滑坡定量预测的非线性理论方法

滑坡时空预测是当前滑坡研究中的难题，特别是滑坡时间预测工作，其进展缓慢。本文基于非线性科学理论，分析了滑坡活动的分形特征及时间分形预测方法，研究了滑坡空间预测的人工神经网络特征，系统介绍了滑坡时间预测的非线性动力学理论。在此基础上，讨论了滑坡定量预测的发展趋势。     

随机地震荷载作用下饱和粉土的液化特性

为了考虑随机地震荷载作用下饱和粉土的液化特性，研究了如何通过合理的地震响应分析确定饱和粉土层受到的随机地震荷载，进一步探讨了随机地震荷载作用下的动三轴试验技术，以及利用此种试验分析饱和粉土液化特性的方法。研究结果为形成判别饱和粉土层地震液化可能性的新方法提供了依据。     

Influence of the Load Wavelength on the Permeability of a Viscosity Interface in the Mantle

Assuming a radially stratified Newtonian mantle in a steady-state approximation, we demonstrate that the permeability of a viscosity interface at 660-km depth strongly depends on the wavelength of buoyancy forces driving the flow. The flow induced by long-wavelength loads penetrates through the boundary freely even if the viscosity increases by two orders. In contrast, the boundary is practically impermeable for short-wavelength loads located in the upper mantle. Thus, a stepwise increase of viscosity is a significant obstacle for small descending features in the upper mantle, but huge upper mantle downwellings, or upwellings formed in the-lower mantle can overcome it easily. This indicates that certain care is necessary in interpreting the seismic structure of the mantle by means of flow models. The global tomographic image includes only the first few degrees of the harmonic series and, consequently, its interpretation in terms of a present-day flow field results in a predominantly whole-mantle circulation even for extreme viscosity contrasts.     

Observations of flux rope – associated particle bursts with GEOTAIL in the distant tail

Geotail energetic particle, magnetic field data and plasma observations (EPIC, MGF and CPI experiments) have been examined for a number of energetic particle bursts in the distant tail (120Re < |X_GSM| < 130 Re), associated with moving magnetic field structures, following substorm onsets. The features obtained from this data analysis are consistent with the distant magnetotail dynamics determined first by ISEE3 observations and explained in terms of the neutral line model. At the onset of the bursts, before plasma sheet entrance, energetic electrons appear as a field-aligned beam flowing in the tailward direction, followed by anisotro-pic ions. Within the flux rope region, suprathermal ions exhibit a convective anisotropy, which allows determination of the plasma flow velocity, assuming that the anisotropy arises from the Compton-Getting effect. The velocities thus determined in the plasma sheet are estimated to be 200–650 km/s, and compare favourably with the velocities derived from the CPI electron and proton experiment. The estimated length of magnetic field structures varies between 28 and 56 Re and depends on the strength of the westward electrojet intensification. Finally, the three structures reported here show clear magnetic field signatures of flux rope topology. The existence of a strong magnetic field aligned approximately along the Y-axis and centred on the north-to-south excursion of the field, and the bipolar signature in both By and/or Bz components, is consistent with the existence of closed field lines extending from Earth and wrapping around the core of the flux rope structure.     

Prediction of the measured response of a scaled soil-pile-superstructure system

The validity of the Winkler foundation model is investigated by predicting the experimentally measured displacement transfer functions and strain spectra of a single pile embedded in a sandbox and supporting a single-degree-of-freedom superstructure. The foundation-superstructure system is a scale model and was subjected to shake table excitations. The distributed springs and dashpots of the Winkler foundation model are frequency dependent and the calibrated model predicts satisfactorily the displacement transfer function at different depths for both fixed- and free-tip pile conditions. On the other hand, the pile-axial-strains are substantially underestimated when expressed in terms of the second derivative of the computed elastic line of the pile. It is shown that a much more dependable prediction is achieved when pile-axial-strains are expressed in terms of the inertial forces acting along the pile-superstructure system.     

黄土动力学数据处理软件的研制

从数据分析和处理流程和功能模块设计方面讨论了应用Visual Basic进行土动力学数据处理系统开发时的问题及可行的解决方案，介绍了编制的土动力学数据处理系统的主要功能。     

俄罗斯远东金属矿床形成条件的古地球动力学分析

根据本区地质构造的新资料,提出了区域板块构造模型。研究了从俯冲到加利福尼亚型转换和由后者又到俯冲的古地球动力学环境更替的意义。这种更替发生在对本区最重要的中—新生代历史时期,对区域成矿带整体乃至一些金属矿床的形成具有重要影响。论证了一些地体性质,尤其是俯冲-增生杂岩对矿床形成的重要意义。     

Non-linear channel–shoal dynamics in long tidal embayments

The dynamics of finite-amplitude bed forms in a tidal channel is studied with the use of an idealized morphodynamic model. The latter is based on depth-averaged equations for the tidal flow over a sandy bottom. The model considers phenomena on spatial scales of the order of the tidal excursion length. Transport of sediment mainly takes place as suspended load. The reference state of this model is characterized by a spatially uniform M₂ tidal current over a fixed horizontal bed. The temporal evolution of deviations from this reference state is governed by amplitude equations: these are a set of non-linear equations that describe the temporal evolution of bed forms. These equations are used to obtain new morphodynamic equilibria which may be either static or time-periodic. Several of these bottom profiles show strong similarity with the tidal bars that are observed in natural estuaries. The dependence of the equilibrium solutions on the value of bottom friction and channel width is investigated systematically. For narrow channels (width small compared to the tidal excursion length) stable static equilibria exist if bottom friction is slightly larger than r_cr. For channel widths more comparable to the tidal excursion length, multiple stable steady states may exist for bottom friction parameter values below r_cr. Regardless of channel width, stable time-periodic equilibria seem to emerge as the bottom friction is increased.Responsible Editor: Jens Kappenberg     

Dynamik der Schilfröhrichte am Bodensee unter dem Einfluss von Wasserstandsvariationen

On the basis of different sets of aerial photos the dynamics of the reed bed areas of Lake Constance were investigated in relation to the dynamics of the water levels. The objectives of the study were to quantify the changes of reed areas due to different flood events in the last decades and their recovery in the time periods between these events. The results should given information of the relevance of water level variations on reed bed dynamics and the regeneration times of reed beds after extreme disturbance events.Following the extreme flood at Lake Constance in 1999 the reed belts of Lake Constance lost approximately 30 ha (24%) of the lakeside reed beds. The loss is comparable to the situation in the late 1960s, when approximately 40 ha died back due to the extreme flood in 1965 and the high spring water levels in the subsequent years. In the time period between the extreme floods of 1965 and 1999, the reed areas expanded to nearly 85% of the area before 1965. The expansion rates increased with increasing distance to the flood event of 1965. Especially in periods with series of years of low spring water level the expansion rates were high.The damage degrees of the reed areas in the years 2000 and 2002 showed a clear relation to the elevation (i.e. average water level) of the stands. The damage degree increased with decreasing elevation. Furthermore the regeneration process of severely damaged stands was related to the elevation level of the stands. Whereas stands at high elevation regenerate fast, those at low elevation died off completely in the years after the extreme flood. This supports the hypothesis that the water level flutuations play a major role in the reed dynamics of Lake Constance.As a consequence of the climate change an increase in the frequency of high spring water levels is expected. Thus, it seems unlikely that reed stands will ever expand again to the same area as before 1965.     

Molecular modeling of the 10-Å phase at subduction zone conditions

Molecular dynamics (MD) modeling of the 10-Å phase, Mg₃Si₄O₁₀(OH)₂·xH₂O, with x=2/3, 1.0 and 2.0 shows complex structural changes with pressure, temperature and water content and provides new insight into the structures and stabilization of these phases under subduction zone conditions. The structure(s) of this phase and its role as a reservoir of water in the mantle have been controversial, and these calculations provide specific predictions that can be tested by in situ diffraction studies. At ambient conditions, the computed structures of talc (x=0) and the 10-Å phases with x=2/3 and 1.0 are stable over the 350-ps period of the MD simulations. Under these conditions, the 10-Å phases show phlogopite-like layer stacking in good agreement with previously published structures based on powder X-ray diffraction data for samples quenched from high-pressure and high-temperature experiments. The calculations show that the 10-Å phase with x=2.0 is unstable at ambient conditions. The computed structures at P=5.5 GPa and T=750 K, well within the known stability field of the 10-Å phase, change significantly with water content, reflecting changing H-bonding configurations. For x=2/3, the layer stacking is talc-like, and for x=1.0, it is phlogopite-like. The calculations show that transformation between these two stackings occurs readily, and that the talc-like stacking for the x=2/3 composition is unlikely to be quenchable to ambient conditions. For x=2.0, the layer stacking at P=5.5 GPa and T=750 K is different than any previously proposed structure for a 10-Å phase. In this structure, the neighboring basal oxygens of adjacent magnesium silicate layers are displaced by b/3 (about 3 Å) resulting in the Si atoms of one siloxane sheet being located above the center of the six-member ring across the interlayer. The water molecules are located 1.2 Å above the center of all six-member rings and accept H-bonds from the OH groups located below the rings. The b/3-displaced structure does not readily transform to either the talc-like or phlogopite-like structure, because neither of these stackings can accommodate two water molecules per formula unit. There is likely to be a compositional discontinuity and phase transition between the b/3-displaced phase and the phase with phlogopite-like stacking. The simulations reported here are the first to use the recently developed CLAYFF force field to calculate mineral structures at elevated pressures and temperatures.