ENSO动力学与预测

发生在热带太平洋地区的ENSO现象是海气相互作用的集中表现,是年际气候变化中的最强信号.由于它的发生会在全球许多地区引起严重的气候异常,极大地影响着这些地区的工农业生产和人民生活,因此,对ENSO的机理及其预测的研究一直是大气海洋界的一个热点研究课题.中国科学院大气物理研究所在ENSO的机理及其预测等方面进行了大量的研究,取得了许多研究成果.作者将对中国科学院大气物理研究所在这方面的一些研究成果进行回顾和介绍.     

Creating a GIS application for retail centers in Jeddah city

The aim of this paper is to identify the role of geographical information systems (GIS) in supporting retail planners in monitoring and analyzing retail development and growth. At first, a review about retail planning and its relevant issues is made. Second, GIS is defined together with its applications in retail planning. The third part discusses the created GIS application that is designed for two retail centers in Jeddah city, Saudi Arabia. This application is created to help planners in defining the distribution of retail demand, describing customers profile, analyzing trade areas and modeling retail flows. Two useful models have been produced by this study. One is called market penetration and the other is based on spatial interaction technique. The former is created to examine retail center catchment area, while the latter is used to model the interaction between demand areas and retail centers.     

无伸缩缝桥梁的动力特性研究

针对无伸缩缝桥梁的结构特点，提出一个土-结构的非线性相互作用模型。在此基础上对-无伸缩缝实桥建立有限元模型，分析了不同烈度地震作用下结构的动力特性，并与相应的有伸缩缝桥梁进行比较。文中还计算了主要结构参数对动力特性的影响。研究结果有助于对该类桥梁力学性能的认识。     

确定结构基底等效输入地震动的简化方法

本文用理论和实例计算分析了土与结构间的动力相互作用。根据基底等效输入的地震动相对入射地震动的传递函数特点研究出了一种等效输入的方法，该方法比较好地反映了场地和结构的动力特性对基底等效输入的影响。为利用刚性基底假设理论来分析土-结构动力相互作用提供了一种方法。     

长江巨洪的强信号探讨

分析了1900年以来长江3次巨洪的3个强信号：(1)太阳黑子活动，(2)厄尔尼诺事件，(3)青藏高原南部大震，它们对大气环流异常的影响分别称为日气作用、海气作用、地气作用，依据长江巨洪和3个强信号的基本事实，讨论了长江发生巨洪的统计规律，指出当3个强信号的出现时间互相重叠时，长江很可能发生巨洪，如果再叠加其它信号，长江发生巨洪的量级更大，这对长江巨洪的超长期预期具有重要的指示作用。     

Modelling of the OASIS Energy Flux Measurements Using Two Canopy Concepts

Two land surface schemes, SCAM and CSIRO9, were used to model the measured energy fluxes during the OASIS (Observations At Several Interacting Scales) field program. The measurements were taken at six sites along a 100 km rainfall gradient. Two types of simulations were conducted: (1) offline simulations forced with measured atmospheric input data at each of the six sites, and (2) regional simulations with the two land surface schemes coupled to the regional climate model DARLAM.The two land surface schemes employ two different canopy modelling concepts: in SCAM the vegetation is conceptually above the ground surface, while CSIRO9 employs the more commonly used `horizontally tiled' approach in which the vegetation cover is modelled by conceptually placing it beside bare ground. Both schemes utilize the same below-ground components (soil hydrological and thermal models) to reduce the comparison to canopy processes only. However, the ground heat flux, soil evaporation and evapotranspiration are parameterised by the two canopy treatments somewhat differently.Both canopy concepts reproduce the measured energy fluxes. SCAM has a slightly higher root-mean standard error in the model-measurement comparison for the ground heat flux. The mean surface radiative temperature simulated by SCAM is approximately 1K lower than in the CSIRO9 simulations. However, the soil and vegetation temperatures (which contribute to the radiative temperature) varied more in the CSIRO9 simulations. These larger variations are due to the absence of a representation of the aerodynamic interactions between vegetation and ground.     

我国9大气候区降水特性及其物理成因的研究Ⅰ——基本特性分析

首先利用旱涝Z指数对全国9大气候区的旱涝进行了评定，并给出我国9大气候区旱涝Z指数的分布图。分析结果表明，1950年代我国除新疆地区处于偏早期外，其它几个区都处于多雨量期，1960年代由多雨向少雨转变的时期，1970年代——1980年代中期我国大部分地区处于雨量偏少期；1990年之后我国各个区的雨量都有所增加。此外，还应用Morlet小波变化对我国9大气候区降水的旱涝周期变化、旱涝分型及变化趋势进行了分析。研究结果表明：在16年、32年层次变化上，各气候区在不同时间段上，8年层次上降水的变化出现了一定的规律：东北、华北在1980年之后存在1年位相差；而长江中下游、江南及华南三者之间在1951～1970年时段上依次有着2年的位相差；长江中下游、内蒙及新疆之间依次存在着3年位相差。     

STUDY ON THE AIR-SEA INTERACTION ON THE INTERANNUAL TIME SCALE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA*

In this paper we document the correlationship between sea surface temperature(SST) and low level-winds such as sea level wind and 850 hPa wind in the South China Sea(SCS) based on COADS(1958-1987) and ECMWF objective analysis data(1973-1986).Further statistical analyses tell us that there is a fixed SCS basin mode for variations both of SST and low-level winds in the region on the interannual time scale due to air-sea interactions.A simplified,coupled model that is designed following the McCreary and Anderson's(1985) model and includes the feedback between the upper ocean and the circulation of East Asian monsoon demonstrates an interannual oscillation in the coupled air-sea system,which is similar to the observations in the SCS.     

沉积盆地流体—岩石相互作用研究的现状

沉积盆地流体－岩石相互作用研究主要是通过实验地球化学和岩石学，地球化学模拟方法开展的，综述了这一领域的研究现状，主要包括有机酸来源和分布及期 对矿物稳定性的影响，地层水成因与演化、烃类与岩石间的氧化还原反应、以及储层润湿性的变化等，并展望了其 发展趋势。     

剪切带的流体－岩石相互作用

作为大陆岩石圈中的应变局部化带，剪切带中一般都渗透着大量流体。流体的来源与剪切带所处的构造背景、流变域和水文条件有关，而剪切带中流体的流动则受岩石的渗透率、孔隙度、孔隙性质、流体的扩散和渗透能力、环境的温压条件、应力或载荷的梯度等因素所制约。剪切带中流体的成分、通量及赋存状态或流动方式，直接影响着岩石的流变。由应变局部化及力学失稳所引起的化学不平衡和由流体与岩石的相互作用，使剪切带岩石的矿物成分和化学成分发生调整，其变异程度取决于原岩的性质、剪切的温压条件和流体的成分及通量等。由于流体的渗透流动和流体与岩石的相互作用使剪切带的体积有所变化，体积变化过程是一种自组织行为。较大的体积亏损，意味着剪切带中渗透过大量的流体，这对剪切带的流变行为、化学行为和成矿作用都有深刻的影响。