Prediction Research of Climate Change Trends over North China in the Future 30 Years

A simulation of climate change trends over North China in the past 50 years and future 30 years was performed with the actual greenhouse gas concentration and IPCC SRES B2 scenario concentration by IAP/LASG GOALS 4.0 （Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land system coupled model）, developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics （LASG）, Institute of Atmospheric Physics （IAP）, Chinese Academy of Sciences （CAS）. In order to validate the model, the modern climate during 1951-2000 was first simulated by the GOALS model with the actual greenhouse gas concentration, and the simulation results were compared with observed data. The simulation results basically reproduce the lower temperature from the 1960s to mid-1970s and the warming from the 1980s for the globe and Northern Hemisphere, and better the important cold （1950 1976） and warm （1977-2000） periods in the past 50 years over North China. The correlation coefficient is 0.34 between simulations and observations （significant at a more than 0.05 confidence level）. The range of winter temperature departures for North China is between those for the eastern and western China＇s Mainland. Meanwhile, the summer precipitation trend turning around the 1980s is also successfully simulated. The climate change trends in the future 30 years were simulated with the CO2 concentration under IPCC SRES-B2 emission scenario. The results show that, in the future 30 years, winter temperature will keep a warming trend in North China and increase by about 2.5~C relative to climate mean （1960-1990）. Meanwhile, summer precipitation will obviously increase in North China and decrease in South China, displaying a south-deficit-north-excessive pattern of precipitation.     

A Comparison Study of the Contributions of Additional Observations in the Sensitive Regions Identified by CNOP and FSV to Reducing Forecast Error Variance for the Typhoon Morakot

The sensitive regions of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) and the first singular vector (FSV) for a northwest Pacific typhoon case are reported in this paper. A large number of probes have been designed in the above regions and the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) techniques are utilized to examine which approach can locate more appropriate regions for typhoon adaptive observations. The results show that, in general, the majority of the probes in the sensitive regions of CNOPs can reduce more forecast error variance than the probes in the sensitive regions of FSV. This implies that adaptive observations in the sensitive regions of CNOPs are more effective than in the sensitive regions of FSV. Furthermore, the reduction of the forecast error variance obtained by the best probe identified by CNOPs is twice the reduction of the forecast error variance obtained by FSV. This implies that dropping sondes, which is the best probe identified by CNOPs, can improve the forecast more than the best probe identified by FSV. These results indicate that the sensitive regions identified by CNOPs are more appropriate for adaptive observations than those identified by FSV.     

A Re-examination of Density Effects in Eddy Covariance Measurements of CO2 Fluxes

Corrections of density effects resulting from air-parcel expansion/compression are important in interpreting eddy covariance fluxes of water vapor and CO2 when open-path systems are used. To account for these effects, mean vertical velocity and perturbation of the density of dry air are two critical parameters in treating those physical processes responsible for density variations. Based on various underlying assumptions, different studies have obtained different formulas for the mean vertical velocity and perturbation of the density of dry air, leading to a number of approaches to correct density effects. In this study, we re-examine physical processes related to different assumptions that are made to formulate the density effects. Specifically, we re-examine the assumptions of a zero dry air flux and a zero moist air flux in the surface layer, used for treating density variations, and their implications for correcting density effects. It is found that physical processes in relation to the assumption of a zero dry air flux account for the influence of dry air expansion/compression on density variations. Meanwhile, physical processes in relation to the assumption of a zero moist air flux account for the influence of moist air expansion/compression on density variations. In this study, we also re-examine mixing ratio issues. Our results indicate that the assumption of a zero dry air flux favors the use of the mixing ratio relative to dry air, while the assumption of a zero moist air flux favors the use of the mixing ratio relative to the total moist air. Additionally, we compare different formula for the mean vertical velocity, generated by air-parcel expansion/compression, and for density effect corrections using eddy covariance data measured over three boreal ecosystems.     

Classification of BeppoSAX’s gamma-ray bursts

The BeppoSAX Catalog has been very recently published. In this paper we analyze—using the Maximum Likelihood (ML) method—the duration distribution of the 1003 GRBs listed in the catalog with duration. The ML method can identify the long and the intermediate duration groups. The short population of the bursts is identified only at a 96% significance level. MC simulation has been also applied and gives a similar significance level; 95%. However, the existence of the short bursts is not a scientific question after the Compton Gamma-Ray Observatory’s observation. Our minor result is this well-known fact that in the BeppoSAX data the short bursts are under-represented, mainly caused by the different triggering system. Our major result is the identification of the intermediate group in the BeppoSAX data. Therefore, four different satellites (CGRO, Swift, RHESSI and BeppoSAX) observed the intermediate type Gamma-Ray Burst.     

Atomic oxygen distribution in the Venus mesosphere from observations of O2 infrared airglow by VIRTIS-Venus Express

This VIRTIS instrument on board Venus Express has collected spectrally resolved images of the Venus nightside limb that show the presence of the (0,0) band of the infrared atmospheric system of O₂ at 1.27 μm. The emission is produced by three-body recombination of oxygen atoms created by photodissociation of CO₂ on the dayside. It is consistently bright so that emission limb profiles can be extracted from the images. The vertical distribution of O₂() may be derived following Abel inversion of the radiance limb profiles. Assuming photochemical equilibrium, it is combined with the CO₂ vertical distribution to determine the atomic oxygen density. The uncertainties on the O density caused by the Abel inversion reach a few percent at the peak, increasing to about 50% near 120 km. We first analyze a case when the CO₂ density was derived from a stellar occultation observed with the SPICAV spectrometer simultaneously with an image of the O₂ limb airglow. In other cases, an average CO₂ profile deduced from a series of ultraviolet stellar occultations is used to derive the O profile, leading to uncertainties on the O density less than 30%. It is found that the maximum O density is generally located between 94 and 115 km with a mean value of 104 km. It ranges from less than 1×¹⁰¹¹ to about 5×¹⁰¹¹ cm⁻³ with a global mean of 2.2×¹⁰¹¹ cm⁻³. These values are in reasonable agreement with the VIRA midnight oxygen profile. The vertical O distribution is generally in good agreement with the oxygen profile calculated with a one-dimensional chemical-diffusive model. No statistical latitudinal dependence of the altitude of the oxygen peak is observed, but the maximum O density tends to decrease with increasing northern latitudes. The latitudinal distribution at a given time exhibits large variations in the O density profile and its vertical structure. The vertical oxygen distribution frequently shows multiple peaks possibly caused by waves or variations in the structure of turbulent transport. It is concluded that the O₂ infrared night airglow is a powerful tool to map the distribution of atomic oxygen in the mesosphere between 90 and 115 km and improve future Venus reference atmosphere models.     

Titan at 3 microns: Newly identified spectral features and an improved analysis of haze opacity

We have reanalyzed the high-resolution spectrum of Titan between 2.87 and 3.12 μm observed with NIRSPEC/Keck II on 2001 Nov. 21 in southern summer, using updated CH₃D and C₂H₆ line-by-line models. From new synthetic spectra, we identify all but a few of the previously unidentified significant absorption spectral features in this wavelength range as due to these two species, both of which had been previously detected by Voyager and ground-based observations at other wavelengths. We also derive opacities and reflectivities of haze particles as functions of altitude for the 2.87-2.92 μm wavelength range, where Titan's atmosphere is partially transparent down to the surface. The extinction per unit altitude is observed to increase from 100 km (∼8 mbar) toward lower altitude. The derived total optical depth is approximately 1.1 for the 2.87-2.92 μm range. At wavelengths increasing beyond 2.92 μm the haze layers become much more optically thick, and the surface is rapidly hidden from view. These conclusions apply to equatorial and southern-temperate regions on Titan, excluding polar regions. We also find it unlikely that there is a large enhancement of the tropospheric CH₄ mole fraction over the value reported from analysis of the Huygens/GCMS observations.     

Analysis and interpretation of Cassini Titan radar altimeter echoes

The Cassini spacecraft has acquired 25 radar altimeter elevation profiles along Titan's surface as of April 2008, and we have analyzed 18 of these for which there are currently reconstructed ephemeris data. Altimeter measurements were collected at spatial footprint sizes from 6-60 km along ground tracks of length 400-3600 km. The elevation profiles yield topographic information at this resolution with a statistical height accuracy of 35-50 m and kilometer-scale errors several times greater. The data exhibit significant variations in terrain, from flat regions with little topographic expression to very rugged Titanscapes. The bandwidth of the transmitted waveform admits vertical resolution of the terrain height to 35 m at each observed location on the surface. Variations in antenna pointing and changes in surface statistics cause the range-compressed radar echoes to exhibit strong systematic and time-variable biases of hundreds of meters in delay. It is necessary to correct the received echoes for these changes, and we have derived correction algorithms such that the derived echo profiles are accurate at the 100 m level for off-nadir pointing errors of 0.3° and 0.6°, for leading edge and echo centroid estimators, respectively. The leading edge of the echo yields the elevation of the highest points on the surface, which we take to be the peaks of any terrain variation. The mean value of the echo delay is more representative of the mean elevation, so that the difference of these values gives an estimate of any local mountain heights. Finding locations where these values diverge indicates higher-relief terrain. Elevation features are readily seen in the height profiles. Several of the passes show mountains of several hundred m altitude, spread over 10's or even 100's of km in spatial extent, so that slopes are very small. Large expanses of sub-100 m topography are commonplace on Titan, so it is rather smooth in many locations. Other areas exhibit more relief, although the overall observed variation in surface height on any pass is less than about 1 km. Some elevation features correspond to observed changes in brightness in Cassini infrared images, but many do not. Correspondence between the imaging SAR ground tracks and the altimeter paths is limited, so that identifying elevation changes with higher resolution SAR features is premature at present.     

Titan's surface at 2.2-cm wavelength imaged by the Cassini RADAR radiometer: Calibration and first results

The first comprehensive calibration and mapping of the thermal microwave emission from Titan's surface is reported based on radiometric data obtained at 2.2-cm wavelength by the passive radiometer included in the Cassini Radar instrument. The data reported were accumulated from 69 separate observational segments in Titan passes from Ta (October 2004) through T30 (May 2007) and include emission from 94% of Titan's surface. They are diverse in the key observing parameters of emission angle, polarization, and spatial resolution, and their reduction into calibrated global mosaic maps involved several steps. Analysis of the polarimetry obtained at low to moderate resolution (50+ km) enabled integration of the radiometry into a single mosaic of the equivalent brightness temperature at normal incidence with a relative precision of about 1 K. The Huygens probe measurement of Titan's surface temperature and radiometry obtained on Titan's dune fields allowed us to infer an absolute calibration estimated to be accurate to a level approaching 1 K. The results provide evidence for a surface that is complex and varied on large scales. The radiometry primarily constrains physical properties of the surface, where we see strong evidence for subsurface (volume) scattering as a dominant mechanism that determines the emissivity, with the possibility of a fluffy or graded-density surface layer in many regions. The results are consistent with, but not necessarily definitive of a surface composition resulting from the slow deposition and processing of organic compounds from the atmosphere.     

Io's dayside SO2 atmosphere

An extensive set of HI Lyman-α images obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS) from 1997-2001 has been analyzed to provide information about the spatial and temporal character of Io's SO₂ atmosphere. An atmospheric distribution map derived from the observations reveals that the sunlit SO₂ atmosphere is temporally stable on a global scale, with only small local changes. An anti-/sub-jovian asymmetry in the SO₂ distribution is present in all 5 years of the observations. The average daytime atmosphere is densest on the anti-jovian hemisphere in the equatorial regions, with a maximum equatorial column density of 5.0×¹⁰¹⁶ cm−2 at 140° longitude. The SO₂ atmosphere also has greater latitudinal extent on the anti-jovian hemisphere as compared to the sub-jovian. The atmospheric distribution appears to be best correlated with the location of hot spots and known volcanic plumes, although small number statistics for the plumes limits the correlation.     

Jupiter's hydrocarbon polar brightening: Discovery of 3-micron line emission from south polar CH4, C2H2, and C2H6

Jupiter exhibits bright H⁺₃ auroral arcs at 3-4 microns that cool the hot (>1000 K) ionosphere above the ∼¹⁰−7 bar level through the infrared bands of this trace constituent. Below the ¹⁰−7 bar level significant cooling proceeds through infrared active bands of CH₄, C₂H₂, and C₂H₆. We report the discovery of 3-micron line emission from these hydrocarbon species in spectra of the jovian south polar region obtained on April 18 and 20, 2006 (UT) with CGS4 on the United Kingdom Infrared Telescope. Estimated cooling rates through these molecules are 7.5×¹⁰−3, 1.4×¹⁰−3, and , respectively, for a total nearly half that of H⁺₃. We derive a temperature of 450 ± 50 K in the ¹⁰−7-¹⁰−5 bar region from the C₂H₂ lines.