RegCM3模式对青藏高原夏季气温和降水的模拟

利用RegCM3模式对青藏高原1991—2000年10年夏季（6~8月）的地面气温和降水进行了模拟, 其模拟结果与CRU资料的对比分析表明: RegCM3模式的模拟能再现高原地面气温和降水的基本特征, 特别是气温, 能捕捉到高原北部夏季升温明显高于南部, 东北部升温最大; 在夏季3个月中, 模拟结果和CRU在6月份最为吻合, 7月份两者均为夏季气温最高月份和升温幅度最大月份, 8月份两者相差较大。RegCM3模式能够模拟出高原降水分布的基本特征和主要干湿中心, 由于高原降水的复杂性和模式对降水描述能力的不足, 降水模拟要差于气温。     

1951~2010年云贵高原大理和丽江气温、降水的气候特征分析

利用大理和丽江气象站1951~2010年的逐日气象资料,分析了横断山脉东部气温、降水的气候特征。结果表明,1991年以后,大理和丽江地区均存在显著增温的趋势（0.58和0.55℃/10 a）,明显高于同时期中国平均气温的增加幅度;而在1991年之前,大理和丽江的年平均气温呈现下降或微弱上升的趋势（-0.14和0.07℃/10 a）。与夏季平均气温的增温幅度相比,冬季平均气温的增温更显著,且其变化趋势与年均气温的气候特征是一致的。大理和丽江年总降水及各季节降水量在1951~2010年并没有明显增加或减少的趋势。大理和丽江雨季开始的时间分别为第28候和第30候,持续时间分别约为5.5和4.5个月。20世纪80年代以后,丽江年平均风速的减小强度明显大于大理,这是因为丽江站地处城区,城市化剧烈,地表粗糙度增加显著。日照时数与云量呈反相的季节变化,降水量的多年平均的逐候变化与日照时数、总云量、尤其是低云云量相关,随风速增大而减小。     

The Effect of Stratification on the Aerodynamic Roughness Length and Displacement Height

The roughness length, z _0u , and displacement height, d _0u , characterise the resistance exerted by the roughness elements on turbulent flows and provide a conventional boundary condition for a wide range of turbulent-flow problems. Classical laboratory experiments and theories treat z _0u and d _0u as geometric parameters independent of the characteristics of the flow. In this paper, we demonstrate essential stability dependences—stronger for the roughness length (especially in stable stratification) and weaker but still pronounced for the displacement height. We develop a scaling-analysis model for these dependences and verify it against experimental data.     

Improvement of Vertical Diffusion Analytic Schemes Under Stable Atmospheric Conditions

Based on gradient transport theory or K-theory, turbulent transport in the atmosphere has long been parameterized using the eddy diffusivity. Due to its simplicity, this approach has often been applied in many numerical models but rarely tested with observations. Here, the widely used O’Brien cubic polynomial approach has been validated together with an exponential approach against eddy diffusivity profiles determined from measurements and from large-eddy simulation data in stable conditions. Verification is completed by analyzing the variability effects on pollutant concentrations of two different vertical diffusion (K(z)) schemes incorporated in an atmospheric chemical model. It is shown that the analytical, exponential solution agrees better with observations than the O’Brien profile and should be used henceforth in practical applications.     

模糊马尔可夫预测法在空气质量评价中的应用

将模糊综合评价及马尔可夫链同时运用到空气质量的评价中,可克服大气环境系统所固有的模糊性及随机性。通过1994—1998年芜湖市大气环境监测数据计算表明：不仅预测结果准确,而且由于应用了模糊数学方法,使得结果较为可信,且整个过程计算简单,是一种较适合的方法。     

Updates to the MSFC Meteoroid Stream Model

The Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Meteoroid Stream Model simulates particle ejection and subsequent evolution from comets in order to provide meteor shower forecasts to spacecraft operators for hazard mitigation and planning purposes. The model, previously detailed in Moser and Cooke (Earth Moon Planets 95, 141 (2004)), has recently been updated; the changes include the implementation of the RADAU integrator, an improved planetary treatment, and the inclusion of general relativistic effects in the force function. The results of these updates are investigated with respect to various meteoroid streams and the outcome presented.     

Mostly Dormant Comets and their Disintegration into Meteoroid Streams: A Review

The history of associating meteor showers with asteroidal-looking objects is long, dating to before the 1983 discovery that 3200 Phaethon moves among the Geminids. Only since the more recent recognition that 2003 EH1 moves among the Quadrantids are we certain that dormant comets are associated with meteoroid streams. Since that time, many orphan streams have found parent bodies among the newly discovered Near Earth Objects. The seven established associations pertain mostly to showers in eccentric or highly inclined orbits. At least 35 other objects are tentatively linked to streams in less inclined orbits that are more difficult to distinguish from those of asteroids. There is mounting evidence that the streams originated from discrete breakup events, rather than long episodes of gradual water vapor outgassing. If all these associations can be confirmed, they represent a significant fraction of all dormant comets that are in near-Earth orbits, suggesting that dormant comets break at least as frequently as the lifetime of the streams. I find that most pertain to NEOs that have not yet fully decoupled from Jupiter. The picture that is emerging is one of rapid disintegration of comets after being captured by Jupiter, and consequently, that objects such as 3200 Phaethon most likely originated from among the most primitive asteroids in the main belt, instead. They too decay mostly by disintegration into comet fragments and meteoroid streams. The disintegration of dormant comets is likely the main source of our meteor showers and the main supply of dust to the zodiacal cloud. Editorial handling: Frans Rietmeijer.     

The IAU Meteor Shower Nomenclature Rules

The International Astronomical Union at its 2006 General Assembly in Prague has adopted a set of rules for meteor shower nomenclature, a working list with designated names (with IAU numbers and three-letter codes), and established a Task Group for Meteor Shower Nomenclature in Commission 22 (Meteors and Interplanetary Dust) to help define which meteor showers exist from well defined groups of meteoroids from a single parent body.     

Meteors in the IAU Meteor Data Center on Hyperbolic Orbits

The hyperbolic meteor orbits among the 4,581 photographic and 62,906 radar meteors of the IAU MDC have been analysed using statistical methods. It was shown that the vast majority of hyperbolic orbits has been caused by the dispersion of determined velocities. The large proportion of hyperbolic orbits among the known meteor showers strongly suggests the hyperbolicity of the meteors is not real. The number of apparent hyperbolic orbits increases inversely proportional to the difference between the mean heliocentric velocity of meteor shower and the parabolic velocity limit. The number of hyperbolic meteors in the investigated catalogues does not, in any case, represent the number of interstellar meteors in observational data. The apparent hyperbolicity of these orbits is caused by a high spread in velocity determination, shifting a part of the data through the parabolic limit.     

不同人为源排放清单对大气污染物浓度数值模拟的影响:以浙江省为例

应用大气化学模式WRF-Chem(Weather Research and Forecast-Chemistry),分别选用亚洲排放源清单INTEX-B(Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment-Phase B)、REASv2.1(Regional Emission inventory in Asia version 2.1)以及全球排放源清单HTAP_v2(Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution version 2),对浙江省2013年12月进行模拟,分别记为IN、RE和HT试验,研究人为源排放清单对大气污染物浓度数值模拟的影响。结果表明,3组试验合理的反映出PM2.5(空气动力学当量直径小于等于2.5μm的颗粒物,即细颗粒物)、PM10(空气动力学当量直径小于等于10μm的颗粒物,即可吸入颗粒物)和NO_2近地面浓度的时空分布特征,相关系数为0.5~0.8,85%以上的模拟值落在观测值的0.5~2倍范围内,但对SO_2近地面浓度模拟较差。IN、RE、HT试验对PM2.5和PM10的模拟偏差均成递减趋势,约为30%、16%和6%,HT试验的模拟值更加接近观测。INTEX-B清单中PM2.5的一次排放与二次气溶胶前提物SO_2均高于REAS与HTAP清单,因此会导致更多的硫酸盐生成,从而进一步增加PM2.5浓度。HTAP_v2清单中较低的NH3排放会抑制硝酸盐的生成,从而有助于降低PM2.5浓度。3个清单的基准年与模拟年的差异对SO_2浓度模拟的准确性影响更大,INTEX-B清单中SO_2排放量明显高于REASv2.1与HTAP_v2清单,尤其在浙北和沿海工业发达地区,导致IN试验模拟的SO_2在这些地区存在明显高估。3组试验模拟的NO_2浓度偏差最小且更为接近(-8%~4%),主要原因是3个清单在浙江省的NOx排放十分一致。从3组试验结果之间的差异程度来看,浙江省范围内PM2.5、PM10、SO_2和NO_2逐日浓度模拟值之间的平均差异程度分别约为14%、15%、51%和16%,最大差异程度分别为69%、78%、137%和132%。月均浓度与逐日浓度的平均差异程度基本一致,但最大差异程度明显更低。总体来看3组试验模拟的PM2.5、PM10与NO_2的差异程度明显低于SO_2。