Disturbance of recruitment success of mantis shrimp in Tokyo Bay associated with effects of hypoxia on the early life history

We investigated effects of severe hypoxia (dissolved oxygen <1 ml l⁻¹) on recruitment of mantis shrimp Oratosquilla oratoria in Tokyo Bay. Ten-year field surveys were conducted to examine quantitative relationships in annual mean densities of larvae and juveniles, and spatial distribution of juveniles and severe hypoxia. There was no significant correlation between annual mean densities of larvae and juveniles, suggesting that mortality during larval or juvenile stages varies among years, which might have regulated abundance of young-of-the-year juveniles. Juvenile density was low in the severely hypoxic area, implying that hypoxia could affect survivals and spatial distribution of juveniles. Meanwhile, there are yearly fluctuations in juvenile density in normoxic areas of both northern and southern part of the bay. This evidence suggests that abundance of post-settled juveniles might have been determined by not only effects of hypoxia, but also other factors influencing mortality during the early life stages.     

高坝抗震设防问题的探讨

本文探讨了高坝抗震设防的决策问题。分别从高坝设计使用年限及高坝的功能2个角度出发,探讨了进行高坝抗震设防标准决策的2种不同方法。从高坝设计使用年限出发,提出同样重要性的结构在不同的设计使用年限应具有相同的可靠度水平,以此来进行抗震设防烈度的决策。从基于功能分析的角度出发,提出应使总的期望损失最小为准则来进行最优抗震设防烈度的决策。     

Logistic regression versus artificial neural networks: landslide susceptibility evaluation in a sample area of the Serchio River valley,Italy

This article presents a multidisciplinary approach to landslide susceptibility mapping by means of logistic regression, artificial neural network, and geographic information system (GIS) techniques. The methodology applied in ranking slope instability developed through statistical models (conditional analysis and logistic regression), and neural network application, in order to better understand the relationship between the geological/geomorphological landforms and processes and landslide occurrence, and to increase the performance of landslide susceptibility models. The proposed experimental study concerns with a wide research project, promoted by the Tuscany Region Administration and APAT-Italian Geological Survey, aimed at defining the landslide hazard in the area of the Sheet 250 “Castelnuovo di Garfagnana” (1:50,000 scale). The study area is located in the middle part of the Serchio River basin and is characterized by high landslide susceptibility due to its geological, geomorphological, and climatic features, among the most severe in Italy. Terrain susceptibility to slope failure has been approached by means of indirect-quantitative statistical methods and neural network software application. Experimental results from different methods and the potentials and pitfalls of this methodological approach have been presented and discussed. Applying multivariate statistical analyses made it possible a better understanding of the phenomena and quantification of the relationship between the instability factors and landslide occurrence. In particular, the application of a multilayer neural network, equipped for supervised learning and error control, has improved the performance of the model. Finally, a first attempt to evaluate the classification efficiency of the multivariate models has been performed by means of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves analysis approach.     

Forecasting of groundwater level in hard rock region using artificial neural network

In hardrock terrain where seasonal streams are not perennial source of freshwater, increase in ground water exploitation has already resulted here in declining ground water levels and deteriorating its’ quality. The aquifer system has shown signs of depletion and quality contamination. Thus, to secure water for the future, water resource estimation and management has urgently become the need of the hour. In order to manage groundwater resources, it is vital to have a tool to predict the aquifer response for a given stress (abstraction and recharge). Artificial neural network (ANN) has surfaced as a proven and potential methodology to forecast the groundwater levels. In this paper, Feed-Forward Network based ANN model is used as a method to predict the groundwater levels. The models are trained with the inputs collected from field and then used as prediction tool for various scenarios of stress on aquifer. Such predictions help in developing better strategies for sustainable development of groundwater resources.     

大气冰核谱分布对对流风暴云人工催化影响的数值模拟研究

2002年9月在青海省河南县人工增雨综合试验基地开展了人工增雨外场综合观测试验.根据这次实验得到的大气冰核资料,以及文献给出的另外两组常用的冰核资料,利用中国科学院大气物理研究所研制和发展的三维对流云人工催化数值模式,讨论了3类不同大气冰核谱环境对模拟对流风暴云人工催化增雨效果的影响,模式中还考虑了国内人工影响天气部门常用的RYI-6300型和WR-1B型人工增雨防雹火箭播云弹道的差异.模拟结果表明,3类不同大气冰核谱环境对模拟对流风暴云的宏观和微观参量分布结构有很大影响,在这些对流云中进行火箭播云催化试验得到的播云效果也有很大差异.大气环境中高温冰核浓度低,而低温冰核浓度高时,对流风暴云人工催化将导致云中冰晶过量,不利于对流风暴云降水增加.在大气环境中高温冰核浓度较高,并且低温冰核浓度较低时,对流催化风暴云可获得最高的人工增雨效果.在青海试验区的大气冰核谱环境下,火箭催化对流风暴云增雨有一定效果.对不同地区进行人工增雨作业时,了解清楚当地大气冰核的基本背景状况对于正确地评估播云效果非常重要.文中还给出了导致这些结果差异的物理解释.     

控制论与人工影响天气II.工程控制论在人工增雨作业中的应用与建模

人工增雨已有60余年历史,虽已取得很多成绩,仍存在很多亟待解决的科学技术问题,典型问题如作业具有一定的主观性及其与效果检验有脱节.控制论研究如何对系统施加控制作用使其表现出预定行为.作者研究工程控制论在人工增雨作业中的应用与建模问题,将工程控制论引入人工增雨作业,称作“局部控制”方法.以冷云的人工催化过程为例,以单容加延迟的过程来简化单块冷云催化核化过程,建立了有反馈的冷云催化框架模型.根据效果调整催化剂的播撒率以实施控制作用,使作业后的雨云关键参数达到预期值.这种“局部控制”方法,可使现有作业更科学化和客观定量化,只在作业设备中增加一通讯单元和作为传感/变送器以及控制器的一套专业软件即可.“局部控制”方案也可嵌入以自然控制论为框架的大范围全面全程控制问题中,简化作业的方案.     

海南省大广坝水电站集水区降水特征及人工增雨潜力分析

本文分析了海南省大广坝水电站集水区降水分布特征并研究了人工增雨的潜力。结果表明,大广坝水电站集水区降水年际差异较大,常年无法满负荷发电,影响了水电站效益的正常发挥。4～7月集水区实施人工增雨的潜力和成云致雨的条件较好,通过人工增雨的手段可以有效提高水电站的发电效益。     

Incorporating uncertainty into the estimation of biological reference points for a spiny lobster (Panulirus penicillatus) fishery

The status of a fishery is often defined as the probability of fishing mortality rate exceeding a perilous level for long‐term sustainability. Lobster stock assessments are often subject to large uncertainty in input data and high levels of natural variability in lobster life history processes, which calls for incorporating uncertainty associated with both indicator and management reference points in an evaluation of biological risk of overfishing. Using a Monte Carlo simulation approach, we evaluated the impacts of uncertainty in modelling on the determination of the status of the Taitung spiny lobster (Panulirus penicillatus) fishery (Taiwan), which has not been quantitatively determined despite its commercial importance. The commonly used biological reference points derived from the per recruit model (F _0.1 the fishing mortality rate where the slope of the curve of yield‐per‐recruit model is 10% of the maximum slope and F _4Q%, the fishing mortality rate that reduces the expected egg production for a cohort of female lobsters to 40% of that produced in the absence of a fishery of the egg‐per‐recruit model) were influenced by uncertainties associated with lobster life history and fishery parameters. A large uncertainty in the current fishing mortality rate (F _cnr) and estimates of biological reference points (F _BRPs) increased the uncertainty in determining the risk of overexploitation throughout the confidence levels of the stochastic decision‐making framework. This simulation study suggests that the target reference point of F _40% is less sensitive to the input parameters’ uncertainty than F _0.1 We suggest a further evaluation of other F‐based references points and development of biomass‐based reference points before final selection and implementation for the management of the Taitung lobster fishery.     

Culture observation and molecular phylogenetic analysis on the blooming green alga Chaetomorpha valida (Cladophorales, Chlorophyta) from China

The marine green alga Chaetomorpha valida fouls aquaculture ponds along the coastal cities of Dalian and Rongcheng, China. Unialgal cultures were observed under a microscope to determine the developmental morphological characters of C. valida. Results reveal that gametophytic filaments often produce lateral branches under laboratory culture conditions, suggesting an atypical heteromorphic life cycle of C. valida between unbranched sporophytes and branched gametophytes, which differs from typical isomorphic alternation of Chaetomorpha species. The shape of the basal attachment cell, an important taxonomic character within the genus, was found variable depending on environmental conditions. The 18S rDNA and 28S rDNA regions were used to explore the phylogenetic affinity of the taxa. Inferred trees from 18S rDNA sequences revealed a close relationship between C. valida and Chaetomorpha moniligera. These results would enrich information in general biology and morphological plasticity of C. valida and provided a basis for future identification of green tide forming algae.     

Effects of exposure to four endocrine disrupting-chemicals on fertilization and embryonic development of Barbel chub (Squaliobarbus curriculus)

The toxicities of 4 common endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs), 17β-estradiol (E2), p,p′-dichlorodiphenyldichloro-ethylene (DDE), 4-nonylphenol (NP) and tributyltin (TBT), to sperm motility, fertilization rate, hatching rate and embryonic development of Barbel chub (Squaliobarbus curriculus) were investigated in this study. The duration of sperm motility was significantly shortened by exposure to the EDCs at the threshold concentrations of 10 ng L^?1 for E2 and TBT, 1 μg L^?1 for NP and 100 μg L^?1 for DDE, respectively. The fertilization rate was substantially reduced by the EDCs at the lowest observable effect concentrations (LOECs) of 10 ng L^?1 for E2 and TBT and 10 μg L^?1 for DDE and NP, respectively. Of the tested properties of S. curriculus, larval deformity rate was most sensitive to EDC exposure and was significantly increased by DDE at the lowest experimental level of 0.1 μg L^?1. Other EDCs increased the larval deformity rate at the LOECs of 1 ng L^?1 for E2, 10 ng L^?1 for TBT and 1 μg L^?1 for NP, respectively. Despite their decreases with the increasing EDC concentrations, the hatching rate and larval survival rate of S. curriculus were not significantly affected by the exposure to EDCs. The results indicated that all the 4 EDCs affected significantly and negatively the early life stages of the freshwater fish S. curriculus. Overall, E2 and TBT were more toxic than NP and DDE, while DDE might be more toxic to larval deformity rate than to other measured parameters. Thus, the 4 EDCs showed potential negative influences on natural population dynamics of S. curriculus. Our findings provided valuable basic data for the ecological risk assessment of E2, DDE, NP and TBT.