Numerical Simulation of Long-Term Climate Change in East Asia

A 10-yr regional climate simulation was performed using the fifth-generation PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model Version 3 (MM5V3) driven by large-scale NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. Simulations of winter and summer mean regional climate features were examined against observations. The results showed that the model could well simulate the 10-yr winter and summer mean circulation, temperature, and moisture transport at middle and low levels. The simulated winter and summer mean sea level pressure agreed with the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data. The model could well simulate the distribution and intensity of winter mean precipitation rates as well as the distribution of summer mean precipitation rates, but it overestimated the summer mean precipitation over North China. The model's ability to simulate the regional climate change in winter was superior to that in summer. In addition, the model could simulate the inter-annual variation of seasonal precipitation and surface air temperature. Geopotential heights and temperature at middle and high levels between simulations and observations exhibited high anomaly correlation coefficients. The model also showed large variability to simulate the regional climate change associated with the El Nino events. The MM5V3 well simulated the anomalies of summer mean precipitation in 1992 and 1995, while it demonstrated much less ability to simulate that in 1998. Generally speaking, the MM5V3 is capable of simulating the regional climate change, and could be used for long-term regional climate simulation.     

THE TEST OF APPLYING RADAR TREC WIND IN THREE-DIMENSIONAL VARIATIONAL ASSIMILATION

1 INTRODUCTIONThat the radar data are reasonably ingested into theassimilation analysis system to improve the analysisquality and prediction precision is one of the problemsmeteorologists currently try to resolve. Many scholarshave already obtained some r…     

IMPACT OF THE INITIALIZATION ON MESOSCALE MODEL PREDICTION IN SOUTH CHINA

1 INTRODUCTIONThe initial state of the atmosphere is one of the keyfactors that affect the result of NWP. With thedevelopment of increasingly finer NWP, the quality ofinitial atmospheric state has been drawing more andmore attention[1-7]. GRAPES 3D- Var(G…     

多普勒天气雷达资料对中尺度模式短时预报的影响

利用中尺度模式ARPS(The Advanced Regional Prediction System)及其资料分析系统ADAS(ARPS Data Analysis System),将国内新一代多普勒雷达(CINRAD)反射率及径向风资料直接用于中尺度数值模拟,通过一次华北地区暴雨过程的模拟对比试验,分析了雷达资料对初始场的改进效果及其对模拟结果的影响,结果表明:(1)利用雷达径向风资料对初始风场进行调整后,自近地面到对流层顶的u,v,w都发生了变化,调整后的初始风场在对流层中层变化最大.(2)利用雷达反射率进行微物理调整和云分析能调整初始场中的云水信息,使得雷达回波附近3 km以下的水汽混合比(qv)增加,4 km以下的雨水混合比(qr)增加,对流层(约10 km以下)的云水混合比(qc)增加,4～9 km的对流层上部云冰混合比(qi)和雪混合比(qs)增加.ADAS通过非绝热初始化调整温度场,从而得到了一个动力和热力上平衡的初始场.(3)模拟的1 h雨量与实况的对比表明,同时利用雷达反射率和径向风改进过的初始场能明显增强3 h内的降水强度和落区预报,改善中尺度数值模式短时定量降水预报.模拟的1 h流场对比分析表明,经雷达径向风调整后,能够在初始场中增加气旋性涡旋等中小尺度风信息,明显减少模式的spin-up时间.(4)通过对雷达径向风和反射率对模式初始场和模拟结果影响的对比分析发现,雷达径向风主要是改进初始风场,而雷达反射率主要是改进初始场中的湿度参数,增加初始场中云水等的含量,调整温度场.通过模拟的6 h降水对比发现,利用雷达径向风调整初始场后,对降水模拟有一定的改进,但效果不甚明显,而雷达反射率资料对定量降水预报改进效果明显,同时使用雷达径向风和反射率资料改进初始场后对降水的模拟效果最明显.     

跨区域人工影响暴雨强度的数值模拟Ⅰ:条件分析及增雨模拟

利用IAP三维云模式对2005年7月一次强暴雨过程上游的水汽通量进行了人工影响试验．模拟和分析发现，AgI播撒速率的选择对增雨效果影响较大，仅当播撒速率在0．07g／s以下时才有增雨效果；过冷云水发展到极大值时，以0．05g／s播撒AgI获得的增雨效果最好，播撒过程使得自然云内的冰晶和雪晶出现的时间提前，含量明显增加。     

SCS+C地形辐射校正模型的应用分析研究

在对有森林覆盖的山区影像进行地形辐射校正时，基于太阳-冠层-传感器（SCS）几何关系的校正模型优于基于太阳-地形-传感器（STS）几何关系的模型。SCS校正模型解释了树木不依赖于地形、观测角和光照入射角而具有向地性生长的本质特性，但在某些地形区域，SCS与余弦校正同样存在过度校正的问题。为了解决这个问题，研究者在SCS校正模型中引入C校正系数来解释散射辐射项，提出了SCS+C校正模型。以北京密云Landsat 5影像为数据源，通过目视判别、直方图、定量的统计参数和地物光谱曲线对比等方法，对SCS+C校正模型与传统的余弦校正、C校正和SCS校正模型进行了对比。结果表明，4种方法均能在很大程度上消除地形阴影，更好地反映阴影区域的细节信息； 从总体的光谱特性保真程度来说，余弦和SCS校正都因过度校正问题表现较差，SCS+C校正最好，C校正次之。     

建筑物立面激光点云的定位

车载式近景目标3维测量系统,采用激光扫描仪获取建筑物立面点云。激光点云仅具有扫描仪坐标系下的坐标,不便于其他数据融合进行3维建模。文中根据系统的特点和要求,通过建立相应的坐标系,利用已有或优化的坐标转换模型确定坐标系之间的坐标转换关系。依据基准点与载体平台GPS接收机之间同步观测数据将激光点云在扫描仪坐标系下的坐标经过多次坐标转换,得到基准点所在当地坐标系下的坐标。使系统实现了满足精度要求的建筑物立面激光点云的定位工作。     

大港油田三维可视化解释技术的应用实例分析

三维可视化解释技术是一项全新的地震解释技术,与传统的地震资料解释有着本质的不同,它是从三维可视化显示出发,以地质体或三维研究区块为单元,采用点、线、面和体相结合的数据体空间可视化解释。该技术结合相干体技术可进行复杂断层的解释与组合;应用空间域层位自动追踪技术能够准确落实构造形态;采用目标雕刻技术,利用反演数据体可实现立体透视岩性体的空间展布及厚度趋势。将该技术应用在大港油田官西地区复杂断块构造解释和歧南西斜坡隐蔽油气藏储层预测两项实际工作中,取得了良好效果,表明可视化解释技术在石油勘探中具有广阔的应用前景,是提高勘探效率和勘探成功率的有效技术手段。     

EFFECT OF FLOW CONDITIONS ON 3D MOVEMENT CHARACTERISTICS OF PARTICLES

1 INTRODUCTION The mechanism of particle movement in the flow is one of basic problems of sediment transport research. The conventional measurement approaches usually disturb the structure of the flow, consequently inducing errors. With the development of…