RELATION BETWEEN δ~（18）O IN ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION

ＲＥＬＡＴＩＯＮＢＥＴＷＥＥＮδ~（１８）ＯＩＮＡＴＭＯＳＰＨＥＲＩＣＰＲＥＣＩＰＩＴＡＴＩＯＮＡＮＤＴＥＭＰＥＲＡＴＵＲＥＡＮＤＰＲＥＣＩＰＩＴＡＴＩＯＮＺｈａｎｇＸｉｎｐｉｎｇ（章新平）（ＤｅｐａｒｔｍｅｎｔｏｆＧｅｏｇｒａｐｈｙ，ＨｕｎａｎＮｏ?..     

滇东北地区地质灾害及其对公路工程影响研究——以某拟建公路沿线地质灾害为例

以滇东北地区某拟建公路沿线的地质灾害为例 ,分析研究该地区地质灾害的影响因素、影响机制、分布规律以及对公路工程的影响。区内地质灾害的发育受地层岩性、岩体结构、地质构造、地震、水文条件、气候条件、人类活动等因素的控制和影响。地质灾害类型主要有崩滑塌、滑坡、泥石流、岩溶塌陷等 ,另外还存在软土、膨胀土及可液化的砂土等特殊岩土灾害。不同类型的灾害对公路工程的影响和破坏机制不同     

Spatial Autocorrelation and Localization of Urban Development

A nonlinear analysis of urban evolution is made by using of spatial autocorrelation theory. A first-order nonlinear autoregression model based on Clark’s negative exponential model is proposed to show urban population density. The new method and model are applied to Hangzhou City, China, as an example. The average distance of population activities, the auto-correlation coefficient of urban population density, and the auto-regressive function values all show trends of gradual increase from 1964 to 2000, but there always is a sharp first-order cutoff in the partial auto- correlations. These results indicate that urban development is a process of localization. The discovery of urban locality is significant to improve the cellular-automata-based urban simulation of modeling spatial complexity.     

地理学的逻辑方法和基本法则

从科学哲学和科学学的角度考察地理学思想史,可以发现:地理学之所以徘徊于科学性不强的“经验科学”的水平,关键在于其科学的理论化和系统化不够。本文对地理学的逻辑方法及其公理系统作了初步探讨,并尝试就此推演地理定理,估计地理学的未来发展趋势。     

东川泥石流站开放以来的回顾与展望

本文扼要介绍了中国科学院东川泥石流观测研究站对外开放三年来,在泥石流观测试验研究和防灾减灾工作中的新进展,同时也简述了站设基金课题、国家基金课题和中外合作交流项目的进展情况,并对今后的观测研究工作提出了展望和建议。     

用天文方法建立商后期甲骨文年代序列的新途径—解析殷历月法

利用对具有月龄特征的历谱规律的研究成果，以推定甲骨文的绝对年代，从而提供了建立商后期甲骨文年代序列的新方法，并给出了13版卜辞的例证，通过分析殷历月的结构，得出殷历中“二癸月”和“四癸月”的月首分别为首甲日和首癸日，初步归纳出殷历月法，月首为初三，月长等于逆望月周期，建立固定，且找到建立丑之例，置闰规律未知，已存在年终，年中置闰两种闰法。     

Us public and private regulation of LNG transport

The authors examine the propositions that the private banking sector is capable of assuring that liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects are economically viable and that the insurance sector is capable of rating the relative risks of LNG projects to assure their operations are as safe as possible. If the markets could assure these outcomes, government regulation of LNG projects could be reduced. Reviews of public and private regulation of safety and economic viability suggest that the private sector cannot serve these functions adequately. Unless private financial and insurance enterprises are induced by government regulations to smooth their own operating cycles, private self-regulation of major new developments is unlikely to be effective. In the case of LNG, the red tape of governmental bureaucracy may have prevented the large-scale development of costly, potentially hazardous, white elephants, but for all the wrong reasons.     

Probabilistic seismic response and reliability assessment of isolated bridges

Bridge seismic isolation strategy is based on the reduction of shear forces transmitted from the superstructure to the piers by two means: shifting natural period and earthquake input energy reduction by dissipation concentrated in protection devices. In this paper, a stochastic analysis of a simple isolated bridge model for different bridge and device parameters is conducted to assess the efficiency of this seismic protection strategy. To achieve this aim, a simple nonlinear softening constitutive law is adopted to model a wide range of isolation devices, characterized by only three essential mechanical parameters. As a consequence of the random nature of seismic motion, a probabilistic analysis is carried out and the time modulated Kanai-Tajimi stochastic process is adopted to represent the seismic action. The response covariance in the state space is obtained by solving the Lyapunov equation for a stochastic linearized system. After a sensitivity analysis, the failure probability referred to extreme displacement and the mean value of dissipated energy are assessed by using the introduced stochastic indices of seismic bridge protection efficiency. A parametric analysis for protective devices with different mechanical parameters is developed for a proper selection of parameters of isolation devices under different situations.     

An integrated linear/non-linear flow model for the conduit-fissure-pore media in the karst triple void aquifer system

Most karstic aquifer media may be characterized as the triple-void media with highly-varied hydraulic properties, including matrix pore, fissure and conduit, in which liner flow may co-exist with non-linear flow. In this paper, an attempt is made to couple linear flow with non-linear flow in a single unified flow governing equations by introducing the concept of equivalent hydraulic conductivity (EHC) and deriving a general Darcys law for various flow. The expression of EHC in the karst conduit and fissure are also derived. The procedures of numerical implementation are demonstrated via an ideal model and a case study of karst aquifer system in the Beishan Ore Formation area, Guangxi Autonomous Region, China.     

极不充分采动条件下地表下沉规律及计算方法研究

随着煤矿开采的不断加深,地表呆动程度(开采宽度D与开采深度H之比DIH)不断降低,并逐渐趋向于极不充分采动,同样长度的工作面对地表的影响程度极不同于浅部开采。因此,需要重新认识深部开采时的地表下沉规律。极不充分采动条件下地表下沉规律具有特殊性。经过对国内外大量观测资料的综合分析,发现当开采宽度小于地表下沉起动距时(极不充分采动),地表的下沉或地表下沉率(q′／q)为零。当开采宽度达到地表移动起动距时,地表下沉缓慢增长;达到临界采动距时,地表下沉急剧增大。地表下沉率(q′／q)与开采宽、深比D／H之间为负指数函数关系。在极不充分采动条件下进行地表下沉预计时必须对概率积分法的下沉系数进行修正。算例证明了本文给出计算方法的可行性。但这种修正方法如何与概率积分法相统一仍需进一步研究。