Modeling the cyclic swelling pressure of mudrock using artificial neural networks

The stochastic nature of the cyclic swelling behavior of mudrock and its dependence on a large number of interdependent parameters was modeled using Time Delay Neural Networks (TDNNs). This method has facilitated predicting cyclic swelling pressure with an acceptable level of accuracy where developing a general mathematical model is almost impossible. A number of total pressure cells between shotcrete and concrete walls of the powerhouse cavern at Masjed–Soleiman Hydroelectric Powerhouse Project, South of Iran, where mudrock outcrops, confirmed a cyclic swelling pressure on the lining since 1999. In several locations, small cracks are generated which has raised doubts about long term stability of the powerhouse structure. This necessitated a study for predicting future swelling pressure. Considering the complexity of the interdependent parameters in this problem, TDNNs proved to be a powerful tool. The results of this modeling are presented in this paper.     

Net Energy Payback and CO2 Emissions from Three Midwestern Wind Farms: An Update

This paper updates a life-cycle net energy analysis and carbon dioxide emissions analysis of three Midwestern utility-scale wind systems. Both the Energy Payback Ratio (EPR) and CO₂ analysis results provide useful data for policy discussions regarding an efficient and low-carbon energy mix. The EPR is the amount of electrical energy produced for the lifetime of the power plant divided by the total amount of energy required to procure and transport the materials, build, operate, and decommission the power plants. The CO₂ analysis for each power plant was calculated from the life-cycle energy input data. A previous study also analyzed coal and nuclear fission power plants. At the time of that study, two of the three wind systems had less than a full year of generation data to project the life-cycle energy production. This study updates the analysis of three wind systems with an additional four to eight years of operating data. The EPR for the utility-scale wind systems ranges from a low of 11 for a two-turbine system in Wisconsin to 28 for a 143-turbine system in southwestern Minnesota. The EPR is 11 for coal, 25 for fission with gas centrifuge enriched uranium and 7 for gaseous diffusion enriched uranium. The normalized CO₂ emissions, in tonnes of CO₂ per GW_eh, ranges from 14 to 33 for the wind systems, 974 for coal, and 10 and 34 for nuclear fission using gas centrifuge and gaseous diffusion enriched uranium, respectively.     

龙永煤田危机矿山资源接替的几种勘探模式

通过龙永煤田现有煤矿状况调查分析发现：许多矿井已步入“花甲之年”，接近矿井服务年限。为了保障我省能源安全，应当采用有效勘探方法，方能使它们“返老还童”。研究发现危机矿山延长服务年限的几种勘探模式是：其一为扩大（延伸）勘探模式；其二为小型井田（块段）勘探模式；其三为资料分析研究模式。经探采对比发现，采用这三种勘探模式后，产生了巨大的经济效益，使一大批老矿井青春再度焕发。     

基于GIS与ANN耦合技术的地裂缝灾情非线性模拟预测系统——以山西榆次地裂缝灾害为例

现代地裂缝在世界许多国家普遍存在 ,已成为当今世界范围内的主要地质灾害之一。本文在详尽分析了山西榆次地裂缝的各个致灾因子的基础上 ,利用GIS技术建立了地质学意义上的专题层 ;然后采用人工神经网络技术构建出了地裂缝灾害活动性的评价模型 ,并建立了地裂缝活动性的评价系统 ,对榆次地裂缝进行了灾害活动性评价 ,为榆次市城建和国土规划等部门的正确决策提供了重要的科学依据     

天津市地震经济损失模型和生命损失模型的预测研究

文中主要探讨了由地震引起的天津市经济损失和生命损失的预测问题。首先阐述了天津市震害预测的 5个背景特点 :建筑物特点、地质条件特点、建筑场地划分特点、基本设防烈度特点以及地震烈度衰减关系特点 ,根据这 5个特点将天津市划分为含有 7种建筑结构形式的 4个区域的震害预测模式。在此基础上 ,分析了天津市地震经济损失模型和生命损失模型 ,考虑了时间因素 ,然后与1976年唐山大地震的实际震害结果进行了对比及修正 ,给出了天津市 4个区域的建筑物地震经济损失率模型、社会财富损失率模型和建筑物毁坏率模型 ,并给出了计算天津市建筑物地震经济损失、天津市国内生产总值GDP地震经济损失和天津市地震生命损失的表达式 ;最后 ,将天津市地区划分为2 85 8个震害评估单元 ,以近百年来在天津市区域内曾经发生的最大地震作为假想地震 ,预测分析了天津市建筑物地震经济损失分布和地震生命损失分布结果     

喀什"奇异震群"与构造地震的对比研究

20 0 1年 11月 14、 15日新疆喀什台记录到 86次振动事件 (“奇异震群”事件 )。为识别其性质 ,应用波谱分析、偏振分析等方法 ,对该事件和同范围构造地震的地震波特征进行了对比研究 ,发现 :(1)喀什“震群”的全波列衰减比构造地震的全波列衰减快很多 ;(2 )与构造地震的速度谱相比 ,“震群”的频谱相对较为“集中”,而构造地震的则较为“发散”;(3)“震群”位移谱的拐角频率和卓越频率均较构造地震的相应量高出一倍多 ,且离散较小。通过对喀什“奇异震群”这些特征进行分析研究 ,认为这一事件极有可能是人工事件     

略论目标规划及交互方法在小康示范村规划中的实践--以西藏贡嘎县沃拉村为例

建设全面小康社会是我国本世纪头20年的核心内容,目前已经有越来越多的人加入到这一研究领域中,该领域的规划研究工作正在逐渐加强。本文以西藏贡嘎县沃拉村为例,介绍了目标规划及交互方法小康示范村规划中的实践,讨论了规划的过程、建模方法及模型的精度等问题,认为在研究人员的指导下,由村民学习并建模的方法是今后小康村规划的发展方向。     

Classification of artificial (man-made) ground

The legacy inherited from anthropogenic processes needs to be addressed in order to provide reliable and up-to-date ground information relevant to development and regeneration in the urban environment. The legacy includes voids as well as anthropogenic deposits (artificial ground). Their characteristics derive from former quarrying and mining activities industrial processes creating derelict ground, variably consolidated made ground, and contaminated groundwater and soils. All need to be systematically assessed to inform the planning process and provide the basis for engineering solutions. Site-specific investigation needs to be conducted on the back of good quality geoscientific data. This comes from ‘field’ survey, remotely sensed data interpretation, historical maps, soil geochemical sampling, and geotechnical investigation. Three-dimensional and, in the future, four dimensional, characterization of superficial deposits is required to reach an understanding of the potential spatial lithological variability of artificial ground and the geometry of important surfaces, i.e. the boundary conditions. The classification scheme for artificial ground outlined in this paper and adopted by the British Geological Survey, will help in achieving this understanding.     

Application of visual,statistical and artificial neural network methods in the differentiation of water from the exploited aquifers in Kuwait

The ability of artificial neural network to differentiate water samples from the two aquifers of Kuwait on the basis of their major ion chemistry has been demonstrated. The major ion concentration distribution in the groundwater of the Kuwait Group and the Dammam Formation aquifers of Kuwait appears very similar. Cross-plots, supported by the discriminant function analysis of the data, however, suggest that there are some subtle differences in the overall composition of the water from the two aquifers that make it possible to differentiate the water from the two aquifers in almost 80% of the cases. An artificial neural network improved the differentiation capability to 90% of the cases. It is also possible to estimate the fraction of Kuwait Group water in the flow stream of dually completed wells with the help of an artificial neural network developed for this purpose. Electronic Publication     

福建省干旱概况及夏旱期间人工增雨条件分析

对福建省干旱的成因和干旱的环流形势进行了探讨,着重分析了夏旱期间人工增雨作业的天气形势、云状、回波特征及云顶温度等条件,结果表明福建省干旱的形成与大型环流形势、地形、地貌及土壤植被条件有关;平均而言,闽东南沿海干旱多于内陆地区;西太平洋副热带高压是夏季致旱的主要天气系统;夏季,西风槽前型、台风外围影响型、副热带辐合带型是进行人工增雨作业的有利天气形势,Sc、Cb、Cu云都有一定的人工增雨作业条件,其中降水时长1～5 h,过程雨量1.0～5.0 mm的云是旱季作业比较适合的作业云.这些结果为开展人工增雨作业提供理论依据,达到解除或缓解干旱的目的.