A stochastic method for the prediction of icebreaker bow extreme stresses

It is well established that the ship-ice interaction process is quite complex and associated ice loads on the icebreaker hull is a stochastic process. Obviously, novel accurate statistical methods and models should be developed and applied to estimate extreme bow stresses.This paper studies icebreaker bow stresses based on measured distribution of ice thickness in the Arctic Ocean on the way to and from the North Pole. Since the vessel route was carefully selected searching for easier ice conditions, the Arctic Ocean crossing was not a straight linear but a meandering path. Thus, the specific ship route data was biased with respect to general ice statistics in the region, but true with respect to the route specific ice data encountered by a ship navigating in that region. Therefore the route specific ice thickness data is directly needed for ship design and navigation analysis. It is assumed that captains are competent and knowledgeable, and therefore will select a route that provides the most favourable ice conditions.This paper contributes to study of the newest Chinese self-designed polar icebreaker, serving the purpose of enhancing icebreaker operational reliability. Finite Element Method software package ANSYS/LS-DYNA has been employed to simulate bow stress pattern for a particular icebreaker operating in the Arctic Ocean. Extreme bow stresses were estimated using Naess-Gaidai method. The latter is a first application of Naess-Gaidai method to a distribution with lower bound. Thus this paper aims at introducing an efficient method of estimating route-specific icebreaker extreme bow stresses.     

An efficient and robust approach to predict ship self-propulsion coefficients

Achieving a reliable and accurate numerical prediction of the self-propulsion performance of a ship is still an open problem that poses some relevant issues. Several CFD methods, ranging from boundary element methods (BEM) to higher-fidelity viscous Reynolds averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) based solvers, can be used to accurately analyze the separate problems, i.e. the open water propeller and the hull calm water resistance. However, when the fully-coupled self-propulsion problem is considered, i.e. the hull advancing at uniform speed propelled by its own propulsion system, several complexities rise up. Typical flow simplifications adopted to speed-up the simulations of the single analysis (hull and propeller separately) lose their validity requiring a more complex solver to tackle the fully-coupled problem. The complexity rises up further when considering a maneuver condition. This aspect increases the computational burden and, consequently, the required time which becomes prohibitive in a preliminary ship design stage.The majority of the simplified methods proposed in literature to include propeller effects, without directly solve the propeller flow, in a high-fidelity viscous solver are not able to provide all the commonly required self-propulsion coefficients. In this work, a new method to enrich the results from a body force based approach is proposed and investigated, with the aim to reduce as much as possible the computational burden without losing any useful result. This procedure is tested for validation on the KCS hull form in self-propulsion and maneuver conditions.     

再探温跃层有孔虫B/Ca与温度和[CO32-]的依赖性及其在24 ka以来热带西太平洋次表层碳酸盐系统重建中的应用

The B/Ca ratio of planktonic foraminifer shells has been used as a proxy for reconstructing past ocean carbonate chemistry. However, recent studies have revealed significant uncertainties associated with this proxy, such as whether seawater temperature or [ CO_3~(2-)] is the dominant control on the partition coefficient(K_D) of planktonic foraminiferal B/Ca. To address these uncertainties and thus improve our understanding of the planktonic foraminiferal B/Ca proxy, we analysed B/Ca ratios in the tests of Neogloboquadrina dutertrei(300–355 μm) and Pulleniatina obliquiloculata(355–400 μm) in surface sediment samples from the tropical western Pacific and South China Sea. The relationship between these B/Ca ratios and bottom water calcite saturation states(Δ[ CO_3~(2-)]) is weak, thus suggesting only a small dissolution effect on the B/Ca of the two species. The correlation coefficients(R~2) between the B/Ca ratios of N. dutertrei and P. obliquiloculata and environmental parameters(e.g., temperature, salinity, phosphate, DIC and ALK) in the tropical western Pacific and South China Sea are not high enough to justify using B/Ca ratios as a palaeoenvironmental proxy in the study areas. The significant correlation between K_D values of N. dutertrei and P. obliquiloculata and carbonate system parameters(e.g.,[ CO_3~(2-)], DIC, ALK, pH and [ HCO_3~-]) in the study area reflect chemical links between the K_D denominator and these variables. Based on our surface sediment calibration, an empirical relationship between the K_D of N.dutertrei and temperature is proposed in the tropical western Pacific. We also generated a record of B/Ca ratios in N. dutertrei(300–355 μm) from Core MD06-3052 in the tropical western Pacific over the past 24 ka to evaluate the application of the revised B/Ca proxy method. Based on the reconstructed empirical relationship for B/Ca and subsurface seawater ALK, we estimated subsurface seawater carbonate system parameters in the tropical western Pacific since 24 ka. In general, the estimated subsurface seawater pH and [ CO_3~(2-)] show an increase with time, and the record of subsurface seawater pCO_2 shows a decrease with time, in the tropical western Pacific over the past 24 ka. The consistent trends in subsurface seawater pCO_2 and opal flux during deglaciation may imply that the reported increase in subsurface water pCO_2 in the study area was promoted by enhanced upwelling in the Southern Ocean.     

基于夜间灯光和土地利用数据的云南沿边地区GDP空间差异性分析

云南沿边地区包括8个地州,共56个县,其中有25个县市与老挝、缅甸和越南直接毗邻,具有重要的地缘位置。本研究利用土地利用数据和夜间灯光数据在实现云南沿边地区GDP空间化的基础上,对GDP的空间分布格局进行深入探讨,这对缩小区域经济差异及促进地区共同发展具有一定的指导意义。采用土地利用数据对国内生产总值（Gross Domestic Product, GDP）数据的第一产业进行空间化拟合,采用DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据对GDP的第二、三产业进行拟合,将第一产业和第二、三产业空间化拟合的结果相加,实现云南沿边地区1992-2013年的GDP的空间化拟合。在此基础上对云南沿边地区GDP空间分布差异进行分析。结果表明：① 土地利用数据对第一产业建模的效果较好,拟合的多期数据的相对误差均低于1.12%,采用夜间灯光数据,基于“分类回归”方法对第二、三产业拟合相对误差最大仅为6.404%,最终二者之和拟合的GDP拟合精度都较好,相对误差最大仅为4.241%;② 22期GDP数据在空间分布上均呈现正的相关性,且均为显著集聚;③ GDP空间分布局部集聚的高值-高值区域集中在开远、蒙自等县域,低值-低值地区集中在绿春、西蒙等地区;④ 云南沿边地区县域之间的经济差异在1992-1996年逐渐增强,1996年之后,经济差异波动缩小,空间关联效应呈现波动式的增强和减弱;⑤ 云南沿边地区的三维插值结果均呈现出西北至东南一线的“洼地-丘陵-平地-高峰”地势变化格局,沿边地区的东南角地区即红河州的建水、个旧和开远等县市的GDP最高,“丘陵”地势主要集中在腾冲、保山市以及最南部的景洪地区,“洼地-平地”地势主要分布在沿边地区西北角的贡山和福贡等县域、西南角的西蒙和孟连等县及中部区域的绿春和江城县等地区。     

联合BDS/GPS的北斗广域差分实时电离层延迟格网改正方法研究

研究并实现中国区域北斗广域差分实时电离层延迟格网改正算法,针对北斗单系统实时建立电离层延迟格网的不足,提出联合BDS/GPS的北斗广域差分实时电离层延迟改正方法。比较BDS、GPS以及BDS/GPS观测的实时电离层延迟格网,并利用北斗单频单点伪距定位进行精度验证。结果表明,在有效格网点覆盖充足的地区,BDS与GPS实时电离层延迟格网定位效果相当;而联合BDS/GPS观测的实时电离层延迟格网极大提高了偏远地区的单频定位精度与可定位历元数,也使原本单系统格网覆盖充足的地区定位效果得到进一步增强和稳定。     

浙江省台州-昌化深部构造特征探测

采用高分辨折射和宽角反射/折射综合地震探测方法,在浙江省中部沿黄岩、临海、东阳、桐庐、昌化进行深部构造探测,获得一条长约350km的速度结构剖面。探测结果表明,地壳结构具有明显的多层性,存在3个速度间断面;基底速度结构图像揭示了速度结构的横向非均匀性,这种不均匀性既对应于地质构造单元的分界线或断裂构造带,也反映出东西部构造特征的差异性。     

GPS/PWV时间序列特征提取方法的研究

针对GAMIT/GLOBK软件解算得到的4 a GPS/PWV时间序列的特征提取问题,提出基于滤波辅助的部分集成经验模态分解（PEEMD）与Hilbert谱分析相结合的特征提取方法。首先,在PEEMD方法的基础上,结合滤波辅助的PEEMD方法与Hilbert谱分析,建立GPS/PWV时间序列特征提取模型;然后,将所提出的方法应用于TNML测站4 a的GPS/PWV长时间序列和7 d的GPS/PWV短时间序列分析中,并将滤波辅助的PEEMD结果与传统的小波分解结果进行对比。结果表明,该特征提取方法能准确有效地提取出 GPS/PWV时间序列中的周年周期和日周期特征分量,滤波辅助的PEEMD分解结果与小波分解结果一致,且提取的特征分量与原始信号更加吻合。     

日照豪迈码头港池布局对泥沙输移影响研究

港池的布局会改变其周边海域水动力条件及其泥沙冲淤状况,为了进一步了解其影响程度,本文以山东日照豪迈重工临港厂区运输码头的改造工程为研究对象,利用平面二维数值模型MIKE21/3 Integrated Models,建立了潮流和波浪耦合作用下的泥沙输移数值模型,对该工程附近海域进行了波浪、潮流和泥沙输移的数值模拟。同时采用实测数据对数值模型进行了验证,数值模拟结果与实测资料拟合较好,表明MIKE21能有效地模拟运输码头及其周围海域潮流的变化过程。以日照豪迈重工临港厂区运输码头为依托,基于数值模拟结果,分析不同改造方案下的水动力条件和泥沙冲淤状况。结果表明:港池布局对水动力条件影响甚微,对地形地貌冲淤影响较大;模拟结果确定港池南向开口为最佳改造方案,为工程的规划和设计提供科学依据。     

机载WIDAS数据的Landsat卫星反照率初步验证

随着精细化监测的需求,中高空间分辨率的地表反照率产品逐渐成为气候模型的主要输入。目前,中高空间分辨率反照率产品的验证主要基于地表站点的通量塔观测数据,区域机载飞行数据的验证依然相对较少。因此,本文基于区域机载数据验证Landsat反照率产品。针对内蒙古自治区根河森林试验区所获取的机载红外广角双模式成像仪(WIDAS)多角度反射率数据,应用BRDF原型反演算法估算其反照率,分析了应用机载数据验证中高空间分辨率反照率产品的潜力。2016年内蒙古根河森林试验区机载WIDAS飞行多角度观测的可用多角度范围为25°,以前的研究表明BRDF原型反照率反演算法表现出对小观测角度的反照率反演结果的鲁棒性。因此,机载WIDAS反照率在一定程度可用于星载反照率的验证。首先,基于核驱动模型和各向异性平整指数(AFX)提取了试验区4种MODIS二向性反射分布函数(BRDF)原型;然后,将其作为先验知识应用到根河森林WIDAS机载数据的反照率反演中;最后,用WIDAS反照率和单个地面通量塔观测的反照率对Landsat卫星数据的反照率进行初步验证。验证结果表明Landsat反照率与WIDAS反照率结果较为一致,但略有低估,总体均方根误差(RMSE)约为0.02,偏差为0.0057。在多角度观测范围较小时,BRDF原型的反照率反演算法可为星载地表反照率的验证提供了一种有效的验证手段。     

利用夜间灯光数据的城市群格局变化分析

针对传统的统计数据具有行政单元统计约束的缺点、DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据存在分辨率低、像元辐射值饱和的问题,该文使用NPP/VIIRS夜间灯光数据、城区边界、列车时刻表、百度地图API等数据,通过空间统计、标准差椭圆、位序-规模分布、空间联系测度研究中国九大城市群2012与2017年的空间格局变化。结果表明:长三角、珠三角、京津冀城市群的灯光总量和平均灯光均位于前列;长三角、珠三角、成渝、哈长、关中平原城市群灯光变分散,京津冀、长江中游、中原、北部湾城市群灯光变集中,成渝城市群夜间灯光重心移动最大,向重庆方向移动;长江中游城市群接近捷夫分布,中原城市群为序列分布,其他城市群为首位分布;长三角、珠三角、京津冀城市群的总体联系强度最高,各城市群边缘中小城市与核心城市空间联系较弱。