基于R/S分析法的等维灰数递补动态GM(1,1)模型预测矿井涌水量

针对矿井涌水量时间序列的分形与灰色特征,采用重标极差分析法（R/S分析法）确定涌水量时间序列的Hurst指数和平均循环周期,在一个周期内建立等维灰数递补动态GM（1,1）预测模型。充分利用最新信息,提高模型预测精度。运用基于R/S分析法的GM（1,1）模型对陕北某矿矿井涌水量进行分析预测,结果表明,模型拟合程度好,预测精度高,能够为矿井安全生产提供决策依据。      

洛阳地区旋扩珠盘桩竖向承载力计算公式探讨

旋扩珠盘桩是在DX桩、挤扩支盘桩等基础上开发的一种新桩型,两者在外形和承载机制上存在一定的相似性。由于前者的珠盘由旋扩形成,对土体的挤压作用明显小于后者,因此,两者的承载性状存在差别。如果简单套用后者的公式计算前者的承载力,误差偏大,安全度难以保证,实践表明不可行。通过对洛阳一批工程50根旋扩珠盘桩试桩资料的分析,提出了洛阳地区旋扩珠盘桩承载力计算公式,可供工程应用时参考。     

预应力管桩单桩竖向极限承载力分析

通过天津地区几例预应力管桩的静载荷试桩结果 ,分析天津地区预应力管桩单桩竖向极限承载力标准值的估算及与《建筑桩基技术规范》(JGJ 94— 94)和天津市《岩土工程技术规范》(DB 2 9— 2 0— 2 0 0 0 )的差别     

δ13c-δ18O Covariance:An Effective Indicator of Hydrological Closure for Lakes?

The correlation between the Δ13c and 18O in primary carbonates is affected by several factors such as hydrological balance, total CO2 concentrations, climatic condition and lake productivity.The influence of these factors on the Δ13c-δ18 correlation may be different on different time scales. In this paper, two different-type lakes in southwestern China, Lake Erhal and Lake Chenghai, are selected to investigate the influence of climatic pattern on the Δ13c-Δ18o correlation and to evaluate the reliability of the Δ13c-Δ18o covariance as an indicator of hydrological closure. The results show that there exists good correlation between the Δ13c and Δ18o in Lake Erhai (overflowing open lake) and inLake Chenghal (closed lake). This suggests that the Δ13c-Δ18o covariance may be not an effective indicator of hydrological closure for lakes, especially on short time scales. On the one hand, a hydrologically open lake may display covariant Δ13c and δ18 as a result of climatic influence. The particular alternate warm-dry and cold-wet climatic pattern in southwestern China may be the principal cause of the Δ13c-δ18 covariance in Lake Erhai and Lake Chenghal. On the other hand, a hydrologically closed lake unnecessarily displays covariant trends between Δ13c and δ18 because of the buffering effect of high CO2 concentration on the Δ13c shift in hyper-alkaline lakes. We should be the buffering feeect of high CO2 concentration on the 13Cshift in hyper-alkaline lakes.We should be prudent when we use the covariance between 13C and 18O to judge the hydrological closure of lake.     

Co‐seismic Faults and Geological Hazards and Incidence of Active Fault of Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake,Sichuan, China

Abstract: There are two co-seismic faults which developed when the Wenchuan earthquake happened. One occurred along the active fault zone in the central Longmen Mts. and the other in the front of Longmen Mts. The length of which is more than 270 km and about 80 km respectively. The co-seismic fault shows a reverse flexure belt with strike of N45°–60°E in the ground, which caused uplift at its northwest side and subsidence at the southeast. The fault face dips to the northwest with a dip angle ranging from 50° to 60°. The vertical offset of the co-seismic fault ranges 2.5–3.0 m along the Yingxiu-Beichuan co-seismic fault, and 1.5–1.1 m along the Doujiangyan-Hanwang fault. Movement of the co-seismic fault presents obvious segmented features along the active fault zone in central Longmen Mts. For instance, in the section from Yingxiu to Leigu town, thrust without evident slip occurred; while from Beichuan to Qingchuan, thrust and dextral strike-slip take place. Main movement along the front Longmen Mts. shows thrust without slip and segmented features. The area of earthquake intensity more than IX degree and the distribution of secondary geological hazards occurred along the hanging wall of co-seismic faults, and were consistent with the area of aftershock, and its width is less than 40km from co-seismic faults in the hanging wall. The secondary geological hazards, collapses, landslides, debris flows et al., concentrated in the hanging wall of co-seismic fault within 0–20 km from co-seismic fault.     

CO_2 Density-Raman Shift Relation Derived from Synthetic Inclusions in Fused Silica Capillaries and Its Application

Abstract: The densities of CO2 inclusions in minerals are commonly used to determine the crystallizing conditions of the host minerals. However, conventional microthermometry is difficult to apply for inclusions of small size (< 5–10 μm) or low density. Raman analysis is an alternative method for determining CO2 density, provided that the CO2 density–Raman shift relation is known. This study aims to establish this CO2 density–Raman shift relation by using CO2 inclusions synthesized in fused silica capillaries. By using this newly-developed synthetic technique, we formed pure CO2 inclusions, and their densities were determined by microthermometry. The Raman analysis showed that the relation between CO2 density (D in g/cm3) and the separations (Δ in cm?1) between the two main bands (i.e. Fermi diad bands) in CO2 Raman spectra can be represented by a cubic equation: D (g/cm3)=0.74203(?0.019Δ3+5.90332Δ2?610.79472Δ+21050.30165)?3.54278 (r2=0.99920). Our calculated D value for a given Δ is between those obtained from two previously-reported equations, which were derived from different experimental methods. An example was given in this study to demonstrate that the densities of natural CO2 inclusions that could not be derived from microthermometry could be determined by using our method.     

Characterization of an Area Polluted by Copper and Zinc:the Relation between Soil Texture,Mineralogy and Pollutant Concentration

Abstract: Twenty-four soil samples were collected at three depths from an approximately 2.5 acre contaminated site in southern Piedmont (Italy) and then analyzed. The main soil parameters determined were: pH, Cation Exchange Capacity (CEC), particle size distribution, total organic carbon (TOC) content and retained metal concentration. The mineral phases were identified by X-Ray Powder Diffraction (XRPD). All of the samples contained Zn and Cu resulting from industrial contamination during the last century, and those obtained at depths of 20-40 cm consistently showed the highest levels. To determine which size fraction was most active in the retention process, the samples were separated into four fractions (≤2 mm, ≤63 μm, ≤30 μm and ≤2 μm) and the amount of pollutant measured in each. It was found that metal retention was the highest in the clayey fraction, whose clay minerals were identified by XRPD after K+ and Mg2+ saturation, glycerol treatment and heating to 550°C. The clayey fraction was also the richest in TOC, and a direct correlation between TOC amount and metal retention was observed.     

近30年巢湖流域土地利用变化及其驱动力研究

土地利用与覆被变化（LUCC）是全球变化的重要内容和主要表现之一,LUCC研究已成为全球变化研究的前沿和热点问题。基于多时相的TM影像数据,从流域尺度研究了巢湖流域的土地利用变化,分析探讨了土地利用变化的社会经济驱动力。研究结果表明,1979～2008年间巢湖流域的土地利用发生了比较明显的变化,主要表现在耕地锐减和建设用地激增;经济发展、城镇化、工业化、人口增加是造成巢湖流域土地利用变化的主要驱动力。     

塔里木盆地塔中孤立台地北缘上奥陶统良里塔格组精细沉积建模

通过对大量露头和岩心资料的分析,塔中孤立台地北缘上奥陶统良里塔格组识别出滩、障积礁、灰泥丘、藻席、潮下低能带五种沉积微相。并按照沉积能量由高到低的顺序,建立起高频沉积组合,它们分别是:滩—礁组合、滩—礁—丘组合、滩—丘组合、粒屑滩组合、滩—席组合、丘—席组合、藻席组合、低能带—藻席组合,进而在层序格架内分析了这八种高频沉积组合在时空上的演化规律。在此基础上,结合地震资料以及前人研究成果,将该区精细刻画为四种加积型镶边台地沉积模式:1）断控型窄陡镶边台地,以塔中261井区为代表;2）断控型宽陡镶边台地,以塔中62井区为代表;3)沉积型宽陡镶边台地,以塔中82井区为代表;4)沉积型宽缓镶边台地,以塔中45井区为代表。断控型的台地边缘能量相对较高,有利于礁滩体的发育,沉积型台地边缘能量相对较低,礁滩体欠发育。这四种模式的建立为该区下一步的储层预测和油气藏开发提供了有价值的参考。     

基于MEM1谱分析的水文时间序列隐含周期特性研究

水文时间序列的隐含周期(本文将简单周期、复合周期及近似周期等统称为隐含周期)的识别、判定是一个重要而又较为困难的问题,相对成熟和有效的做法是对其进行频谱分析。建立在最大熵原理(POME)基础之上的MEM1谱分析,克服了传统谱分析方法的诸多不足,具有频谱光滑、分辨率高等独特优势。为此,以黄河花园口(秦厂)测站年径流系列、月径流系列和年最大洪峰流量序列隐含周期特性的研究为例,探讨了MEM1谱分析在水文时间序列隐含周期特性中的应用。