est la montée progressive des eaux associée à l’augmentation de la saturation des sols. L’analyse des débits de crue entre 1988 et 2010 n’a pas montré d’augmentation de la magnitude ou de la fréquence des crues. Le modèle GR4J reproduit bien les débits de crues en période calage, mais ces critères de performance se dégradent lorsque l’on s’en éloigne. Dans ces conditions, l’utilisation de ce modèle pour évaluer les risques futurs de crues serait hasardeuse et il est nécessaire d’envisager d’autres types d’approches.