FY-4A卫星闪电资料与ADTD闪电资料在四川省冕宁暴雨中的对比分析及数值模拟

FY-4A卫星闪电资料与地基ADTD(Advanced Direction and Time of arrival Detecting system)闪电资料对于研究暴雨等强对流天气具有一定的指示意义,通过对四川省冕宁暴雨个例的研究,对比分析了这两种闪电资料的差别,设计了将两种闪电资料引入数值预报模式的多组数值试验。结果表明：（1）两种闪电资料在不同地区有不同的探测效果,ADTD闪电资料范围更广且分散,FY-4A卫星监测到的闪电数量更密集、分布更集中;两种闪电资料在进入模式之后所转化成的代理雷达回波具有很好的一致性;对于低频次的闪电来说,ADTD闪电定位仪可能比FY-4A闪电成像仪探测效率更高。（2）引入任何一种闪电资料都对降水预报具有正效果,其中ADTD闪电资料的应用对于短时降水预报准确率的提高更为有效。（3）两种闪电资料对于云微物理量的调整作用,在不同的区域有不同效果,说明这两种闪电资料的分布不完全一致,揭示出这两种闪电资料具有一定的互补性。     

NOAA气象卫星云检测方法的研究

为了提高气象卫星资料的可用性，排除云干扰，本文根据云的时空分布变化特征，对可见光波段反射率和热红外波段温度进行分析和研究，提出了可见光反射率自动判云、热红外温度自动判云，可见光和热红外组合判云以及设立云区阈值判云等一系列检测方法。并对检测出的云区采用同周期相近时相的图像资料相对变化率来反演替代云区灰度值。保证了图像的连续性和客观性，取得了较好的效果。     

Characteristics of cloud drop spectra in tropical warm clouds

Characteristics of cloud drop spectra were studied using 400 samples obtained from 120 warm cumulus clouds formed during the summer monsoon season.The total concentration of cloud drops (N _T) varied from 384 to 884 cm^–3 and the maximum concentration was observed in the layer below the cloud-top. The width of the drop spectrum was broader in the cloud-base region and in the region below the cloud-top. The spectrum was multimodal at all levels except in the cloud-top region where it was unimodal. The concentration of drops with diameter greater than 50 m (N _L) varied from 0.0 to 0.674 cm^–3.N _L was larger in the cloud-base region.N _L decreased with height up to the middle level and thereafter showed an increase. In the cloud-top region no large drops were present. The computed values of the liquid water varied between 0.132 and 0.536 g m^–3 and the mean volume diameter (MVD) varied between 8.1 and 12.0 m. The LWC and MVD showed a decrease with height except in the middle region of the cloud where the values were higher than the adjacent levels. The dispersion of the cloud drops was lower (0.65) in the cloud-top region and higher (1.01) in the cloud-base region.The observed cloud microphysical characteristics were attributed to vertical mixing in clouds induced by the cloud-top gravity oscillations (buoyancy oscillations) generated by the intensification of turbulent eddies due to the buoyant production of energy by the microscale-fractional-condensation (MFC) in turbulent eddies.     

On the hydrodynamic behavior of supercooled water drops interacting with columnar ice crystals

A numerical evaluation of the complete Navier-Stokes equations of motion for steady-state, incompressible flow past an infinite circular cylinder is given in terms of the stream function, vorticity, and pressure distribution past such bodies. A method is described which allows use of these flow characteristics: (1) to approximate the characteristics of air flow past hexagonal columnar ice crystals falling under gravity at terminal velocity in air, (2) to compute the trajectory of supercooled cloud drops relative to such ice crystals, and (3) to determine the efficiency with which short columnar ice crystals and needle shaped ice crystals collide with supercooled cloud drops. It is found that for all columnar type ice crystals riming is negligible if the cloud drop size is less than 5 m, and that for riming to commence short columnar crystals must have diameters larger than 50 m, while needle crystals must have diameters larger than 40 m. It is further shown that the collision efficiency cut-offs at the small drop radius and at the large drop radius end of the collision efficiency diagram can be explained on the basis of the cloud drop trajectories for these drop size ranges.     

Estimation of flow enhancement in the Kinneret watershed due to cloud seeding

A comparison is carried out between historical records of the flow measured in Kinneret watershed during and prior to the time of cloud seeding for rainfall enhancement. Precipitation series for the control area of the meteorological experimentation serve as a reference for the comparison. The fluctuations of the flow, which would have occurred unless the effect of the seeding, are estimated by a linear regression on the precipitation as the control. The regression parameters are calibrated separately for the unseeded and for the seeded time series. The model with the parameters calibrated for the unseeded series is applied on the rainfall recorded during the seeded time, and vice versa. The difference between the measured and the computed data is attributed to the effect of cloud seeding. Similar comparisons are carried out with respect to rainfall series recorded at the target area and at the edge of the enhanced area.The results indicate that the flow from the affected sector of the watershed has been enhanced, with respect to the control, by 31×10⁶ m ³/year, at a significance level of 31. This enhancement is 5% of the volume which is generated in that area. The rates found with respect to the rainfall at the edge are higher than those found with respect to the control, while those with respect to the rainfall at the center of the target area are lower.     

The statistical effects of galactic tides on the Oort cloud

This report is a comment on two papers by Matese and Whitman (1989, 1992). We discuss here the applicability of uniform probability densities for the orbital parameters of the Oort cloud comets.     

GRAPES_Meso区域模式积云计算方案引进及预报效果检验

云量在模式中的准确模拟既是一个重点问题,也是一个难点问题。经评估发现,在GRAPES_Meso（Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System）模式中存在模拟云量偏少的问题,而ECMWF模式中的积云云量计算方案对云量模拟具有一定优势。鉴于此,本文借鉴ECMWF积云云量计算方案对GRAPES中尺度模式中的云量计算方案进行了适当改进,并通过影响试验模拟三维云量和地面温度来验证其改进效果。结果表明:较改进前,改进云量方案模拟的云量增多,单层云量更加准确,垂直方向云层结构改进效果明显;地面温度与观测值对比误差减小。综合分析模拟结果,认为改进云量计算方案在GRAPES模式中对云量和地面温度的模拟有较好的改进。     

河南省2005-06-21强对流天气分析

利用天气图和FY-2C的卫星云图及其反演产品,分析了2005年6月21日凌晨到上午河南省中部的雷雨大风和冰雹天气过程,结果表明:高空冷平流、地面辐合线和前期贮存的较高不稳定能量,为此次强对流天气过程提供了极为有利的不稳定能量和动力条件;在灾害性天气发生的前期,FY-2C卫星云图及其反演产品有很好的指示性,云顶亮温梯度大的区域是灾害性天气的易发区,对流性降水易发生在高层急流南侧的低层高湿区。