GRAPES全球模式次网格对流过程对云预报的影响研究

50 km分辨率下的GRAPES全球模式对赤道及低纬度地区云水、云冰、云量和格点降水的预报较实际观测偏少。为解决这一问题,在模式原有的格点尺度云方案基础上,将次网格对流过程的影响作为源汇项,加入到云水、云冰和总云量的预报方程中。结合云和地球辐射能量系统(CERES)与热带降雨测量(TRMM)等卫星云观测资料,进行了改进后的云方案与原云方案预报结果的对比分析。结果显示,考虑了对流对格点尺度云含水量和云量预报的影响后,GRAPES全球模式预报的云和格点降水在赤道及低纬度地区有明显改善,水凝物含水量和总云量的预报结果与实况较为接近,格点降水在总降水中的比例由原来的5%提高到25%。研究进一步表明,次网格对流过程对格点尺度云和降水的影响取决于上升气流质量通量的分布和强度,上升气流的质量通量在对流活动强烈的低纬度热带地区较强,其最大值出现在650—450 hPa高度,因此,次网格对流的卷出过程对中云的影响最为明显。对高云和低云也有一定程度的影响,使云顶变高,云底变低。     

长周期彗星动力学特性统计研究

基于JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory)和MPC (Minor Planet Center)的彗星观测数据, 对长周期彗星(Long Period Comet, LPC)的轨道进行逆向演化, 得到其原始轨道, 并分析了LPC的观测轨道和原始轨道的动力学特性. 研究表明: LPC观测轨道半长轴倒数(1/a)_obs和原始轨道半长轴倒数(1/a)_ori分布存在显著差异, 峰值分别位于(1/a)_obs～ 2 × 10^-5au^-1和(1/a)_ori～ 6 × 10^-5au^-1; 大近日点LPC(近日点距离q > 3.1 au)和小近日点LPC (近日点距离q 3.1 au)的原始轨道(1/a)_ori峰值位置相同, 均位于1 × 10^-4au^-1; JPL和MPC数据中LPC的原始轨道(1/a)_obs峰...     

Cloud contribution to the daily and annual radiation budget in a mountainous valley

An automated-ventilated radiation station has been set up in a mountainous valley at the Logan Airport in northern Utah, USA, since mid-1995, to evaluate the daily and annual radiation budget components, and develop an algorithm to study cloudiness and its contribution to the daily and annual radiation. This radiation station (composed of pyranometers, pyrgeometers and a net radiometer) provides continuous measurements of downward and upward shortwave, longwave and net radiation throughout the year. The surface temperature and pressure, the 2-m air temperature and humidity, precipitation, and wind at this station were also measured. A heated rain gauge provided precipitation information. Using air temperature and moisture and measured downward longwave (atmospheric) radiation, appropriate formula (among four approaches) was chosen for computation of cloudless-skies atmospheric emissivity. Considering the additional longwave radiation during the cloudy skies coming from the cloud in the waveband which the gaseous emission lacks (from 8–13 μm), an algorithm was developed which provides continuous 20-min cloud information (cloud base height, cloud base temperature, percent of skies covered by cloud, and cloud contribution to the radiation budget) over the area during day and night. On the partly-cloudy day of 3 February, 2003, for instance, cloud contributed 1.34 MJ m^− 2 d^− 1 out of 26.92 MJ m^− 2 d^− 1 to the daily atmospheric radiation. On the overcast day of 18 December, 2003, this contribution was 5.77 MJ m^− 2 d^− 1 out of 29.38 MJ m^− 2 d^− 1. The same contribution for the year 2003 amounted to 402.85 MJ m^− 2 y^− 1 out of 9976.08 MJ m^− 2 y^− 1. Observations (fog which yielded a zero cloud base height and satellite cloud imaging data) throughout the year confirmed the validity of the computed data. The nearby Bowen ratio station provided the downward radiation and net radiation data. If necessary, these data could be substituted for the missing data at the radiation station. While the automated surface observing systems (ASOS) ceilometer at the Logan airport provides only the overhead cloud information, the proposed algorithm provides this information over the valley. The proposed algorithm is a promising approach for evaluation of the cloud base temperature, cloud base height, percent of skies covered by cloud, and cloud contribution to the daily and annual radiation budget at local and regional scales.     

黄山地区不同高度云凝结核的观测分析

为研究华东高山地区云凝结核（Cloud Condensation Nuclei,CCN）沿山峰的垂直变化特征,2011年6月利用云凝结核计数器（Cloud Condensation Nuclei Counter,CCNC）在黄山三个不同高度处对CCN进行观测。观测结果表明,不同高度的CCN浓度随时间的变化趋势基本一致,CCN浓度随高度的升高而减小,过饱和度为0.8%时山顶、山腰、山底CCN浓度平均值分别为1105.62、1218.39和1777.78 cm-3,山底的高CCN浓度（大于1000 cm-3）出现频率大于山腰和山顶,表明山底受周边污染源的影响较山顶和山腰大。山顶和山底的日变化曲线均为双峰型,两个峰值分别出现在午前和午后,与大气边界层高度及山谷风变化有关。利用公式N=CSk拟合了山顶在不同天气条件下CCN活化谱,并分析了其变化特征。结果显示,晴天、雨天和雾天的C值分别为2798、384、765,小于一些污染城市,属于清洁大陆型核谱。本文结果有助于改进对华东背景地区云凝结核时空分布的认识,为该地区云雾核化在数值模式中的表达提供观测依据和参数化方案。     

云降水物理与人工影响天气研究进展(2008～2012年)

本文回顾和总结了近5年(2008～2012年)云降水物理与人工影响天气主要研究进展,并讨论了目前存在的主要问题和亟待解决的关键科学问题.内容涉及可分辨云数值模式及模拟研究、云降水的观测与遥感反演研究、气溶胶对云降水的影响及人工影响天气相关的数值模式、观测试验研究等.提高对云降水形成过程、时空结构与演变机理的深入认识,对揭示大气水循环、气候变化过程,提高天气精细化预报、大气云水资源开发利用及气象防灾减灾的能力,具有十分重要的作用.     

山西云微物理特征的地面观测

利用连续气流纵向热梯度云凝结核仪和激光降水粒子谱测量仪对山西地面的云凝结核和雨滴谱进行了观测研究.研究结果表明,云凝结核(CCN)数浓度具有明显的日变化特征,1天出现了两次峰值,数浓度日变化与气象因子、人类活动有关.降水对CCN具有冲刷作用.利用关系式NCCN=CSk拟合得到的地面CCN活化谱参数C值明显较大,k值较高,属于典型的大陆型核谱.对层状云、层积云降水雨滴微物理特征参量分析发现:3次层状云、层积云降水雨滴数密度变化范围分别为74～229 m-3、305～743 m-3,平均含水量量级分别为10-2 g/m3、10-1g/m3,最大雨滴直径分别为1.78 mm、4.7 mm.对层状云降水雨滴的数密度和雨强贡献较大的分别是小于1 mm、0.2～2 mm的雨滴;对层积云降水雨滴的数密度和雨强贡献较大的分别是0.2～2 mm、1～3 mm的雨滴.层积云出现稳定谱的比例高于层状云.从瞬时谱型分布看,层状云出现单、双、三峰多,第四、五峰值的频率比较少,层积云雨滴谱分布没有出现指数型,常有多峰.从平均谱分布看,层状云谱宽窄于层积云,层状云雨滴平均谱服从指数分布,层积云曲线呈向下弯曲的趋势.对汾阳2008年7月17日一次积层混合云降水雨滴谱资料分析发现积层混合云降水雨滴微物理量起伏大,降水雨强主要由雨滴数密度决定.相同雨强下,若有相对更多的大雨滴,雷达反射率会更大一些.随着强回波云块的过境,雨滴数浓度、雨滴谱峰值个数、谱宽均明显增大.     

Kinematics, cloud microphysics and spatial structures of tropical cloud clusters: A two-dimensional cloud-resolving modeling study

Kinematics, cloud microphysics and spatial structures of tropical cloud clusters are investigated using hourly outputs from a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model simulation. The model is forced by the large-scale vertical velocity, zonal wind and horizontal advections obtained from Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE). A period of 1600–2300 LST 21 December 1992 is selected for this study when the zonal-mean westerly winds in the lower troposphere intensify while the zonal-mean easterly winds above weaken. Under the vertical-shear environment, there are a westward-propagating cloud cluster, a newly-formed cloud cluster, and four eastward-moving cloud clusters. Two weak eastward-moving cloud clusters merge into strong westward-moving cloud clusters. Merged clouds display notable growth in the eastern edge, indicating that merging processes enhance convection. The development of the new cloud at the western edge of the existing cloud cluster before merging may account for the westward propagation of cloud cluster group, while the advection of the maximum total hydrometeor mixing ratio by the westerly winds after merging may cause the eastward propagation of individual cloud clusters.     

冰雹云卫星早期识别与自动预警

利用陕西、山东、贵州和新疆等地近十年日间降雹记录和对应的极轨卫星数据,采用卫星云微物理反演技术,定量分析冰雹云微物理特征,比较不同地区间差异,并利用FY-4A静止卫星定量分析一次冰雹过程云微物理特征演变,探讨冰雹云卫星识别预警应用潜力。结果表明:（1）陕西、山东等地冰雹云微物理特征具有一致性,卫星早期识别指标为:晶化温度（T_g）较冷,均值为?33°C;全部冰晶化时T_g对应的云粒子有效半径r_e（表征为r_eg）未饱和（<40 μm）,均值36.9 μm,且r_eg 越小冰雹云越强;云顶呈现r_e随高度减小带。（2）各地冰雹云早期识别指标在数值上存在一定差异,实际应用时应针对各地进行相应调整。（3）在静止卫星上,冰雹云微物理特征与极轨卫星相一致,将早期识别指标应用于FY-4A静止卫星,跟踪云团发展演变,实现自动预警。（4）经过4次降雹过程中应用,FY-4A卫星自动预警与实况吻合22次,漏报2次,自动预警平均提前约2小时。FY-4A卫星自动预警对及时有效组织实施人工防雹作业具有重要现实意义。     

云辐射效应在华北持续性大雾维持和发展中的作用

观测研究发现华北地区的持续性大雾天气通常伴随高层云的存在,具有云-雾共存结构特征,为揭示云在持续性大雾维持和发展中的作用,利用中尺度数值模式WRF,结合华北雾霾观测试验期间的卫星、探空、地面观测、系留气艇、微波辐射计等观测资料,研究了2011年12月3—6日和2013年1月28—31日两次华北持续性大雾天气形成和发展演变过程。在模拟与观测对比检验研究的基础上,重点开展了云辐射效应在大雾维持和发展中作用的探讨。研究结果表明:两次大雾过程持续时间超过48 h,近地面具有偏南暖湿平流,在持续性大雾发展过程中,均出现了由单层雾发展为云-雾共存结构,一般是雾形成24 h以后有中高云移到雾层之上,云底高度在3 km以上,云厚超过3.5 km,云中以冰晶和雪晶为主。白天云-雾共存结构出现后,云-雾的反照率效应使地表接收的短波辐射减少71%—84%,地面增温效应显著减小,从而阻碍了大雾的消散过程,使大雾天气得以维持,同时由于云-雾产生的温室效应,湍流过程加强,使地面雾向上扩展,雾在稳定层内维持;夜晚云-雾共存时,由于云-雾温室效应使地表净长波辐射增大超过70 W/m2,导致地面长波辐射冷却过程减弱,并不利于雾的加强,但云对雾的增温效应有利于混合层内的湍流扩散过程,促使雾在更高的空间内得以维持。可见,在云-雾共存结构中,云辐射效应有利于低层大雾的长时间维持,对持续性大雾的形成和发展产生了重要作用。      

Use of Markov Random Fields for automatic cloud/shadow detection on high resolution optical images

In this study, we propose an automatic detection algorithm for cloud/shadow on remote sensing optical images. It is based on physical properties of clouds and shadows, namely for a cloud and its associated shadow: both are connex objects of similar shape and area, and they are related by their relative locations. We show that these properties can be formalized using Markov Random Field (MRF) framework at two levels: one MRF over the pixel graph for connexity modelling, and one MRF over the graph of objects (clouds and shadows) for their relationship modelling. Then, we show that, practically, having performed an image pre-processing step (channel inter-calibration) specific to cloud detection, the local optimization of the proposed MRF models leads to a rather simple image processing algorithm involving only six parameters. Using a 39 image database, performance is shown and discussed, in particular in comparison with the Marked Point Process approach.