海底输油管道底砂床冲刷机理研究

设计了海底输油管道水槽冲刷试验模型,研究了海底输油管道与砂床处于不同相对位置情况下床砂起动流速的变化,采用理想流体映射定理对其进行了理论分析,探讨起动流速变化规律。结合有限元数值模拟对试验进行细化分析,研究了海底管道底砂床砂粒起动的产生机理,根据研究结果将冲刷过程划分为五个阶段。阐明了海底管道暴露冲刷的危害性和实时监测的重要性。     

综合多信息进行地震约束储层随机建模——以准噶尔盆地庄1井区J1S2^2砂组为例

针对地震约束储层随机建模中地震反演波阻抗数据体与岩相概率关系差的问题,提出综合多信息、逐级约束、多级建模的思路方法。首先以地震反演数据体约束建立地球物理特征曲线随机参数场,再以每一个地球物理特征曲线参数场为约束建立相模型,最后以优选的相模型和地球物理特征曲线参数场为约束进行储层参数建模。该方法在井距较大的开发前期评价阶段具有较好的应用效果。     

1997–1998 El Niño off Peru: A numerical study

An eddy-resolving numerical simulation for the Peru–Chile system between 1993 and 2000 is analyzed, mainly for the 1997–1998 El Niño. Atmospheric and lateral oceanic forcings are realistic and contain a wide range of scales from days to interannual. The solution is validated against altimetric observations and the few in situ observations available. The simulated 1997–1998 El Niño closely resembles the real 1997–1998 El Niño in its time sequence of events. The two well-marked, sea-level peaks in May–June and November–December 1997 are reproduced with amplitudes close to those observed. Other sub-periods of the El Niño seem to be captured adequately. Simple dynamical analyses are performed to explain the 1997–1998 evolution of the upwelling in the model. The intensity of the upwelling appears to be determined by an interplay between alongshore, poleward advection (related to coastal trapped waves) and wind intensity, but also by the cross-shore geostrophic flow and distribution of the water masses on a scale of 1000 km or more (involving Rossby waves westward propagation and advection from equatorial currents). In particular, the delay of upwelling recovery until fall 1998 (i.e., well after the second El Niño peak) is partly due to the persistent advection of offshore stratified water toward the coast of Peru. Altimetry data suggest that these interpretations of the numerical solution also apply to the real ocean.     

Formation and stability of mixed Mg/Ca/phytate species in synthetic seawater media: Consequences on ligand speciation

The results of a potentiometric investigation (by ISE-H⁺, glass electrode) on the speciation of phytate ion (Phy¹²⁻) in an ionic medium simulating the major components (Na⁺, K⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Cl⁻ and SO₄²⁻) of natural seawater, at different salinities and t = 25 °C, are reported. The work was particularly aimed at determining the possible formation of mixed Ca²⁺–Mg²⁺–phytate ion pairs, and to establish how including the formation of these mixed species would affect the speciation modeling in seawater media. After testing various speciation models, that considering the formation of the MgCaH₃Phy⁵⁻, MgCaH₄Phy⁴⁻, Mg₂CaH₃Phy³⁻ and Mg₂CaH₄Phy²⁻ species was accepted, and corresponding stability constants were determined at two salinities (S = 5, 10). A discussion is reported both on the choice of the experimental conditions and on the possibility to extend these results to those typical of real seawater. A detailed procedure is also described to demonstrate that the stability of these species is higher than that statistically predicted. As reported in literature, a parameter, namely log X, has been determined in order to quantify this extra stability for the formation of each mixed species at various salinities. For example, at S = 10, log X₁₁₃ = 2.67 and log X₁₁₄ = 1.37 for MgCaH₃Phy⁵⁻ and MgCaH₄Phy⁴⁻ (statistical value is log X_stat = 0.60), and log X₂₁₃ = 6.11 and log X₂₁₄ = 2.15 for Mg₂CaH₃Phy³⁻ and Mg₂CaH₄Phy²⁻ (log X_stat = 1.43), respectively. Results obtained also showed that the formation of these species may occur even in conditions of low salinity (i.e. low concentration of alkaline earth cations) and low pH (i.e., more protonated ligand).     

海洋生态系统净生产力研究进展

海洋生态系统净生产力 （net ecosystem production,NEP） 表示总初级生产力 （gross primary production,GPP） 和呼吸作用 （respiration,R） 过程之间的差异,它对碳收支平衡、海洋生态系统营养状态乃至气候变化等研究具有十分重要的指示意义。影响海洋 NEP 的因素有细菌、浮游生物、温度、太阳辐射、海冰融化、水团迁移、富营养有机质排放以及海水酸化等。目前计算 NEP 的方法可分为实验培养测定及数据模型计算两种。溶解氧培养法及同位素标记法等是经典的培养测定方法,但存在误差较大且重现性较差等问题。数据模型计算即借助养分质量平衡、响应面模型、O2/Ar 示踪等方法,通过将现场实测数据和生物地球化学模型结合,进行高时间分辨率的连续性观测,这也是目前测算 NEP 的主流应用手段。然而,相较于发达国家,我国在 NEP 的研究设备、技术、测定方法等方面仍存在一定差距。今后的研究重点将是建立 NEP 指标与表征海洋环境、气候变化之间的耦合关系以及 NEP 测定方法的改进,这将有助于深入理解和探索全球变化背景下海洋生态系统响应机制及变化趋势。     

Biogeographic assessments: A framework for information synthesis in marine spatial planning

This paper presents the Biogeographic Assessment Framework (BAF), a decision support process for marine spatial planning (MSP), developed through two decades of close collaborations between scientists and marine managers. Spatial planning is a considerable challenge for marine stewardship agencies because of the need to synthesize information on complex socio-ecological patterns across geographically broad spatial scales. This challenge is compounded by relatively short time-frames for implementation and limited financial and technological resources. To address this pragmatically, BAF provides a rapid, flexible and multi-disciplinary approach to integrate geospatial information into formats and visualization tools readily useable for spatial planning. Central to BAF is four sequential components: (1) Planning; (2) Data Evaluation; (3) Ecosystem Characterization; and (4) Management Applications. The framework has been applied to support the development of several marine spatial plans in the United States and Territories. This paper describes the structure of the BAF framework and the associated analytical techniques. Two management applications are provided to demonstrate the utility of BAF in supporting decision making in MSP.     

Ocean current estimation using a Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter during the Grand Lagrangian Deployment experiment (GLAD)

In the summer and fall of 2012, during the GLAD experiment in the Gulf of Mexico, the Consortium for Advanced Research on Transport of Hydrocarbon in the Environment (CARTHE) used several ocean models to assist the deployment of more than 300 surface drifters. The Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) at 1 km and 3 km resolutions, the US Navy operational NCOM at 3 km resolution (AMSEAS), and two versions of the Hybrid Coordinates Ocean Model (HYCOM) set at 4 km were running daily and delivering 72-h range forecasts. They all assimilated remote sensing and local profile data but they were not assimilating the drifter’s observations. This work presents a non-intrusive methodology named Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter that allows assimilating the local drifter data into such a set of models, to produce improved ocean currents forecasts. The filter is to be used when several modeling systems or ensembles are available and/or observations are not entirely handled by the operational data assimilation process. It allows using generic in situ measurements over short time windows to improve the predictability of local ocean dynamics and associated high-resolution parameters of interest for which a forward model exists (e.g. oil spill plumes). Results can be used for operational applications or to derive enhanced background fields for other data assimilation systems, thus providing an expedite method to non-intrusively assimilate local observations of variables with complex operators. Results for the GLAD experiment show the method can improve water velocity predictions along the observed drifter trajectories, hence enhancing the skills of the models to predict individual trajectories.     

Investigation of drag crisis phenomenon using CFD methods

When fluid flow passes a cylinder, the drag crisis phenomenon occurs between the sub-critical and the super-critical Reynolds numbers. The focus of the present studies was on the numerical prediction of the drag crisis based on CFD methods. In this work, block structured meshes with refined grids near the cylinder surface and in the downstream were employed. Both 2D and 3D simulations were performed using various turbulence models, including the SST k − ω model, the k − ϵ model, the SST with LCTM, the DES model, and the LES model. In the convergence studies, the effects of the grid size, the time step, the first grid size and the aspect ratio (for 3D simulations) on the solutions were examined. The errors due to spatial and time discretizations were quantified according to a V&V procedure. Validation studies were carried out for various Reynolds numbers between Re = 6.31 × 10⁴ and 7.57 × 10⁵. The averaged drag force, the RMS of lift force and the Strouhal number were compared with experimental data. The studies indicated that standard 2D and 3D RANS methods were inadequate to capture the drag crisis phenomenon. The LES method however has the potential to address the problem.     

Basin modeling of the Late Miocene Zeit source rock in the Sudanese portion of Red Sea Basin: Implication for hydrocarbon generation and expulsion history

The Late Miocene Zeit Formation is exposed in the Red Sea Basin of Sudan and represents an important oil-source rock. In this study, five (5) exploratory wells along Red Sea Basin of Sudan are used to model the petroleum generation and expulsion history of the Zeit Formation. Burial/thermal models illustrate that the Red Sea is an extensional rift basin and initially developed during the Late Eocene to Oligocene. Heat flow models show that the present-day heat flow values in the area are between 60 and 109 mW/m². The variation in values of the heat flow can be linked to the raise in the geothermal gradient from margins of the basin towards offshore basin. The offshore basin is an axial area with thick burial depth, which is the principal heat flow source.The paleo-heat flow values of the basin are approximately from 95 to 260 mW/m², increased from Oligocene to Early Pliocene and then decreased exponentially prior to Late Pliocene. This high paleo-heat flow had a considerable effect on the source rock maturation and cooking of the organic matter. The maturity history models indicate that the Zeit Formation source rock passed the late oil-window and converted the oil generated to gas during the Late Miocene.The basin models also indicate that the petroleum was expelled from the Zeit source rock during the Late Miocene (>7 Ma) and it continues to present-day, with transformation ratio of more than 50%. Therefore, the Zeit Formation acts as an effective source rock where significant amounts of petroleum are expected to be generated in the Red Sea Basin.