Application of a fuzzy inference system for the prediction of longshore sediment transport

A fuzzy inference system (FIS) and a hybrid adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), which combines a fuzzy inference system and a neural network, are used to predict and model longshore sediment transport (LST). The measurement data (field and experimental data) obtained from Kamphuis [1] and Smith et al. [2] were used to develop the model. The FIS and ANFIS models employ five inputs (breaking wave height, breaking wave angle, slope at the breaking point, peak wave period and median grain size) and one output (longshore sediment transport rate). The criteria used to measure the performances of the models include the bias, the root mean square error, the scatter index and the coefficients of determination and correlation. The results indicate that the ANFIS model is superior to the FIS model for predicting LST rates. To verify the ANFIS model, the model was applied to the Karaburun coastal region, which is located along the southwestern coast of the Black Sea. The LST rates obtained from the ANFIS model were compared with the field measurements, the CERC [3] formula, the Kamphuis [1] formula and the numerical model (LITPACK). The percentages of error between the measured rates and the calculated LST rates based on the ANFIS method, the CERC formula (K_sig = 0.39), the calibrated CERC formula (K_sig = 0.08), the Kamphuis [1] formula and the numerical model (LITPACK) are 6.5%, 413.9%, 6.9%, 15.3% and 18.1%, respectively. The comparison of the results suggests that the ANFIS model is superior to the FIS model for predicting LST rates and performs significantly better than the tested empirical formulas and the numerical model.     

A 500 yr speleothem-derived reconstruction of late autumn–winter precipitation, northeast Turkey

A verified instrumental calibration of annually resolved δ¹⁸O for a stalagmite from Gümü?hane in northeast Turkey is presented and cross-validated using a ‘leave-one-out’ technique. The amount of late autumn to winter precipitation is negatively correlated with stalagmite δ¹⁸O between AD 1938 and 2004. The observed relationship is extrapolated back to ~ AD 1500 leading to the first long winter precipitation reconstruction for this region. Modern day October to January precipitation is linked to pressure fields in Western Russia. Anomalously lower reconstructed rainfall is recorded in AD 1540–1560 at which time higher pressure over the Caspian Sea region is inferred.     

天然气水合物储层地震波振幅属性研究

以实际水合物存在的美国布莱克海台地震数据为例,利用地震剖面中4个层位(海底层、水合物顶层、水合物层和游离气层)地震数据进行了地震属性的提取及属性分析,研究了各层位的属性特征。结果表明:均方根振幅、平均绝对振幅、平均能量变化、振幅峰态、绝对振幅积分、总能量、功率谱最大值、有限带宽能量等8种属性值在各层位的分布情况基本相同,即海底最高,其余依次是水合物层、游离气层和水合物顶层,可区分出水合物层和游离气层。由此,通过对比各层位的振幅属性值,可以指示天然气水合物的存在,为水合物识别及其开采提供参考依据。     

坍缩为黑洞前的自引力球对称电磁辐射体系

本文在R.D.sorkin等人工作的基础上对自引力球对称电磁辐射体系坍缩为黑洞前的能量密度及最大熵值作了讨论,得到了一些有意义的结果.     

黑洞X射线双星的类氢类氦铁K_α发射线

用径移主导吸积流模型(ADAF)不仅可以成功解释很多低吸积率天体的连续谱辐射,也可以说明X射线波段的谱线发射,而后者目前尚少有讨论.以黑洞X射线双星GX339-4处在低吸积率的宁静态情况为例,计算了它的铁线发射,表明在ADAF情况下的确可以产生足够强的可以在观测上检测的类氢和类氦铁Kα线.     

Interaction of accretion shocks with winds

Accretion shocks are known to oscillate in presence of cooling processes in the disk. This oscillation may also cause quasi-periodic oscillations of black holes. In the presence of strong winds, these shocks have oscillations in vertical direction as well. We show examples of shock oscillations under the influence of both the effects. When the shocks are absent and the flow is cooler, the wind becomes weaker and the vertical oscillation becomes negligible.     

Galactic gradients, postbiological evolution and the apparent failure of SETI

Motivated by recent developments impacting our view of Fermi’s Paradox (the absence of extraterrestrials and their manifestations from our past light cone), we suggest a reassessment of the problem itself, as well as of strategies employed by the various SETI projects so far. The need for such reassessment is fueled not only by the failure of SETI thus far, but also by great advances recently made in astrophysics, astrobiology, computer science and future studies. As a result, we consider the effects of the observed metallicity and temperature gradients in the Milky Way galaxy on the spatial distribution of hypothetical advanced extraterrestrial intelligent communities. While properties of such communities and their sociological and technological preferences are, obviously, unknown at present, we assume that (1) they operate in agreement with the known laws of physics and (2) at some point in their history they typically become motivated by a meta-principle embodying the central role of information-processing; a prototype of the latter is the recently suggested Intelligence Principle of Steven J. Dick. There are specific conclusions of practical interest to astrobiological and SETI endeavors to be drawn from the coupling of these reasonable assumptions with the astrophysical and astrochemical structure of the spiral disk of our galaxy. In particular, we suggest that the outer regions of the Galactic disk are the most likely locations for advanced SETI targets, and that sophisticated intelligent communities will tend to migrate outward through the Galaxy as their capacities of information-processing increase, for both thermodynamical and astrochemical reasons. However, the outward movement is limited by the decrease in matter density in the outer Milky Way. This can also be regarded as a possible generalization of the galactic habitable zone (GHZ), concept currently being investigated in astrobiology.     

Numerical Simulation of Small Perturbation on an Accretion Disk Due to the Collision of a Star with the Disk Near the Black Hole

In this paper, perturbations of an accretion disk by a star orbiting around a black hole are studied. We report on a numerical experiment, which has been carried out by using a parallel-machine code originally developed by Dönmez (2004). An initially steady state accretion disk near a non-rotating (Schwarzschild) black hole interacts with a “star”, modeled as an initially circular region of increased density. Part of the disk is affected by the interaction. In some cases, a gap develops and shock wave propagates through the disk. We follow the evolution for order of one dynamical period and we show how the non-axisymetric density perturbation further evolves and moves downwards where the material of the disk and the star become eventually accreted onto the central body. When the star perturbs the steady state accretion disk, the disk around the black hole is destroyed by the effect of perturbation. The perturbed accretion disk creates a shock wave during the evolution and it loses angular momentum when the gas hits on the shock waves. Colliding gas with the shock wave is the one of the basic mechanism of emitting the X-rays in the accretion disk. The series of supernovae occurring in the inner disk could entirely destroy the disk in that region which leaves a more massive black hole behind, at the center of galaxies.