Methodology for preliminary assessment of Natech risk in urban areas

Concern for natural hazard-triggered technological disasters (Natech disasters) in densely populated and industrialized areas is growing. Residents living in urban areas subject to high natural hazard risk are often unaware of the potential for secondary disasters such as hazardous materials releases from neighboring industrial facilities, chemical storage warehouses or other establishments housing hazardous materials. Lessons from previous disasters, such as the Natech disaster during the Kocaeli earthquake in Turkey in 1999 call for the need to manage low frequency/high consequence events, particularly in today’s densely populated areas. However, there is little guidance available on how local governments and communities can assess Natech risk. To add to the problem, local governments often do not have the human or economic resources or expertise to carry out detailed risk assessments. In this article, we propose a methodology for preliminary assessment of Natech risk in urban areas. The proposed methodology is intended for use by local government officials in consultation with the public. The methodology considers possible interactions between the various systems in the urban environment: the physical infrastructure (e.g., industrial plants, lifeline systems, critical facilities), the community (e.g., population exposed), the natural environment (e.g., delicate ecosystems, river basins), and the risk and emergency management systems (e.g., structural and nonstructural measures). Factors related to vulnerability and hazard are analyzed and qualitative measures are recommended. Data from hazardous materials releases during the Kocaeli, Turkey earthquake of August 17, 1999 are used as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the methodology. Limitations of the proposed methodology are discussed as well as future research needs.

Detection of free vertical convection and double-diffusion in groundwater monitoring wells with geophysical borehole measurements

Two algorithms for in-situ detection and identification of vertical free convective and double-diffusive flows in groundwater monitoring wells or boreholes are proposed. With one algorithm the causes (driving forces) and with the other one the effects (convection or double-diffusion) of vertical transport processes can be detected based on geophysical borehole measurements in the water column. Five density-driven flow processes are identified: thermal, solutal, and thermosolutal convection leading to an equalization, as well as saltfingers and diffusive layering leading to an intensification of a vertical density gradient. The occurrence of density-driven transport processes could be proven in many groundwater monitoring wells and boreholes; especially shallow sections of boreholes or groundwater monitoring wells are affected dramatically by such vertical flows. Deep sections are also impaired as the critical threshold for the onset of a density-driven flow is considerably low. In monitoring wells or boreholes, several sections with different types of density-driven vertical flows may exist at the same time. Results from experimental investigations in a medium-scale testing facility with high aspect ratio (height/radius = 19) and from numerical modeling of a water column agree well with paramters of in-situ detected convection cells.     

Numerical Experiment on Two-Dimensional Line Thermal

The time evolution of a two-dimensional line thermal-a turbulent flow produced by an initial element with signifi-cant buoyancy released in a large water body, is numerically studied with the two-equation k - e model for turbulence closure. The numerical results show that the thermal is characterized by a vortex pair flow and a kidney shaped concentra-tion structure with double peak maxima; the computed flow details and scalar mixing characteristics can be described by self-similar relations beyond a dimensionless time around 10. There are two regions in the flow field of a line thermal: a mixing region where the concentration of tracer fluid is high and the flow is turbulent and rotational with a pair of vortex eyes, and an ambient region where the concentration is zero and the flow is potential and well-described by a model of doublet with strength very close to those given by early experimental and analytical studies. The added virtual mass coeffi-cient of the thermal motion is found to be approximat     

Numerical Solution of Lock-Release Gravity Current with Viscous Self-Similar Regime

Lock-release gravity currents with a viscous self-similar regime are simulated by use of the renormalization group(RNG) k - ε model for Reynolds-stress closure. Besides the turbulent regime with initially a slumping phase of a conslant current front speed and later an inviseid self-similar phase of front speed decreasing as t^-1/3(where t is the time measured from release), the viseous self-similar regime is satisfactorily reproduced with front speed decreasing as t^-4/5,consistent with well known experimental observations.     

Simulating a heavy metal spill under estuarine conditions: Effects on the clam Scrobicularia plana

We describe the effect of heavy metals Zn, Cd, Pb and Cu on the induction of methallothioneins on the clam Scrobicularia plana along a salinity gradient simulated under laboratory conditions. The clams were exposed to constant heavy metal concentrations in a dynamic estuary simulator during a 15-day assay to investigate possible induction of metal-binding proteins in them. The concentration of heavy metals in water was analysed. Clams were analysed for methallothionein concentrations. The speciation of Zn, Cd, Pb and Cu along the salinity gradient was modelled. Zn showed the highest concentrations and its prevalent species was the free ion. Intersite differences have been observed in methallothionein concentration and related to the salinity gradient. It seems that synthesis of methallothioneins is the result of physiological forces acting in concert with the changes in the chemical speciation of metals, owing to the trace metals uptake is controlled by means of an interaction of physiology and physicochemistry.     

Modeling of Multi-Freedom Ship Motions in Irregular Waves with Fuzzy Neural Networks

1 .IntroductionAshiptravelingatseaundergoesundesirablewave inducedmotions ,namely ,surge ,sway ,heav ing ,rolling ,pitchingandyaw .Thesemotionsoftencauseproblemstothecrew ,theonboardequip mentand ,intheworstcase ,thesafetyofthevessel.Tominimizethewave inducedshipmotions ,controlsystemsmaybeapplied .Theaccuratemodelingofshipmotionsisthereforeveryimportantforshipdesignanddesignofmotioncontrolsystems .Manyresearchershavedevelopedshipmotionpredictionmethodsbasedonthepotentialflowtheo ries (Dong ,…     

大窑湾海域水化要素分布及相关关系的探讨

本文依据大窑湾的环境调查资料为基础，系统地阐述了水体中化学要素ｐＨ、盐度、透明度、ＤＯ、ＣＯＤ、ＴＯＣ、浊度、悬浮物、ＮＨ４－Ｎ、ＮＯ２－Ｎ、ＮＯ３－Ｎ、ＰＯ４－Ｐ、ＳｉＯ３－Ｓｉ、Ｃｕ、Ｐｂ、Ｚｎ、Ｃｄ、Ａｓ、Ｈｇ、Ｃｒ、硫化物、六六六、石油等分布规律。诸要素主要是在潮流水动力支配下，形成扩散带。各要素中仅有无机氮和ＰＯ４－Ｐ两项含量超标，其余要素含量范围都是处于海水正常浓度水平，属于一类海水水质。文章并对各要素进行相关关系分析。     

藻体海水培养液中铜的化学存在形式

采用金属络合物通式模型,在IBM-PC计算机上计算了不同pH(7.5～9.5)、碱度(2.3～2.5mmol dm~(-3))和加入不同浓度的铜离子(1.0×10~(-4)～1.0mg dm~(-3))条件下,海水培养液中铜的主要化学存在形式分配的百分数。还给出了计算机程序框图和主要化学存在形式含量的百分数随pH、碱度和铜浓度变化图。     

Effects of chemical ecological adjustment and control experiment on phytoplankton community in the Aoshan Bay

There is a low nutrient level in the Aoshan Bay. In June 1999, the chemical adjustmentand control experiment was made in the Aoshan Bay. Following tracts investigation was carried out before the experiment and on the 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 45th day/after the experiment. While the variance of amount of phytoplankton, the replacement of superior species and the species composition of phytoplankton were researched. The results show that the amount of phytoplankton in the Aoshan Bay rises gradually after the experiment. Ceratium macroceros Cleve of pyrophyta was the dominant species before the experiment, its dominant index was 37.7％. Six days after the experiment, its dominant index dropped to 17.6％ . Meanwhile the dominant index of Asterionella japanics Cleve rose from 7.1％ to 39.2％ , it became the first dominant species. Forty-five days after the experiment, the amount of phytoplankton in the Aoshan Bay was 5.15 to 137.32 times more than that in 1997.     

The impact of the M2 internal tide on data-assimilative model estimates of the surface tide

We use a synthetic data experiment to assess the accuracy of ocean tides estimated from satellite altimetry data, with emphasis on the impact of the phase-locked internal tide, which has a surface expression of several centimeters near its sites of genesis. Previous tidal estimates have regarded this signal as a random measurement error; however, it is deterministic and not scale-separated from the barotropic (surface) tide around complex bathymetric features. The synthetic data experiments show that the internal tide has a negligible impact on the barotropic tidal fields inferred under these circumstances, and the barotropic dissipation (a quadratic functional of the tidal fields) is in good agreement with the energetics of the three-dimensional regional primitive equations model which is the source of the synthetic data.