An ensemble approach for the analysis of extreme rainfall under climate change in Naples (Italy)

In the present paper, an ensemble approach is proposed to estimate possible modifications caused by climate changes in the extreme precipitation regime, with the rain gauge Napoli Servizio Idrografico (Naples, Italy) chosen as test case. The proposed research, focused on the analysis of extremes on the basis of climate model simulations and rainfall observations, is structured in several consecutive steps. In the first step, all the dynamically downscaled EURO‐CORDEX simulations at about 12 km horizontal resolution are collected for the current period 1971–2000 and the future period 2071–2100, for the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 concentration scenarios. In the second step, the significance of climate change effects on extreme precipitation is statistically tested by comparing current and future simulated data and bias‐correction is performed by means of a novel approach based on a combination of simple delta change and quantile delta mapping, in compliance with the storm index method. In the third step, two different ensemble models are proposed, accounting for the variabilities given by the use of different climate models and for their hindcast performances. Finally, the ensemble models are used to build novel intensity–duration–frequency curves, and their effects on the early warning system thresholds for the area of interest are evaluated.     

松辽盆地南部月亮泡地区萨尔图油层Ⅰ砂组沉积微相研究及有利区带预测

应用录井、测井、地质和地震资料,研究了松辽盆地南部月亮泡地区上白垩统姚家组萨尔图油层Ⅰ砂组的沉积微相,并采用沿层地震属性分析技术,分析了河道砂体的展布特征,利用拟合分析进行验证,结果表明萨尔图油层Ⅰ砂组沉积相为三角洲前缘亚相,其微相类型有水下分流河道、河口坝和分流间湾,已有的勘探成果也证实水下分流河道砂体是油气的有利聚集区,结合构造发育情况,预测了松辽盆地南部月亮泡地区构造岩性油气藏勘探的有利区带     

The Holocene Evolution of the Ebre Delta Catalonia, Spain

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Late Quaternary Seismic Stratigraphy of the Eastern Bengal Shelf

An ultra-high-resolution seismic study of the eastern Bengal Shelf with the parametric narrow-beam echosounder Parasound allows the interpretation of late Quaternary depositional patterns in terms of seismic stratigraphy. Accommodation space was still present on the outer shelf during the last lowstand, where a prograding delta developed in the western survey area. Oolitic beach ridges were later formed on top of this lowstand delta. Farther east, large parts of the shelf were exposed to subaerial erosion and a river system extended seaward across the area. A subaqueous highstand delta prograded southwards following the maximum transgression about 7,000 years ago. Its foreset beds exhibit acoustic voids very likely generated by sediment liquefaction, possibly caused by episodic energetic events such as major cyclones and/or earthquakes. Bottomset sediments extend seaward close to the shelf break in the west, whereas no Holocene sediments cover the outer shelf in the east.     

闽江口水下三角洲的形成与演变──Ⅰ.水下三角洲形成的环境因子与地貌发育

从分析控制或影响闽江口水下三角洲发育的环境因素入手,探讨了闽江口水下三角洲的地貌特征、成因及演变。结果表明,闽江口水下三角洲属于构造-潮控型三角洲,其地貌特征和成因与典型的潮成三角洲既有共同点,也存在着较大的差异。此外,其近期地貌的发育和演变亦受到人类工程活动的重大影响。这些结论可为闽江口航道综合整治工程提供科学理论依据。本文为其第一部分,主要探讨控制或影响闽江口水下三角洲形成的环境因子与地貌发育。     

广丰松峰盆地的扇三角洲特征

本文通过对盆地岩性组合和沉积的构造特点的分析,得出丰松峰盆地的沉积体系为扇三角洲。     

湖盆扇三角洲河口坝发育程度及粒度韵律特征:以滦平盆地桑园剖面下白垩统西瓜园组为例*

扇三角洲作为重要的油气储集场所,其成因单元类型及分布特征控制着油气的差异分布及采出效率。关于扇三角洲分流河道沉积特征已有共识,但河口坝沉积特征尤其是韵律特征尚存在争议。以滦平盆地桑园剖面下白垩统西瓜园组湖盆扇三角洲沉积体为例,通过人工实测及无人机观测相结合的方法,对河口坝沉积特征、尤其是韵律特征进行研究,利用水槽模拟实验阐明河口坝韵律特征的形成机理。结果表明,河口坝在整个剖面中占砂(砾)岩体的45.27%,分流河道和席状砂分别占53.42%和1.31%。河口坝在剖面上呈底平顶凸状,通常由多期增生体组成。当增生体主要由砂岩组成时,呈粒度反韵律特征; 而当增生体主要由砾岩组成时,呈粒度正韵律特征。河口坝整体韵律受控于增生体的垂向叠置样式,既可呈反韵律特征又可呈正韵律特征。当流量、沉积底形坡度等地质条件一定时,河口坝内部增生体韵律性主要受沉积物粒度控制。当沉积物粒度较细时,河口水流扩散模式为底床摩擦力主控,增生体呈现反韵律特征; 而当沉积物粒度较粗时,河口水流扩散模式为惯性力主控,河口坝增生体则呈现正韵律特征。     

地形、气候与湖面波动对浅水三角洲沉积环境的控制作用——以松辽盆地北部东区葡萄花油层为例

松辽盆地北部东区葡萄花油层沉积时期,基底整体一致下降,气候干旱,地形平缓,河流入湖发育浅水三角洲。三角洲平原上的分流河道通过填积和湖面的频繁波动向湖泊中心方向长距离推进,在三角洲前缘的浅水区发育很有特色的水下分流河道,发育了宽展的三角洲前缘相沉积。在平面上,三角洲平原与宽展的三角洲前缘、前三角洲平缓相接,不存在Gilbert型三角洲模式的顶积层、前积层、底积层三褶结构。     

Architecture of a tide-influenced river delta in the Frontier Formation of central Wyoming, USA

The Frewens sandstone is composed of two elongate tide-influenced sandstone bodies that are positioned directly above and slightly landward of a more wave-influenced lobate sandstone. The 20-km-long, 3-km-wide Frewens sandstone bodies coarsen upwards and fine away from their axes, have gradational bases and margins and have eroded tops abruptly overlain by marine shales. These sandstones are superbly exposed in large cliffs on the banks of the South Fork of the Powder River in central Wyoming, USA. The deposits change upwards from thinly interbedded sandstones and mudstones to metre-thick heterolithic cross-strata and, finally, to metres-thick sandstone-dominated cross-strata. There is abundant evidence for tidal modulation of depositional flows; however, palaeocurrents were strongly ebb-dominated and nearly parallel the trend of sandstone-body elongation. Detailed mapping of stratal geometry and facies across these exposures shows a complex internal architecture. Large-scale bedding units within sandstone bodies are defined by alternations in facies, bed thickness and the abundance of shales. Such bedsets are inclined (5°–15°) in walls oriented parallel to palaeoflow and gradually decrease in dip over hundreds of metres as they extend from the sandstone-dominated deposits higher in a sandstone body to muddier deposits lower in the body. Where viewed perpendicular to palaeoflow, bedsets are 100-metre-wide lenses that shingle off the sandstone-body axis towards its margins. The sandstone bodies are interpreted as sand ridge deposits formed on the shoreface of a tide-influenced river delta. Metres-thick cross-strata in the upper parts of sandstone bodies resemble deposits of bars (sandwaves) formed where tidal currents moved across shallows and the tops of tidal ridges. Heterolithic deposits lower in sandstone bodies record fluctuating currents caused by ebb and flood tides and varying river discharge. Erosion surfaces capping sandstone bodies record tidal ravinement. The tidal ridges were abandoned following transgression and covered with marine mud as waters deepened.     

现代黄河三角洲滨浅海区的灾害地质

利用卫星遥感、测深、浅地层剖面及钻孔资料研究了黄河三角洲海岸及近海海洋灾害地质,编制了黄河三角洲海洋灾害地质图。黄河三角洲海岸灾害地质以海岸侵蚀为主,根据1976—2001年海岸的变化速率,可将海岸分为快速侵蚀海岸、中等程度侵蚀海岸、稳定海岸和淤积海岸四类,快速侵蚀海岸和中等程度侵蚀海岸长期以来遭受侵蚀。灾害地质因素有浅层气、灾害地貌、活动断层、海底滑坡、底辟、隆起脊、埋藏冲沟一古河道。浅层气主要分布在老黄河口附近渤海海底,近岸少见。浅层灾害地貌主要分布在三角洲前缘斜坡上的扰动区。扰动区位置在整个三角洲上变动明显,有向岸移动的趋势,斜坡坡度减小,扰动强度减弱。底辟除了发生在废弃三角洲侵蚀区外,还发生在三角洲外的渤海海底下部。隆起脊位于黄河口东部渤海海底,沿NE—SW方向发育,顺隆起脊发育活动断层。