关于"一致"地震动衰减规律的探讨

以我国中南地区烈度资料为例,用卡方正交回归烈度和震级的联合椭圆衰减模型,研究了烈度和震级相互转换的一致性问题,给出适合该地区的“一致”地震动衰减关系,并与常规方法得到的最小二乘结果进行比较,结果较为合理。该方法也可用于预测不同地区其它地震动参数衰减关系。     

中国岩金矿床品位-吨位模型研究

矿床品位-吨位模型研究属于学科前沿领域, 它是系统勘查理论的重要组成部分.依据1997年全国矿产储量数据库资料, 对全国680个岩金矿床建立了地质模型、品位模型、吨位模型、吨-品位联合模型, 以及中国石英脉型金矿床吨位序列模型.模型类型包括频率直方图、累积频率分布图及双对数坐标表示的理论分布模型.分别总结了我国岩金矿床的品位及吨位分布的典型数学地质特征, 并探讨了吨位序列模型在资源预测评价中的意义和作用.      

高寒区抽水融冰渠道水温沿程衰减规律——以红山嘴水电站为例

抽水融冰技术是解决高寒区引水式电站冬季运行冰害问题的有效措施之一。为研究抽水融冰对电站引水渠道冬季引水的水温控制规律,以红山嘴水电站为例,基于RNG κ-ε模型数值模拟研究结果,从热流量比角度探讨了渠道水温沿程衰减规律,并采用2013年2月和2014年1月原型观测结果进行了验证。结果表明:渠道水温沿程衰减过程可分为骤降段、过渡段和缓降段3部分,各段范围受外界条件控制;衰减曲线呈幂函数分布,相关系数达到98%;对比气温对渠温沿程衰减的影响表明,随着大气温度的降低,渠道水温沿程衰减速度明显加快;-10 ℃为水温衰减过程变化转折点,当气温高于-10 ℃时,可以近似认为渠温衰减规律一致,渠温沿程变化主要受到热流量比值影响;低于-10 ℃时,气温对渠道水温沿程变化影响显著。     

作为CAS的复杂城市地理系统的SOC性质

将城市作为复杂适应性系统(CAS)研究其自组织临界性(SOC)具有重要的理论意义和实践价值,这方面的探索工作刚刚开始。本文从城市的地理空间角度出发,论证城市是一种复杂适应性系统。城市在本质上是不可还原的,我们可以根据积木的机制将城市分解,但分解的结果对解释城市的复杂行为丝毫没有帮助。由于城市和城市体系都具有分形结构、服从Z ipf定律,且具有1/f噪声的特征,由此判断城市地理系统具有自组织临界性质。自组织临界性与复杂性适应性立论的视角不同,但可以统一于“混沌的边缘”这一概念。     

Horizontal rough fracture type curves for groundwater movement

Abstract

Type curves are derived analytically for radial flow in rough horizontal fractures toward a well. The basic assumptions are that there is no turbulent flow near the borehole and the well storage is ignored. The basis of the methodology is to write explicit expressions for the continuity and cubic law flow equations, which are combined using a Boltzmann transformation leading to a simple ordinary differential equation for groundwater movement. Solutions are presented as a set of type curves for different fracture apertures. It is observed that the solutions provide a method of uniquely identifying fracture hydraulic parameters when the fracture is smooth, but pose ambiguity for rough fracture parameter estimations. However, large time portions of these type curves appear as straight lines on semi-logarithmic paper, which provides a unique way for rough fracture parameter determination. Identification of the fracture parameters, namely, the aperture and relative roughness, is possible in a unique manner with the use of these lines and the dimensionless time drawdown concept. The cubic law is the asymptotic behaviour, either for large times or large fracture apertures. Prior to this asymptotic part, there is a non-cubic portion which gives rise to systematic deviations from the cubic law. The technique presented is useful, especially for evaluating pumping tests from a single major fracture isolated by packers.     

不同温度条件下乙酸对长石溶蚀过程的实验研究

本文报道了不同埋藏温压条件下乙酸对条纹长石溶蚀过程的实验研究。结果证明:１）在条纹长石溶蚀过程中，Ｋ、Ｎａ、Ａｌ优先释放，Ｓｉ是最后释放的元素。２）在相对低温的条件下，长石溶出主要元素的比例远远偏离其化学组成，在相对高温的条件下，则接近其化学组成。３）在条纹长石中.钠长石比钾长石更容易分解。４）温度升高对条纹长石中Ｓｉ的影响最大，其温度效应分别是Ｋ、Ａｌ、Ｎａ的９.２，８.６和５.４倍。５）不同温度区间Ｓｉ，Ａｌ的温度效应存在显著的差别，Ａｌ主要在小于９５℃区间释放，而Ｓｉ主要在大于９５℃区间释放，此时将有约２/３的Ｓｉ不能加入到高岭石中。因而在埋藏成岩过程中，自生ＳｉＯ_２矿物沉淀造成的孔隙封堵作用主要发生在地温大于９５℃的埋深中。６）相对高温高压的实验中获得了蛋白石等自生ＳｉＯ_２矿物的沉淀，进一步证明Ｓｉ主要是在高温区间释放的。     

辽西黄土陡坡的冲刷破坏机制

以70°辽西黄土陡坡为例,在降雨强度为2.7 mm/min条件下对边坡坡面冲刷破坏特征进行了室内物理试验模拟。试验发现：随着降雨的持续坡面水流能量不断增加,致使侵蚀强度增强;边坡的侵蚀方式从试验初期的片蚀,到中期的细沟侵蚀,最后演化为坡顶部的切沟侵蚀和坍塌。基于试验成果,采用SEEP/W程序对降雨条件下边坡降雨入渗规律进行数值模拟,发现在降雨过程中坡顶部所产生的水头压力最大,随高度降低呈减小趋势;运用PFC2D颗粒流软件从微观角度对坡体土颗粒运动情况进行模拟,结果发现位于坡顶的颗粒最先被径流冲刷带走,且下落速度很快。经对比表明：数值模拟结果和物理模拟试验现象基本一致,可为进一步研究黄土边坡冲刷破坏规律提供参考。     

磁单极、麦克斯韦方程组与电磁图象

本文从真空中磁的库仑定律和电的安培环路定律推导出磁单极存在下麦克斯韦方程组的微分形式,描绘出磁单极存在下的电磁图象。     

Turbidite bed thickness distributions: methods and pitfalls of analysis and modelling

Turbidite bed thickness distributions are often interpreted in terms of power laws, even when there are significant departures from a single straight line on a log–log exceedence probability plot. Alternatively, these distributions have been described by a lognormal mixture model. Statistical methods used to analyse and distinguish the two models (power law and lognormal mixture) are presented here. In addition, the shortcomings of some frequently applied techniques are discussed, using a new data set from the Tarcău Sandstone of the East Carpathians, Romania, and published data from the Marnoso‐Arenacea Formation of Italy. Log–log exceedence plots and least squares fitting by themselves are inappropriate tools for the analysis of bed thickness distributions; they must be accompanied by the assessment of other types of diagrams (cumulative probability, histogram of log‐transformed values, q–q plots) and the use of a measure of goodness‐of‐fit other than R², such as the chi‐square or the Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistics. When interpreting data that do not follow a single straight line on a log–log exceedence plot, it is important to take into account that ‘segmented’ power laws are not simple mixtures of power law populations with arbitrary parameters. Although a simple model of flow confinement does result in segmented plots at the centre of a basin, the segmented shape of the exceedence curve breaks down as the sampling location moves away from the basin centre. The lognormal mixture model is a sedimentologically intuitive alternative to the power law distribution. The expectation–maximization algorithm can be used to estimate the parameters and thus to model lognormal bed thickness mixtures. Taking into account these observations, the bed thickness data from the Tarcău Sandstone are best described by a lognormal mixture model with two components. Compared with the Marnoso‐Arenacea Formation, in which bed thicknesses of thin beds have a larger variability than thicknesses of the thicker beds, the thinner‐bedded population of the Tarcău Sandstone has a lower variability than the thicker‐bedded population. Such differences might reflect contrasting depositional settings, such as the difference between channel levées and basin plains.     

Early Estimation of Seismic Hazard for Strong Earthquakes in Taiwan

A shakemap system providing rapid estimates of strong ground shaking could be useful for emergency response providers in a damaging earthquake. A hybrid procedure, which combines site-dependent ground motion prediction models and the limited observations of the Real-Time Digital stream output system (RTD system operated by Central Weather Bureau, CWB), was set up to provide a high-resolution shakemap in a near-real-time manner after damaging earthquakes in Taiwan. One of the main factors that affect the result of ground motion prediction analysis is the existence of site effects. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the local site effects and their influence in the ground shaking and then establish an early estimation procedure of potential hazard for damaging earthquakes. Based on the attenuation law, the site effects of each TSMIP station are discussed in terms of a bias function that is site and intensity-level dependent function. The standard deviation of the site-dependent ground motion prediction model can be significantly reduced. The nonlinear behavior of ground soil is automatically taken into account in the intensity-level dependent bias function. Both the PGA and the spectral acceleration are studied in this study. Based on the RTD data, event correctors are calculated and applied to precisely estimate the shakemap of damaging earthquakes for emergency response.