大气对外强迫低频遥响应的数值模拟 Ⅰ:对赤道东太平洋SSTA的响应

本文通过在IAP-GCM上实现的数值模拟,研究了大气对赤道东太平洋地区暖SSTA的响应,着重讨论了大气遥响应的性质和演变过程. 数值模拟清楚地表明,大气对异常外源的响应主要是一种具有30—60天周期的低频遥响应.分析不同地区和不同季节这种强迫响应的30—60天低频振荡的结构及活动,可以清楚看到它与大气中实际存在着的30—60天振荡极为相似.因此也可以认为,大气对海温异常的强迫遥响应是激发产生全球大气30—60天振荡的重要机制.     

印度洋—西太平洋对流涛动的季节内特征

本文利用30~60天带通滤波资料, 考察了不同季节印度洋—西太平洋区域对流活动季节内尺度变率的主要模态, 发现在不同季节赤道东印度洋(5°S~10°N, 70°E~100°E)和西北太平洋(5°N~20°N, 110°E~160°E)对流活动均存在反相变化的关系, 将之称为季节内尺度的印度洋—西太平洋对流涛动(Indo-West Pacific Convection Oscillation), 简称IPCO。对IPCO两极子区域对流活动进行超前滞后相关分析, 发现IPCO事件形成—发展—消亡的生命周期是由对流活动季节内振荡及其传播造成的。对流扰动首先在赤道中西印度洋形成, 随后逐渐向东发展变强, 在其继续变强的过程中将分两支传播:一支由赤道印度洋向北传播, 至印度半岛南部后逐渐减弱消失;另一支沿赤道继续东传, 在海洋大陆受到抑制, 快速越过海洋大陆到达赤道西太平洋后又开始发展变强, 随后北传至西北太平洋区域逐渐减弱, 最终至我国长江流域中下游到日本区域消失。将这一过程划分为8个位相, 详细分析了不同位相对应的环流场和降水场特征, 最后给出了IPCO事件演化示意图。     

北半球副热带—中纬度太平洋大气季节内扰动的纬向传播与东亚夏季旱涝

用时空滤波和Morlet小波方法,分析了1958—2000年夏季东亚(20°—45°N,110°—135°E)不同纬带(由南到北分为4个区域)的降水分别与太平洋同一纬带上大气30—60 d振荡(ISO)沿纬圈传播的关系及其成因机制。发现太平洋上经向风ISO向西传播的强或弱,是东亚夏季风区降水偏多或偏少的必要条件。对逐年夏季的分析表明,无论当年东亚夏季风强与否,在所划分的几个东亚季风区所有涝的年份里,太平洋同一纬带上大气ISO向西传播都明显较强,而在这些区域绝大多数旱的年份里,相应的ISO向西传播明显较弱。进一步分析发现,经向风ISO的纬向传播对应着大气经向型环流系统的移动,向西传影响东亚夏季风区降水的ISO有来自低纬中东太平洋东风流中的低频气旋(如副热带东风带中ISO的演变);也有来自中高纬度阿拉斯加湾及鄂霍次克海一带低频低压(如洋中槽)和高压(如阻塞高压和东北太平洋高压)的向南向西频散。因此东亚夏季旱涝不但与热带季风有关,而且与中东太平洋副热带东风系统中ISO的向西传播、中高纬度长波调整时低频扰动向西南经北太平洋副热带的传播密切相关。     

Nonlinear three- wave interaction among barotropic rossby waves in a large- scale forced barotropic flow

In this paper, the coupling equations describing nonlinear three-wave interaction among Rossby waves including the forcing of an external vorticity source are obtained. Under certain conditions, the coupling equations with a constant amplitude forcing, the stability analysis indi-cates that when the amplitude of the external forcing increases to a certain extent, a pitchfork bifurcation occurs. Also, it is shown from numerical results that the bifurcation can lead to chaotic behavior of “strange” attractor. For the obtained three-variable equation, when the amplitude of modulated external forcing gradually increases, a period-doubling bifurcation is found to lead to chaotic behavior. Thus, in a nonlinear three-wave coupling model in the large-scale forced barotropic atmospheric flow, chaotic behavior can be observed. This chaotic behavior can explain in part 30-60-day low-frequency oscillations observed in mid-high latitudes.     

干支60周期及可公度性与江苏—南黄海地区地震预测

根据１５００年以来的地震资料分析,江苏－南黄海地区Ｍ≥５中强震具有显著的干支６０周期性特征,南黄海海域Ｍ≥６强震具有良好的可公度性,并对其基本结构和预测功能进行了研究。未来几年该区依然存在５￣６级地震的危险性,第二活跃幕可能将持续到２００９年前后。     

甘肃省地矿局六十年地质工作综述 ——纪念甘肃省地矿局建局60周年

甘肃省地矿局建局60年来,先后完成了全省中小比例尺的区域地质矿产调查,发现并探明了资源储量世界排名第3的金川铜镍矿和白银铜矿、镜铁山铁矿、玛曲大水金矿、敦煌方山口钒矿、肃北塔尔沟钨矿、合作早子沟金矿、西和大桥金矿、肃南卡瓦铁矿、阿克塞余石山铌钽矿等为代表的大中型矿床180余处,发现各类矿产地875余处;完成了全省中小比例尺区域地质、水工环地质调查,评价了主要水源地和地质灾害的勘察;取得了一批地质科研成果,获得多项国家及省级科技成果奖励;为我国及甘肃省的经济社会发展做出了贡献。文章对甘肃省地矿局承担的基础地质调查、矿产地质勘查、水工环地质、地质科技等方面进行较系统、全面总结,对今后地质工作具有启示和借鉴意义。     

焦页60-5HF井钻井技术

焦页60-5HF井是处于焦石坝构造东南翼的一口页岩气水平井,该井设计井深5290 m,井斜69.30°,垂深3945.04 m,闭合位移2513.99 m。在实际施工中为确保水平段在储层中延伸,经多次调整后,最终完钻井深5235.00 m,井斜81.8°,垂深3820.56 m,水平位移2509.53 m,水平段长1775.00 m,为重庆涪陵工区垂深最深的一口水平井。实际施工中为保证井眼轨迹在储层中穿行,克服了井下工具抗高温、水平段摩阻大、定向托压、井眼轨迹防碰等诸多问题,成功完成了该井的施工任务,为该地区施工超深井提供了可借鉴的经验。     

南海地区大气30～60天低频振荡及其对南海夏季风的可能影响

本文利用1979～2008 年美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)和美国国家大气研究中心(NCAR)第二套再分析资料、美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)的向外长波辐射(OLR)资料及1979～2007年全球降水资料(CMAP), 分析了南海地区热带大气的低频振荡及其对南海夏季风的可能影响。结果表明, 夏半年南海地区存在显著的30～60天的周期振荡。当30～60天低频振荡处于活跃位相时, 南海及其周围地区的低层大气为低频西南风, 南海和菲律宾北部为低频气旋流场且为正的位涡度, 对应着增强的南海夏季风槽和南海夏季风; 当 30～60天低频振荡处于不活跃位相时, 情形正好相反。进一步的研究揭示出, 夏半年30～60天低频振荡变化的空间型与夏半年平均场的年际变化的空间分布非常相似, 并且南海及其附近地区的 30～60天低频振荡活动的年际变化对夏半年平均场的年际变化有显著的贡献。强、弱南海夏季风年30～60天低频振荡活动的比较也说明, 强的南海夏季风年30～60天低频振荡活跃状态发生的概率大于不活跃状态发生的概率, 而弱的南海夏季风年则是不活跃状态发生的概率大于活跃状态发生的概率。因此, 南海地区30～60天低频振荡对南海夏季风很可能有重要影响, 当30～60天低频振荡的活跃状态处于主导时, 南海夏季风往往会偏强; 反之, 如果不活跃状态处于主导时, 南海夏季风往往会偏弱。     

A study on response of precipitation in china to monsoon intraseasonal oscillation北大核心CSCD

Temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of the 30-60 day oscillation (intraseasonal oscillation, ISO) of summer rainfall in China and the effects of East Asian monsoon on the rainfall ISO are analyzed in this paper. Results show that the annual and decadal variations of the oscillation exist between 1960 and 2008, and the intensity is weakest in the late 1970s and early 1980s. In the typical strong years of the rainfall ISO obtained from empirical orthogonal functions (EOF mode 1), an anticyclone is in northwestern Pacific and a cyclone is in the east of China. In the typical weak years, the wind ISO is much weaker. The low-frequency zonal wind and water vapor transport from the low latitudes to mid-latitudes in the typical strong years, and the oscillation strength of diabatic heating is much stronger than that in the weak years of the rainfall ISO. The anomaly characteristics of the rainfall ISO show anti-phases between the Yangtze River basin and south of China. As for the typical strong years of the rainfall ISO in the Yangtze River basin (EOF mode 2), the main oscillation center of water vapor is in the east of China (20-30°N, 110-130°E). In the peak (break) phase of the rainfall oscillation, a low-frequency cyclone (anticyclone) is in the Yangtze River basin and an anticyclone (cyclone) is near Taiwan Island. In addition, the peak rainfall corresponds to the heat source in the Yangtze River basin and the heat sink in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. As for the typical strong years of the rainfall ISO in the south of China, the main oscillation center of water vapor is south of 20°N. In the peak (break) phase of the rainfall ISO, a low-frequency cyclone (anticyclone) is in the south of China and an anticyclone (cyclone) is in the Philippines. The peak rainfall corresponds to the heat source in the south of China and the South China Sea, and the heat sink in the west of Indochina.     

THE ROLE OF TROPICAL CONVECTION IN VARIATION OF INTRASEASONAL TELECONNECTIONS OF TROPICAL AND EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATIONS

Based on ECMWF objective analysis data, the relationships between tropical convective activi-ties and extratropical circulation, as well as the low frequency kinetic energy, have been investigat-ed by making use of diagnostic analysis methods on the intraseasonal time scale in winters of 1983/1984 and 1986/1987. From this study, it is found that the different intensities of the tropical con-vective activities may bring about both the different intraseasonal teleconnection wave trains be-tween the tropics and the extratropics and the different dispersions of the low frequency wave ener-gy. Moreover, the tropical convection can be an important junction factor for the teleconnection ef-fect of the tropical and extratropical circulations on the intraseasonal time scale.