针对应急救援的强余震特征统计

大地震后强余震活跃,震后快速判断最大余震震级和强余震发生可能性对提高应急救援效率有重大意义。针对震后应急救援,本文根据救援存活率将震后救援期分为8个时段:震后12 h、震后24 h、震后48 h、震后72 h、震后96 h、震后120 h、震后144 h和震后168 h。对我国大陆地区1966年以来6级及以上地震强余震资料进行分时段统计,分别拟合出8个时段的最大余震震级和主震震级的经验公式;并提出震后强余震发生可能性的经验判断方法,通过本文提出的可能性指数a,依据主震震级,震后可以快速判定强余震发生的可能性。     

Richter magnitudes and site corrections using vertical component seismograms

The definition of the Richter Ml magnitude scale is in terms of seismic wave horizontal components recorded on Wood‐Anderson seismographs. However, at many seismograph sites only the vertical component is available, and at sedimentary sites horizontal components are usually significantly amplified, causing complications in the assignment of a magnitude to an earthquake. Because each earthquake can be recorded at a different subset of sites, each subset having a different combination of site amplifications, the assignment of a magnitude is dependent upon the seismograph site combination that records a particular earthquake. Although there is some amplification of the vertical component at sedimentary foundation sites, it is shown that a reduced spread of values of Ml magnitude, consistent with low amplification (bedrock) site magnitudes, can be achieved using the vertical component to compute the magnitude and adding 0.2 to adjust to the Ml magnitude scale (defined in terms of the horizontal components). This presupposes that the sites used by Richter were on bedrock; however, even if this is incorrect, it appears to be a necessary precondition for the world‐wide unification of the Richter scale along with defining the true gain of Wood‐Anderson seismographs rather than accepting the design gain of 2800. Site corrections would be smaller than those established using the horizontal components. Taking into account the use of only the vertical component in the calculation of Ml and including the 0.2 adjustment to the equivalent horizontal component derived magnitude, the expression for the calculation of magnitudes in the Victoria region becomes:

Ml = logA_z ‐ logS_z + 0.9 + logR + 0.0056Re^‐0.0013R

where A_z is the equivalent Wood‐Anderson seismograph displacement amplitude, S_z is the site amplification (vertical component) and R is the hypocentral distance.     

Nonlinear magnitude frequency relation and two types of seismicity systems

A nonlinear magnitude frequency equation has been derived in this paper on the assumption that all seismicity systems hold fractal characteristics, and according to the differences of relevant coefficients in the equation, seismicity systems are classified into two types: type I, the whole earthquake activity is controlled by only one great unified system; type II, the whole earthquake activity is controlled by more than one great system. One type of seismicity system may convert to the other type, generally. For example, a type I system will change to a type II system prior to the occurrence of a strong earthquake in North China. This change can be regarded as an index for earthquake trend estimation. In addition, the difference between b value in nonlinear magnitude frequency equation and that in linear equation and the term dΔM related to the coefficients of nonlinear terms obtained in this paper are proved to be a pair of available parameters for medium short term earthquake prediction.     

On estimating frequency-magnitude relations from heterogeneous catalogs

The paper studies the effect of magnitude errors on heterogeneous catalogs, by applying the apparent magnitude theory (seeTinti andMulargia, 1985a), which proves to be the most natural and rigorous approach to the problem. Heterogeneities in seismic catalogs are due to a number of various sources and affect both instrumental as well as noninstrumental earthquake compilations.The most frequent basis of heterogeneity is certainly that the recent instrumental records are to be combined with the historic and prehistoric event listings to secure a time coverage, considerably longer than the recurrence time of the major earthquakes. Therefore the case which attracts the greatest attention in the present analysis is that of a catalog consisting of a subset of higher quality data, generallyS ₁, spanning the interval T ₁ (the instrumental catalog), and of a second subset of more uncertain magnitude determination, generallyS ₂, covering a vastly longer interval T ₂ (the historic and/or the geologic catalog). The magnitude threshold of the subcatalogS ₁ is supposedly smaller than that ofS ₂, which, as we will see, is one of the major causes of discrepancy between the apparent magnitude and the true magnitude distributions. We will further suppose that true magnitude occurrences conform to theGutenberg-Richter (GR) law, because the assumption simplified the analysis without reducing the relevancy of our findings.The main results are: 1) the apparent occurrence rate exceeds the true occurrence rate from a certain magnitude onward, saym _GR; 2) the apparent occurrence rate shows two distinct GR regimes separated by an intermediate transition region. The offset between the two regimes is the essential outcome ofS ₁ being heterogeneous with respect toS ₂. The most important consequences of this study are that: 1) it provides a basis to infer the parameters of the true magnitude distribution, by correcting the bias deriving from heterogeneous magnitude errors; 2) it demonstrates that the double GR decay, that several authors have taken as the incontestable proof of the failure of the GR law and of the experimental evidence of the characteristic earthquake theory, is instead perfectly consistent with a GR-type seismicity.     

太阳黑子活动周期对中国大陆西部不同震级段地震的影响探讨与分析

用快速富里叶变换(FFT)计算得出太阳黑子有11 a、51 a、103 a的优势周期,通过太阳黑子的活跃周期与中国大陆西部(E108°以西)不同震级段地震的活跃周期进行了对比研究,发现M.6.5以上地震受太阳黑子的影响相对弱一些,其平均周期为2.7a;而Ms5.0～6.5受太阳黑子的影响可能相对强一些,其平均周期为11.4 a.分析认为Ms≥6.5地震地周期与太阳黑活跃周期存在倍数关系,Ms5.0～6.5的周期与太阳黑子活跃周期比较相近,计算得出1950年以来地震波能量释放与太阳黑子周期有一定关系,总体表明太阳黑子活动对不同震级地震均有一定影响,但对中强地震的影响要更明显一些.     

b值在地震预测中的三类应用及其物理基础与须注意的问题

将b值在地震预测中的直接应用归为三类：1）根据b值的动态变化预测地震。2）根据G－R律求出各级地震平均复发周期或年均发生率，推测未来一定时段如50年或100年内发生各级地震的危险性。3）根据G－R直线在横轴的截距，预测强余震的震级。讨论了这三种用法的物理基础及现有工作中容易出现的问题。     

Appraisal of Seismic Hazard Parameters for the Seismic Regions of the East Circum-Pacific Belt Inferred from a Bayesian Approach

The assessment of seismic hazard parameters is important in the seismically active regions. A straightforward approach is considered for the statistical estimation of the maximum values of earthquake hazard parameters. The Bayesian estimator is suggested and emphasis is given to the evaluation of the maximum possible M_max (regional) magnitude in a future time interval T. This approach allows the uncertainty of earthquake magnitude to be accounted for. Seismic hazard parameters like the -value which is the slope of the magnitude-frequency law (where, b = log_e) and the intensity (rate) of seismic activity and their uncertainties are also estimated. The quantiles of functions of distributions of true and apparent magnitude on a given time interval [0, T] are evaluated, as well. Two main assumptions are adopted for the method:(1) earthquake occurrence is Poissonian and(2) the magnitude-frequency law is of Gutenberg-Richter type with a cutoff maximum value of magnitude. It is needless to say the seismic catalog used must have a large number of events. This requirement leads to the estimation of the parameters referred to some of the most seismically active regions of the world, e.g., Chile, Peru-Equador-South Colombia,Central America and Mexico, which belong to the east part of the circum-Pacific belt.     

不同频带数字化测震对比

通过对蒙城地震台不同频带数字化测震仪器记录的波形及震级进行对比分析,得出不同频带仪器记录不同地震事件的特点及其优越性,有利于提高数字化资料分析的精度.在进一步保证蒙城地震台观测资料的完整性和提高全频带数字化测震观测质量的同时,为蒙城地球物理野外观测研究站的科学研究提供有力数据支持.     

2020年古冶MS5.1地震序列微震检测及活动性研究

2020年7月12日河北省古冶(39.78°N, 118.44°E)发生M_S5.1地震, 震源深度10 km.本文通过对其周边500 km范围内的84个固定台站连续观测地震数据, 采用基于图形处理器的模板匹配定位识别技术(GPU-M&L)对地震前后(2020年6月1日至2020年8月31日)共三个月的连续数据进行了微震检测和地震活动性分析.我们首先从台网目录的362个古冶地震序列事件中挑选了信噪比较高的118个地震作为模板, 通过模板扫描和检测, 获得共1017个地震, 约为台网目录的2.8倍, 然后运用双差定位方法(hypoDD)对669个地震事件进行了重定位.最后我们对古冶地震的事件序列进行时空分布、震源机制解以及b值空间分布等分析.结果显示古冶M_S5.1地震前, 震中区周边地震活动性显著, 地震前后地震序列分布优势方向为NE向, 震源深度方向近直立分布; 发震断裂为唐山—古冶断裂或其延伸部分, 与1976年唐山M_S7.8地震同为唐山断裂带, 发震断层走向基本一致.据此, 我们推测古冶M_S5.1地震是1976年唐山M_S7.8地震后余震区应力调整所触发.

     

潜在震源区震级上限不确定性研究

潜在震源区的震级上限（Mu）是指在该潜在震源区内可能发生的最大地震的震级．预期未来发生超过该震级地震的概率趋于0．本文运用误差分析及逻辑树等方法,并结合发震模型的数值模拟得到的大震合成目录等结果,系统分析并最终得到了不同途径给出的不同类型潜在震源区震级上限的不确定性．该结果可直接应用于包括地震区划在内的工程地震以及活动断裂危险性评价等工作中．