辽东湾海洋工程可靠性设计的海冰参数选取

海冰参数的合理取值是海洋工程海冰灾害风险评估的重要内容。利用1950—2018年的冰情等级(5个等级)数据,进行了1950—2018、1950—1990、1991—2018三种情景下的回归分析,确定了不同时期的冰情等级概率分布密度函数。利用鲅鱼圈雷达观测站2002—2017年的海冰现场实测资料,分别对鲅鱼圈附近海域一般冰厚、最大冰厚、最小冰厚进行概率分布拟合。基于上述概率分布结果,给出不同冰情等级的重现期,进而对海冰作业条件给出的设计参考值进行评价。结果表明:1990年以后2级、3级冰情重现期相对1990年之前变小,4级、5级冰情重现期相对1990年之前变大,规范给出重现期范围已不能代表辽东湾冬季海冰情况。本研究成果可为辽东湾海洋工程可靠性设计提供重要数据支撑。     

陶瓷材料地磁场古强度研究的可靠性探索

目前来自以烧制陶瓷为主的考古磁学古强度数据存在较大的离散度,且缺少验证性的实验研究,制约了对人类历史时期地磁场强度变化的认识.本文以现代烧制的陶片为材料,采用了目前国际上接受程度最高的双加热方法测量其古强度,并进行了岩石磁学实验.结果显示,仅一个样品所测得的地磁场强度与参考值相符(测量值46.4±3.7μT,参考值48.2μT).两个样品古强度数据虽然通过了各项可靠性检验,但最终结果存在约20%的偏差(测量值38.6±3.8μT、43.5±4.1μT,参考值50.4μT),岩石磁学实验结果显示其载磁能力在加热前后发生了明显变化.因此,对于陶瓷样品,pTRM系列各项检验并不能完好地验证其载磁能力是否发生了改变;岩石磁学实验应该作为其古强度研究的第一步筛选条件.     

Helmert方差分量估计在GPS/GLONASS/BDS组合定位权比确定中的应用

因GNSS系统间观测噪声、轨道精度的差异,采用经验权比进行组合定位难以得到最优结果。基于此,在GPS/GLONASS/BDS组合定位中引入Helmert方差分量估计,对GPS/GLONASS/BDS组合单点定位和基线解算中各系统观测值进行合理定权。实验表明,采用该方法确定的伪距观测值最佳权比为5∶1∶1,相位观测值最佳权比为1∶1∶1,有效提高了GPS/GLONASS/BDS组合定位的精度和可靠性。     

Study of Partial Coefficients for Design of Semicircular Breakwaters

In the present study,the reliability design of semicircular breakwater is based on the verification of the rules defined by standard specifications,where partial coefficients are introduced to ensure safety.The reliability of the semicircular breakwaters has been analyzed by using the Hasofer-Lind method to determine the reliability index of structure that has correlated loads,utilizing the long-term observed wave data at a given place.The relation curve between reliability index and safety factor in the traditional design method,as well as the relationships between reliability index and partial coefficients,have been obtained.This paper proposes values of partial coefficients for the design expression of semicircular breakwaters in the cases of anti-sliding and anti-overturning.     

基于谱分析LNG船典型热点疲劳可靠性分析

研究LNG船在疲劳载荷作用下应力热点的疲劳可靠性。通过整船有限元分析得到不同浪向角规则波中各热点的应力频响函数,用谱分析法确定各热应力点在各短期海况下的应力范围模型,进而通过长期预报,用Weibull分布对各热点应力范围分布模型进行拟合并探讨热点型式和受载特性对参数变化的影响。基于线性累积损伤理论,利用S-N曲线计算各热点的疲劳累积损伤值并建立极限状态方程,评估LNG船舯部典型热点的疲劳可靠性和结构的疲劳安全性。针对不同热点讨论了应力范围长期分布函数—Weibull分布参数的取值对典型热点可靠性指标的影响,并给出典型热点目标可靠性指标和长期应力范围极值之间的关系以用于指导设计和安全性评价。     

Minimal cut-based recursive decomposition algorithm for seismic reliability evaluation of lifeline networks

In this paper, a new probabilistic analytical approach, the minimal cut-based recursive decomposition algorithm (MCRDA), is presented to evaluate the seismic reliability of large-scale lifeline systems. Based on the minimal cut searching algorithm, the approach calculates the disjoint minimal cuts one by one using the basic procedure of the recursive decomposition method. At the same time, the process obtains the disjoint minimal paths of the system. In order to improve the computation efficiency, probabilistic inequality is used to calculate a solution that satisfies the prescribed error bound. A series of case studies show that MCRDA converges rapidly when the edges of the systems have low reliabilities. Therefore, the approach can be used to evaluate large-scale lifeline systems subjected to strong seismic wave excitation.     

Application of saddlepoint approximation in reliability analysis of dynamic systems

The application of the saddlepoint approximation to reliability analysis of dynamic systems is investigated. The failure event in reliability problems is formulated as the exceedance of a single performance variable over a prescribed threshold level. The saddlepoint approximation technique provides a choice to estimate the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the performance variable. The failure probability is obtained as the value of the complement CDF at a specif ied threshold. The method requires computing the saddlepoint from a simple algebraic equation that depends on the cumulant generating function (CGF) of the performance variable. A method for calculating the saddlepoint using random samples of the performance variable is presented. The applicable region of the saddlepoint approximation is discussed in detail. A 10-story shear building model with white noise excitation illustrates the accuracy and effi ciency of the proposed methodology.     

输水管网模糊地震可靠性的 Monte Carlo 法分析程序

本文详细介绍了笔者所建议的运用模糊图理论和方法进行城市输水管网的地震可靠性分析途径和计算程序。对于输水管网中每段管道的震害预测,建立了相应的专家系统。在此基础上,定义了管网系统的模糊可靠性,更好地反映了人们对于管道损坏状态估计的模糊性和对可靠性要求上的模糊性。以模糊矩阵来描述输水管网的状态是十分方便的。通过计算模糊矩阵的传递闭包,极易找出最短路、关键段等。由于地震作用和管道抗震能力都是随机的,因此整个管网系统的可靠性分析是藉助Monle Carlo法进行的。以Monle Carlo法对模糊图进行分析,从而得到管网的地震可靠性,这还是首次。用PASCAL和PROLOG编制了在微机上实用的计算机程序,特别是以智能语言PROLOG编制的程序,更有许多特色。由于采用了一些技巧,使在微机上可以分析相当大的系统,为城市抗震防灾工作提供了一个有力的工具。