Comparisons of several evaporation/precipitation datasets for the Bohai Sea based on salinity simulation

Evaporation (E) rate and precipitation (P) rate are two significant meteorological elements required in the ocean baroclinic modeling as external forcings. However, there are some uncertainties in the currently used E/P rates datasets, especially in terms of the data quality. In this study, we collected E/P rates data from ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, HOAPS for the Bohai Sea and nine routine stations around Laizhou Bay, and made comparisons among them. It was found that the differences in E/P rates between land and sea are remarkable, which was due to the difference in underlying surfaces. Therefore, the traditional way of using E/P rates acquired on land directly at sea is not correct. Since no final conclusion has been reached concerning the net water transport between the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea, it is unfeasible to judge the adequacy of the four kinds of data by using the water budget equation. However, the E/P rates at ERA-40 sea points were considered to be the optimal in terms of temporal/spatial coverage and resolution for the hindcast of salinity variation in the Bohai Sea. Besides, using the 3-D hydrodynamic model HAMSOM (HAMburg Shelf Ocean Model), we performed numerical experiments with different E/P datasets and found that the E/P rates at sea points from ERA-40 dataset are better than those from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis dataset. If NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis E/P rates are to be used, they need to be adjusted and tested prior to simulation so that more close-to-reality salinity values can be reproduced.     

基于有限元的混凝土衬砌渠道冻胀性能研究

提高渠道衬砌工程质量水平,需要对混凝土衬砌渠道冻胀特性及影响因素进行研究。按照大U形混凝土衬砌渠道断面,利用FEA有限元数学近似分析法,对渠道冻胀特性进行瞬态数值模拟。模拟结果表明：各监测点在冻胀过程中相对外部冻胀量、法向冻胀力、以及切向冻胀力均存在一定的滞后现象,与工程实际中大 U形混凝土衬砌渠道冻胀实际特性相符。 FEA有限元数学近似分析法能够准确模拟渠道冻胀特性,为工程研究提供了一种新的计算机模拟仿真思路。     

利用GPU实现基于物理模型的流体运动仿真

纳维-斯托克斯方程是描述流体运动的基础物理模型。首先简要介绍了在计算机上实现该模型的数值解算方法。在流体运动的计算机视觉仿真中,密度渲染才是最终结果,因此,又阐述了流体的密度场与速度场的关系,并且给出了流体仿真的基本流程。由于可编程图形处理器(GPU)具有并行性和速度快等特点,流体模拟的解算和渲染在图形处理器上运行更加高效,但是利用GPU编程实现流体仿真必须要实现3个核心转换,最后以支持3维纹理的Direct3D10为例,给出了利用GPU实现流体运动仿真两个简单实例。     

GALILEO系统仿真与分析

本文着重阐述了GALILEO仿真系统星座和误差模型的构建过程,利用该系统进行DOP值分析并通过定位解算验证了GALILEO系统的性能指标。通过与GPS系统性能指标进行比较,得出GALILEO系统的星座设计具有较好的DOP值分布特性,定位精度优于GPS定位精度。在进行差分定位时,其误差贡献比较大的是接收机噪声和卫星钟差,因此提高差分定位的关键是降低接收机的噪声水平和提高卫星钟差预报精度。     

The Mesoscale Predictability of a Heavy Precipitation Event

Using the mesoscale model MM5, the development of initial condition uncertainties at different scales and amplitudes and their influences on the mesoscale predictability of the ＂0185＂ Shanghai heavy precipitation event are investigated. It is found that different initial conditions obtained from different globe model analyses lead to large variations in the simulated location and strength of the heavy precipitation, and the scales and amplitudes of the initial condition perturbations significantly influence the model error growth. The power spectrum evolution of the difference total energy （DTE） between a control simulation and a sensitivity experiment indicates that the error growth saturates after 12 h, which is the predictable time limit of the heavy precipitation event. The power spectrum evolution of the accumulated precipitation difference between the control and sensitivity simulations suggests a loss of the mesoscale predictability for precipitation systems of scales smaller than 300 kin, i.e., the predictable space for the heavy precipitation event is beyond 300 km. The results also show that the initial uncertainties at larger scales and amplitudes generally result in larger forecast divergence than the uncertainties at smaller scales and amplitudes. The predictable forecasting time and space can be expanded （e.g., from 12 to 15 h, and from beyond 300 kin to beyond 200 km） under properly prescribed initial perturbations at smaller scales and amplitudes.     

张掖市可持续发展系统动力学模拟分析

基于可持续发展理论,依据系统动力学(System Dynamics,SD)原理方法,选取张掖市人口、经济、土地和水资源系统,利用SD软件Stella9.02构建张掖市SD模型.利用1990—2005年的历史数据验证模型的有效性,模拟2005—2020年间张掖市可能的社会发展模式.结果表明:在自然发展模式和经济快速发展模式下,到2020年张掖市总人口达到135.04×104人,人均GDP分别为2.57×104元和3.05×104元.两种模式中,地区产业结构严重失衡,用水总量都超过地区实际分水量;而协调发展模式下,到2020年总人口为130.11×104人,人均GDP为2.71×104元,用水总量为22.2×108 m3.相比于自然发展模式和经济快速发展模式,协调发展模式既可保证地区经济的快速发展,合理调整产业结构和用水结构,又能保护地区生态环境,是地区可持续发展的优先选择.     

计算机仿真模型的灵敏度分析

计算机仿真模型的灵敏度分析，是仿真建模中的重要研究内容，对实际系统的建立和优化具有重要意义。本文主要研究了在用蒙特卡洛方法仿真随机系统时，其仿真模型（输出）的灵敏度（导数、梯度、Ｈｅｓｓｉａｎ矩阵等），对系统性能函数和灵敏度的参数估计进行了探讨，并结合实际应用系统，对结论进行了分析比较。     

匹配层高频宽带水声换能器研究

为了获取更多的水下信息,提高声呐的探测和识别能力,设计高频宽带换能器是极为重要的。 匹配层技术是拓宽换能器带宽的有效方式。从理论上对匹配层拓宽换能器带宽的机理进行了分析,并利用数值计算和有限元仿真分析了匹配层对换能器性能的影响。结果表明：随着匹配层层数增加,换能器的谐振峰数目增加,峰与峰之间通过耦合能够实现拓宽带宽的效果。通过有限元仿真指导制成中心频率为 187.5 kHz 的双匹配层宽带换能器,其最大发送电压响应为 150.3 dB,–3 dB 带宽为 145 kHz。     

强台风下导管架平台倒塌全过程数值仿真

针对强台风引起的平台倒塌问题,综合隐式有限元与显式动力有限元算法,建立导管架平台结构倒塌全过程仿真流程;提出基于重现期的Pushover分析方法,充分考虑平台侧向环境载荷分布的变化以及可能的甲板上浪载荷因素,使得确定的倒塌环境载荷更加真实;采用APDL编制平台隐式与显式有限元模型转化程序,有效解决波浪载荷计算与精确施加的难题;在此基础上,应用LS-DYNA实现导管架平台在强台风载荷下的倒塌全过程仿真,动态再现平台结构倒塌过程中的构件破坏失效及内力分布,深入揭示平台结构的倒塌机理。研究成果可为导管架平台结构抗台风设计及理论研究提供参考。