Equilibrium trading of climate and weather risk and numerical simulation in a Markovian framework

We consider financial markets with agents exposed to external sources of risk caused, for example, by short-term climate events such as the South Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies widely known by the name El Nino. Since such risks cannot be hedged through investments on the capital market alone, we face a typical example of an incomplete financial market. In order to make this risk tradable, we use a financial market model in which an additional insurance asset provides another possibility of investment besides the usual capital market. Given one of the many possible market prices of risk, each agent can maximize his individual exponential utility from his income obtained from trading in the capital market, the additional security, and his risk-exposure function. Under the equilibrium market-clearing condition for the insurance security the market price of risk is uniquely determined by a backward stochastic differential equation. We translate these stochastic equations via the Feynman–Kac formalism into semi-linear parabolic partial differential equations. Numerical schemes are available by which these semilinear pde can be simulated. We choose two simple qualitatively interesting models to describe sea surface temperature, and with an ENSO risk exposed fisher and farmer and a climate risk neutral bank three model agents with simple risk exposure functions. By simulating the expected appreciation price of risk trading, the optimal utility of the agents as a function of temperature, and their optimal investment into the risk trading security we obtain first insight into the dynamics of such a market in simple situations.

新世纪构造地质学的纵深发展:深海、深部、深空、深时四领域成就及关键技术

近10年来,构造地质学面临前所未有的机会和巨大的发展前景,建立超越板块构造理论的时代已经来临,地幔柱理论与板块构造理论的融合必将为太阳系乃至宇宙形成的构造过程提供全新认识。文中从宏观角度,综述了当前深部、深海、深空和深时4个发展方向取得的成就,展望了这4个方面的未来发展趋势。同时,综合概述了推动近10年来构造地质学发展的4个关键技术:针对表面构造形迹的高精度激光高度计(深空星球表面成像)、高分辨率多波束(深海海底地形成像);针对深部构造形态的层析成像(tomography);针对动力学演化(深时)的各种模拟软件(ANSYS、COMSOL、FLAC等);针对物质材料流变学的高温高压实验和成分原位测试技术。     

十一运会开幕式消（减）雨作业数值模拟研究

利用中科院大气所开发并发展的三维对流云模式对十一届全运会开幕式当天影响山东的对流过程进行了数值模拟和过量催化试验。结果表明模拟自然云与观测事实吻合较好;设计96组催化方案对该个例进行消(减)雨模拟试验、催化试验表明,在模拟云3.5km高度的最大过冷水含量中心引入3600.0g碘化银催化剂,连续催化消(减)雨效果较好(地面降水总量减少97.5%),此次模拟对比分析了模拟自然云与催化云,从微观上探讨了消(减)雨的基本原理,模拟所用催化剂量、催化部位与当天山东人影办的作业实际基本一致,对指导实际作业有一定的参考价值。     

走向21世纪的矿床学

文章简要回顾了百年来矿床学取得的重要进展，包括：（1）矿床成因分类的建立；（2）层控矿床研究与矿床多成因理论的兴起；（3）板块构造与区域成矿规律；（4）矿床模型；(5)型矿床研究；（6）海洋现代热液成矿作用的发现；（7）成矿演化的不可逆性与节律性等。针对21世纪中人类社会可持续发展的需要，矿床学研究出现了两个新趋势；（1）全球化；（2）矿业开发与环境保护一体化。面临着三个主要研究领域；（1）成矿理论的推陈出新；（2）研究开发新型矿产资源，建立广义的矿产资源地质学；（3）建立绿色矿业体制所需的矿床学基础研究。     

甘肃马泉金矿二十号矿带地质特征

通过对二十号矿带与矿床主体三、四号矿带地质特征的对比和ZK4 0 1孔伴生元素特征的研究 ,认为二十号矿带是四号矿带东延部分 ,其露头位于矿体头部附近。预测在二十号矿带180 0m标高以下一定还有较大盲矿体存在。     

长江流域20cm蒸发皿蒸发量的时空变化

利用长江流域107个气象站1951-2000年的20cm口径蒸发皿逐日蒸发资料,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法和IDW反距离权重空间插值法分析了近50年来,尤其是20世纪90年代长江流域的年和季节蒸发皿蒸发量的时空变化.50年来,长江流域以年平均、夏季和秋季蒸发皿蒸发量显著下降为主要特点,尤以20世纪90年代最为显著,是年平均和夏季蒸发皿蒸发量最小的时期,比前0年平均值分别低-25.9mm和-36.1mm,这种趋势中下游地区比上游地区明显得多,尤其是在鄱阳湖流域.     

中国近半个世纪最高气温变化特征

本文根据中国164个站1951－1995年极端气温资料分析了中国各地区平均最高气温45年来的多年变化特征,指出中国北方趋势变化并不明显,80年代后期有明显上升,西南地区80年代后期急剧下降,长江流域以南6O年代降温后变化不大,青藏高原变化较小。冬季的多年变化也各不相同,有区域性差异。EOF分析表明中国各地大多数年份有相似变化趋势,也有一些年份长江流域以南与其它各地变化相反。     

第29届IASPEI大会岩石圈结构,动力学过程和各向异性专题概述

第２９届ＩＡＳＰＥＩ大会于１９９７年８月１８～２８日在希腊塞萨洛尼基举行,来自世界各地的约１０００名科学家出席了本届大会。该文较详细地介绍了本届大会中有关“岩石圈结构、动力学过程和各向异性”专题（Ｓ１１）的学术交流情况及各国学者在该专题的研究方面所取得的进展。     

Secularization in the Netherlands in its historical and geographical dimensions

The Netherlands is one of the most secularized countries in the western world. The aim of this paper is to put the secularization process in both historical and geographical perspective. As a mass process secularization started in the last quarter of the nineteenth century and accelerated from the sixties of this century onwards. The first concentrations of non-denominationalism could be found in the (Protestant) countryside of Friesland and Groningen as a consequence of profound social cleavages. Then, the big cities in the west took part in the process and more recently even the Catholic areas were affected due to the cultural revolution of the sixties and early seventies. Two counterforces were analysed: a religious revival within the Protestant community and the increasing proportion of Muslims and Hindus as a consequence of immigration and high fertility levels. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The intermediate-age brown dwarf LP 944-20

Observations are presented which show that Li  I  λ 6708 is detected with an equivalent width of 0.53 ± 0.05Å in the proper-motion object LP 944-20 (which is also known as BRI 0337-3535). Hα is detected in emission at an equivalent width of 1.2 ± 0.5Å. The detection of Li implies a mass less than 0.065 M⊙, making this object a brown dwarf. Moreover, the relative weakness of this Li detection (compared to the equivalent widths of 1–2Å seen in objects of similar spectral type in the Pleiades) implies that Li has been somewhat depleted. This, together with the precisely determined luminosity of LP 944-20, implies a mass between 0.056 and 0.064 M⊙, and age between 475 and 650 Myr. This makes it the first brown dwarf to have a well-constrained mass and age determined.