云量的时间精细化预报研究-以榆中为例

利用2001年7月至2011年7月甘肃省榆中县地面测站的每日8次云量资料和同期NCEP每日4次等压面资料,由NCEP资料构造预报因子,以总云量和低云量为预报对象,分析预报因子和预报对象的相关性,采用逐步回归方法建立榆中县逐月8个时次的云量预报方程并进行回代;并利用2012年的资料检验预报方程的预报效果。结果表明：云量主要受整层湿度、垂直运动、不稳定能量、槽强度指数和700 hPa水汽通量散度影响,其中湿度状况和垂直运动是重要因素。建立的预报方程对总云量的预报效果比低云量好;总云量平均预报误差在2成左右,低云量平均预报误差在3成左右;预报值变化趋势可以部分地反映实际云量的变化趋势。     

A modelling study of aerosol processing by stratocumulus clouds and its impact on general circulation model parameterisations of cloud and aerosol

A model of the aqueous phase processing of an aerosol population undergoing multiple cycling through a stratocumulus (Sc) cloud layer is presented. Results indicate that a significant modification of the aerosol properties is achieved following the first cycle through cloud. In a polluted atmosphere, further modification in subsequent cycles is seen to be hydrogen peroxide limited unless there is a flux of ammonia entering the system through cloud base (CB). The modification of the aerosol population is seen to have little effect on the microphysics (specifically the cloud droplet concentration and effective radius) of the processing cloud. However, it enables processed aerosols to subsequently act as efficient cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) in less vigorous clouds (as a result of reducing the critical supersaturation required to activate them). The effects of variations in the internal mixture of soluble components of aerosols on the microphysics of clouds forming on them are also investigated using the cloud model. A (K2) parameterisation of the effects of variations in internally mixed nitrate loadings on the cloud droplet number concentration is presented. The effects of applying this K2 correction to the droplet number (derived from a parameterisation based on sulphate) for the presence of nitrate in aerosol have been investigated using the HadAM3 version of the Hadley Centre General Circulation Model (GCM). The effect on global annual mean simulations of the indirect forcing and effective radius is small, but more pronounced regionally. Suggestions (based on model results and observations) for parameterising the size distribution and in-cloud growth of aerosols for use in GCMs are presented.     

Correlation between clouds at different altitudes and solar activity: Fact or Artifact?

Studies of the relation between cosmic rays (CR) (solar activity) and atmospheric cloudiness are mostly based on the satellite ISCCP cloud data. However, doubts have been cast that these relations can be an artifact of instrumental effects, i.e., of the masking/obscuring low clouds by higher clouds in the satellite view. If this is the case, most of the earlier results based on ISCCP data would be devaluated. Here, we reanalyze the ISCCP cloud coverage data and its relation with the cosmic ray-induced ionization, and show that the correlation between low clouds and CR is affected by higher clouds in some geographical regions, but not everywhere. In turn, our results show that low clouds also may affect the relation of higher clouds with CR in some regions. Accordingly, correlation analysis can be performed only when the strong relation between clouds of different types is taken into account. In particular, studies based on global or latitudinal (zonally averaged) cloud data should be revised.     

Cloud to IDA: Efficient fragility assessment with limited scaling

Incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) leads to curves expressed in terms of structural response versus intensity, commonly known as the IDA curves. It is known that implementation of IDA usually involves significant computational effort and most often significant scaling of the original records to various intensity levels. Employing as the performance variable the critical demand to capacity ratio (DCR) throughout the structure, which is equal to unity at the onset of the limit state, facilitates the identification of the intensity values at the onset of a desired limit state and hence the implementation of the IDA procedure. Employing the structural response to un‐scaled records and the corresponding regression‐based response predictions (a.k.a., the “Cloud Analysis”) helps in identifying the range of intensity values corresponding to demand to capacity ratio values in the vicinity of unity. The Cloud to IDA procedure for structural fragility assessment is proposed on the premise of exploiting the Cloud Analysis results to obtain the IDA curves both with minimum number of analyses and minimum amount of scaling. The transverse frame of a shear‐critical 7‐story older RC building in Van Nuys, CA, which is modeled in Opensees with fiber‐section considering the flexural‐shear‐axial interactions and the bar slip, is employed as a case study. It is demonstrated, by comparing the results to IDA and other state of the art non‐linear dynamic procedures based on no scaling or spectral‐shape‐compatible scaling, that the Cloud to IDA procedure leads to reliable results in terms of structural fragility and risk for the prescribed limit state.     

基于云计算的九分量噪声互相关函数计算及其在China Array密集台阵数据的应用

提出一种基于云计算的九分量噪声互相关函数的计算方法,可以利用弹性的云计算服务,实现海量噪声互相关函数计算的分解和加速。本文将此技术应用于"中国地震科学台阵探测——南北地震带北段"674个宽频带台站2014~2015年的三分量连续记录,获取了所有台站间的九分量噪声互相关函数。总体计算共完成了约22万条台站对路径上近14.9亿条单天互相关函数的计算,整体平均耗时约为10.2h,完成等量计算,传统计算模式需要耗时近6个月,基于云计算的NCF计算技术实现了近400倍的加速,并可以弹性地扩充。分析了所得九分量噪声互相关函数中瑞利面波的ZH振幅比,并与天然地震中瑞利面波的振幅比进行了比较,验证了计算结果的可靠性。基于云计算的噪声互相关函数计算方法,为利用现代计算技术处理海量数据提供了重要参考。     

Monitoring the impact of aerosol contamination on the drought-induced decline of gross primary productivity

Southwestern China experienced a period of severe drought from September 2009 to May 2010. It led to widespread decline in the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and gross primary productivity (GPP) in the springtime of 2010 (March to May). However, this study observed a spatial inconsistency between drought-impacted vegetation decline and the precipitation deficit. Significant aerosol loads that correspond to inconsistent areas were also observed during the drought period. After analyzing both MODIS GPP/NPP Collection 5 (C5) and the newer Collection 5.5 (C55) data, a large area observed to be experiencing GPP decline in the eastern part of the study area proved to be unreliable. Based on EVI data, after atmospherically contaminated data were screened from analysis, approximately 20% of the study area exhibited browning whereas 33% displayed no change or greening and the remaining area (approximately 47%) lacked sufficient data to document changing conditions. Correlation analysis showed that fire occurrences, aerosol optical depth, and precipitation anomalies during the two drought periods (from September to February and from March to May) all contributed to a decrease in GPP. C55 data remains vulnerable to aerosol contamination due to a much higher correlation coefficient with aerosol optical depth compared to C5 data. In the future, users of remotely sensed data should be cautious of and take into account impacts related to atmospheric contamination, even during drought periods.     

MODIS影像合成算法研究和实现

在探讨遥感影像合成算法的基础上,采用热红外云检测CV-MVC算法对MODIS影像进行合成,改进了影响合成效果的阈值因子。结果表明,该合成算法在不同尺度区域的影像合成中均取得了较好的效果。     

A cloud mask methodology for high resolution remote sensing data combining information from high and medium resolution optical sensors

This study presents a novel cloud masking approach for high resolution remote sensing images in the context of land cover mapping. As an advantage to traditional methods, the approach does not rely on thermal bands and it is applicable to images from most high resolution earth observation remote sensing sensors. The methodology couples pixel-based seed identification and object-based region growing. The seed identification stage relies on pixel value comparison between high resolution images and cloud free composites at lower spatial resolution from almost simultaneously acquired dates. The methodology was tested taking SPOT4-HRVIR, SPOT5-HRG and IRS-LISS III as high resolution images and cloud free MODIS composites as reference images. The selected scenes included a wide range of cloud types and surface features. The resulting cloud masks were evaluated through visual comparison. They were also compared with ad-hoc independently generated cloud masks and with the automatic cloud cover assessment algorithm (ACCA). In general the results showed an agreement in detected clouds higher than 95% for clouds larger than 50 ha. The approach produced consistent results identifying and mapping clouds of different type and size over various land surfaces including natural vegetation, agriculture land, built-up areas, water bodies and snow.     

建立在数值预报系统上的航空气象要素预报试验

文章介绍了建立在数值预报基础上的航空气象要素（颠簸、积冰和云等）预报技术，给出了预报颠簸强度的晴空湍流指数和预报积冰的积冰强度和积冰严重性指数，并利用预报模式进行了模式成云预报和云区诊断分析，给出了一些具体的模拟及预报试验结果。     

Observations of condensation growth determined by entity type mixing

It has been speculated for many years that the development of the droplet spectra in cloud is probably influenced by mixing processes. Various theoretical attempts to broaden the droplet spectra by mixing parcels with different velocity histories has shown that that particular effect is small. Similarly, very simpleuniform entrainment procedures did not lead to cloud drop size spectra which were broad enough, although by producing cloud drop size distributions with a double mode these models did substantially improve the drop size spectra of earlier adiabatic models which only exhibited a single mode.Recently a model based on entraining entities representing moving parcels of cloud air within the cloud was detailed byTelford andChai (1980). This study showed that the mixing in of dry air at cumulus turrets could lead to vertical cycling of diluted parcels, and that this cycling, with continual entrainment across the parcel boundaries, will produce much larger drops, as well as smaller drops of all sizes, in the droplet spectra. The entity entrainment concept studied there appears to apply to the observations of stratus cloud discussed in this paper.This paper presents data taken in marine stratus off the California coast which give a particularly clear example of how such droplet spectra modification occurs in practice. Both large drops, and the spread of the spectra to smaller sizes, occur in relation to other variables in such a way as to be consistent with an entity entrainment explanation, with no other obvious possibility.In a marine stratus cloud just over 200 m thick and many tens of miles in extent we find clear evidence that dry air is mixing in at cloud tops. Strong vertical motion is to be found in the cloud, large sized drops are found in cloud parcels where the mixing gives lower droplet concentrations, and there is evidence that newly formed cloud parcels are warmer and contain many more smaller droplets.The observations show that immediately following entrainment of dry air drop diameters are not reduced appreciably, but, in the same parcels, drop concentrations have been reduced by a factor of ten or more. Further down in the cloud big drops, able to start growth by coalescence, are found associated with low total droplet concentrations.Overall, it seems likely from the consideration of these observations that the formation of the large drops which lead to precipitation processes in clouds depends critically on the mixing in of dry air at cloud tops, and very little on the size of the small drops resulting from the condensation nucleus counts. As a conclusion it appears reasonable to state that if entrainment occurs at cloud tops, then big drops will be formed!