边界强迫场订正的区域气候模式对2013年夏季中国东部极端高温预测的改进试验

使用NCEP再分析资料对国家气候中心全球海气耦合模式BCC_CM1.0的多年平均场进行订正,然后嵌套区域气候模式RegCM3,建立基于边界强迫场订正的区域气候模式系统。使用该系统进行28年夏季回报及2013年夏季业务预测,并与直接使用BCC_CM1.0模式与RegCM3模式嵌套的模式系统进行对比。结果表明,引入边界强迫场订正技术后,区域气候模式系统对多年平均夏季气温、降水回报能力有了显著提高,且回报的高温界限值分布更接近于观测。除对2013年夏季东北地区气温距平预测效果变差外模式系统对于2013年中国东部中部地区夏季气温距平异常偏高、夏季高温日数异常偏多等观测事实的预测性能有显著提高。区域气候模式系统回报的多年平均夏季西太平洋副热带高压与观测更为接近是其对2013年夏季极端高温事件预测能力提高的关键所在。     

基于土地适宜性评价与元胞自动机模型的城市开发边界划定方法

城市开发边界的划定可以在一定程度上引导城市空间的良性扩张。为了研究边界划定的方法,以我国某港口城市作为研究区域,在空间增长模拟的方向进行探索。研究中借助土地适宜性评价和元胞自动机边界工具,构建既符合生态资源环境要求又符合城市发展需要的边界划定,同时,为了实现城市用地健康和动态管控举措,提出了建立健全土地用地管理机制的要求。     

尼日尔盆地油藏水道沉积构型识别及演化规律

深海水道作为深水环境中重要的储层类型,具有极为丰富的深海油气资源,近年来一直是深海油田勘探和开发的重点区域,但对水道内部构型边界的识别刻画仍然是一个难点。依据三维地震数据以及测井和岩心资料,对西非X油藏水道进行了内部构型边界的精细划分,并分析了其水道演化模式。研究表明：区内水道体系边界可通过地震相特征差异进行识别,并将其分为限制性、半限制性和非限制性3种类型;复合水道边界可通过“垂向分期”和“侧向划界”原则进行确定;单一水道边界可通过水道边界振幅强弱变化进行识别,其在平面上有单侧向迁移和沿下游摆动迁移2种迁移模式,在剖面上单向侧向迁移段水道呈侧向迁移的特征,沿下游摆动段呈现出多期水道相互摆动切叠的特征;水道体系的演化可划分为初始形成、快速发育、平稳发育以及水道消亡4个阶段,对应一个完整的海平面变化旋回。     

秦皇岛A油田河流相储层展布特征

秦皇岛A油田位于渤海中部海域,区内油气藏主要发育在新近系的明化镇组。明化镇组下段为曲流河沉积地层,具有很强的非均质性,使得注水开发收效不均匀,平面矛盾突出。选取Ⅲ2砂体为研究对象,利用40余口钻井资料和覆盖油田的三维地震资料对储层内部结构和平面展布特征进行了系统的分析。研究认为,Ⅲ2砂体是由两期点坝砂体叠置而成,每一期砂体在平面上由4~5个单一点坝顺向组合而成,点坝之间的溢岸沉积是导致储层非均质性强的主要因素,控制了剩余油的分布。油田的生产动态证实,注入水流动规律与点坝砂体的平面展布具有良好的对应关系,部分井区水驱效果不均衡,个别单井产能低下都能从中找到原因。     

基于含砾Folk三角形的底质范围分析

为解决面向航海应用的底质范围分布问题,提出了一种基于含砾Folk三角形的底质范围生成方法。该方法通过将海图底质注记转化为含砾Folk法底质类型,进而逆向利用Folk(G)三角形,将其拆解为各组分的比例,最后对海区内各组分单独插值并通过地图代数的方法整合各插值结果,生成底质的范围分布。对比实验表明其生成结果较传统的Voronio图法可更好地应用于舰船抛锚等应用场景。     

中国南海区1992-2012年的中尺度涡旋演化过程表达与统计分析

Automated identification and tracking of mesoscale ocean eddies has recently become one research hotspot in physical oceanography. Several methods have been developed and applied to survey the general kinetic and geometric characteristics of the ocean eddies in the South China Sea（SCS）. However, very few studies attempt to examine eddies＇ internal evolution processes. In this study, we reported a hybrid method to trace eddies＇ propagation in the SCS based on their internal structures, which are characterized by eddy centers, footprint borders, and composite borders. Eddy identification and tracking results were represented by a GIS-based spatiotemporal model. Information on instant states, dynamic evolution processes, and events of disappearance, reappearance, split, and mergence is stored in a GIS database. Results were validated by comparing against the ten Dongsha Cyclonic Eddies（DCEs） and the three long-lived anticyclonic eddies（ACEs） in the northern SCS, which were reported in previous literature. Our study confirmed the development of these eddies. Furthermore, we found more DCE-like and ACE-like eddies in these areas from 2005 to 2012 in our database. Spatial distribution analysis of disappearing, reappearing, splitting, and merging activities shows that eddies in the SCS tend to cluster to the northwest of Luzon Island, southwest of Luzon Strait, and around the marginal sea of Vietnam. Kuroshio intrusions and the complex sea floor topography in these areas are the possible factors that lead to these spatial clusters.     

中朝-扬子板块碰撞结合带东部边界及海域延伸

总结了中朝-扬子板块碰撞结合带的边界划分的各类观点,分析了存在争议的原因以及研究的不足之处。通过对苏鲁造山带及黄海海区的重磁资料、周缘断裂特征、典型地震剖面等最新研究成果的收集整理,研究认为华北扬子板块的碰撞结合带应为苏鲁超高压变质带-千里岩隆起,结合带在陆地的北边界可能为五莲-青岛-牟平断裂;南边界为连云港-黄梅断裂;千里岩南缘断裂在印支期是一条千里岩超高压变质带折返的边界断裂,白垩纪以来反转为一条控制南黄海北部坳陷的大型边界断裂,并指出加强黄海海域重磁震资料的精细研究及海陆结合带的构造关系研究是进一步研究重点。     

海泥环境中阴极保护的边界元计算

根据阴极保护的特点,建立了用于数值计算的模型;采用边界元方法对海泥介质中的阴极保护系统进行了计算,获得了海泥中钢管表面以及海泥介质内部的电位分布。将计算的结果与测量的数据进行比较,两者具有较好的一致性。     

利用Argo 浮标资料研究西北太平洋三维声速分布特征

利用西北太平洋海区2002～2009年的Argo浮标剖面温度、盐度资料构建成0.5°×0.5°水平分辨率的三维声速网格化资料,并据此分析该海区声速的空间分布及季节变化特征。研究表明：该海区10 m层等声速线分布的季节变化较为明显,春、冬季的等声速线几乎与纬线平行,黑潮流经区域等声速线呈现一定的弯曲。100 m层等声速线分布的季节变化较小：北赤道流区,等声速线从外海向近岸延伸;吕宋岛东南部沿海,等声速线向南弯曲;吕宋岛、台湾岛东部等声速线呈现偏北方向的弯曲;琉球群岛附近,等声速线朝北偏东方向弯曲。此外,研究海区存在深海声道,声道轴最深的区域主要在吕宋海峡和日本东南部海区,其中吕宋海峡处的声道轴有显著的季节变化特征。可见,利用Argo浮标资料可以初步得到西北太平洋声速的空间分布及其季节变化特征,随着Argo剖面资料的增多,对该海区的声速场认识将会愈加清晰。     

A preliminary study of variations of the Changjiang Diluted Water between August of 1999 and 2006

A large area hypoxia has been already reported respectively by two interdisciplinary surveys off the Changjiang Estuary since summer of 1999 and 2006. The hypoxic zone shows distinct year-to-year variations. Observed oceanographic data are first analysized and reveal a big difference for the Changjiang Diluted Water (CDW) between these two periods. These great changes are related to the tremendous reduction of the freshwater discharge and variations of wind fields between these two years. It is also found that the monthly mean intrusion of Kuroshio and its branches has increased in the northern East China Sea (ECS), but decreased in the southern ECS in August of 2006 as compared with 1999 on the base of general circulation models. Then, the Regional Ocean Modelling Systems is applied to the East China Sea to evaluate the contributions and relative importance of impacts from the river discharge, wind forcing and open boundary data. Our simulations reproduce the phenomena that more fresh water extends northeastward in 2006 and forms a negative SSS anomaly to the northeast of the river mouth as compared with 1999, which is consistent with observations. The five group numerical tests suggest that the wind forcing dominates the CDW variations followed by the Kuroshio and its branches. The study implies important roles played by hydrodynamic processes on the variability of hypoxic zone in the study areas.