Prediction of sediment yield by coupling Kalman filter with instantaneous unit sediment graph

An instantaneous unit sediment graph (IUSG) model in conjunction with Kalman filter was investigated for prediction of sediment yield from an upland watershed in Northwestern Mississippi. The state vector of the watershed sediment yield system was constituted by the IUSG and then the sediment yield was estimated by the IUSG model using Kalman filter. The initial values of the state vector were assumed as the average of the IUSG values and the initial sediment yield estimated from the average IUSG. The IUSG model using Kalman filter with a recursive algorithm accurately predicted sediment yield from watershed W‐5, Mississippi. The filter allowed the IUSG to vary in time, increased the accuracy of the IUSG model, and reduced physical uncertainty of the sediment yield process in the watershed. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

气候变暖有益于中国的社会和谐

中国传统农业的产量受气候控制,气候表现为冷暖和干湿交替的循环,因此农业产量也出现循环演变的规律,在冷期中生活资源的短缺所造成的生存压力,加剧了矛盾,促进了战争。而气候变暖可以缓解这些矛盾,因此,气候变暖有益于中国的社会和谐。     

Magnitude and variation in the contribution of bank erosion to the suspended sediment load of the River Severn,UK

The wide range of studies describing the role of bank erosion in fluvial sediment supply have mostly lumped amounts of bank erosion into coarse temporal units, such as years. This paper investigates sediment yields from individual bank erosion events within the upper River Severn, UK (basin area 380 km²). Manual erosion pins and photo-electronic erosion pins were used to estimate bank erosion, and turbidity meters were used to determine suspended sediment transport. At the annual time-scale, the silt-clay fraction of bank-derived sediment accounted for an equivalent of 17 per cent of the suspended load, increasing to an average of 38 per cent at the monthly timescale, and then to an average of 64 per cent at the event timescale. This research highlighted that for an upland catchment, bank erosion was an important supply of suspended sediment, and that for some flood events bank erosion can supply more sediment than is transported. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

钢筋混凝土框架结构直接基于位移的抗震设计

直接基于位移的抗震设计方法是对基于力的抗震设计方法的重大改进。按此方法进行设计时,需要解决的关键问题是确定结构的目标位移和相应的侧移模式。提出用框架梁节点截面屈服时的位移作为目标位移,并推导了层间屈服位移的计算公式;然后用结构近似的第一振型曲线作勾其侧移模式,对层间屈服位移进行修正。算例表明,本方法计算结果合理。     

人类活动和降水变化对嘉陵江流域侵蚀产沙的影响

基于大量实测资料,用经验统计方法研究了人类活动和降水变化对嘉陵江流域侵蚀产沙的影响。结果表明,水利水保措施和20世纪80年代以来的降水减少,共同导致了嘉陵江流域产沙量的减少。分基准期(1956~1982)和措施期(1983~2000)分别建立嘉陵江江流域产沙量与年降水的指数方程,运用这些方程对于降水变化与水利水保导致的产沙量变化进行定量区分,得到了措施期中降水量减小所导致的减沙量、水利水保措施导致的减沙量、总减沙量以及降水减少和水利水保措施各自占总减沙量的百分比。水保减沙效益随降水量的增大而减小。当降水量超过某一临界值,还可能出现负效应。研究表明,水利水保减沙量随年降水量而增大,在年降水量为970mm时达到最大值,然后减小;当年降水量为1180mm时,水利水保减沙量变为0。     

沙漠沟谷暴雨洪水侵蚀产沙特征

在半干旱区的季节性沙漠沟谷,暴雨引发的洪水过程侵蚀产沙强度大,水土流失严重,对区域及下游河道生态造成严重威胁。以毛布拉孔兑的支沟苏达尔沟为研究对象,以苏达尔沟2011—2015年6次暴雨洪水事件的观测数据为基础,分析洪水流量、泥沙浓度及地表沉积物粒度特征,给出暴雨洪水侵蚀产沙输沙特征。结果表明:观测期间暴雨洪水侵蚀产沙量平均每次约37.69×10~4t,产沙模数为0.57×10~4t·km^-2;其中最大的洪水事件130721号暴雨洪水过程侵蚀产沙量高达90.47×10~4t,产沙模数达1.36×10~4t·km^-2。流域总侵蚀产沙以0.25～0.063 mm泥沙为主,约占总侵蚀量74%。洪水总侵蚀产沙量随暴雨产流强度增强而增加,同时下游沙漠沙地段产沙贡献比重也随之增加,风沙贡献也相应增大。坡面侵蚀约占暴雨洪水总侵蚀的4.37%,且主要集中在上游砒砂岩坡面。     

中国粮食生产时空演变规律与耕地可持续利用研究

随着全球粮食贸易格局的日益紧张,如何利用有限的耕地资源保证中国粮食安全成为新阶段的难题。本文从耕地可持续利用视角提出粮食稳产、增产策略,以期为粮食安全、耕地保护等国家战略提供理论支撑。基于1985—2015年中国31个省（自治区、直辖市）统计数据,以农业生态区为基本单元,采用比较分析法和GIS空间分析法,对中国粮食生产时空演变及其影响因素进行规律性探究。研究结果表明：（1）中国粮食产量呈“波动-上升”的趋势,但长江中下游区、江南和华南区粮食增长率较低,甚至出现减产现象。（2）中国粮食产量主产区逐渐由长江中下游区、江南和华南区向东北区、黄淮海区转移。（3）中国粮食生产的影响因素呈现阶段性和区域性规律。例如,东北区、西北区粮食生产主要受粮食单产、耕地面积等影响;黄淮海区、内蒙古高原和黄土高原区、云贵高原和横断山区主要受粮食单产影响。（4）中国各区耕地存在不同类型和不同程度的耕地非持续问题,在西北区、内蒙古高原和黄土高原等生态脆弱区域较严重。     

凡纳滨对虾(Litopenaeus vannamei)形态性状与净肉重和出肉率的关系

为了探究凡纳滨对虾(Litopenaeus vannamei)表型性状与净肉重、出肉率的关系,本研究以5月龄的650尾凡纳滨对虾为材料,测量了全长、体长、头胸甲和各体节的长宽高等24个表型性状,根据体重、净肉重计算出肉率,通过相关分析、逐步回归分析和通径分析,计算了各性状间的相关系数、通径系数和决定系数,分析了24个表型性状与净肉重和出肉率的关系。结果表明,相关系数均达到极显著水平(P0.01);通过逐步回归分析建立了以净肉重为因变量,13个性状为自变量的回归方程;同时建立了以出肉率为因变量,9个性状为自变量的回归方程。通径分析结果显示,体长对净肉重的直接影响最大,其次是第3腹节长和第1腹节宽;对出肉率的正向直接影响最大的是体长,其次是第2腹节高和第3腹节长,头胸甲长、宽、高以及尾节长与出肉率呈明显负相关。决定系数分析结果与通径分析结论基本一致,在所分析的24个形态性状中,体长和第3腹节长与净肉重和出肉率密切相关。在实际生产中,可以通过测量体长和第3腹节长等形态性状间接实现对净肉重、出肉率的选择,选育优良品种。     

Data-moderate assessments of Cape monkfish Lophius vomerinus and west coast sole Austroglossus microlepis in Namibian waters

There is global interest in providing scientific advice on optimal harvesting of all commercially exploited fish stocks. Nevertheless, many commercially important stocks lack analytical assessments. Therefore, we evaluate a data-moderate stock assessment method: the stochastic surplus production model in continuous time (SPiCT). The method was applied to two Namibian stocks: (i) the data-rich Cape monkfish Lophius vomerinus, where results are compared to a new data-rich assessment using a state–space assessment model (SAM); and (ii) the data-moderate west coast sole Austroglossus microlepis, which is an important bycatch species in the Cape monkfish fishery, but currently unassessed. The information available to the data-moderate assessment is total commercial catch, commercial catch per unit effort (CPUE), and survey CPUE. SPiCT and SAM gave largely consistent estimates of relative fishing mortality (F/F_MSY) and relative exploitable biomass (B/B_MSY) for the Cape monkfish stock, although with some discrepancies. Differences in the biomass estimates between the two assessments suggest that further investigation is required to understand the cause, and that some caution is necessary when considering the biomass of the stock. SPiCT shows that the west coast sole may be overexploited, although the confidence bounds were too wide for a firm conclusion. Similarity in the estimates of F/F_MSY for Cape monkfish in recent years, using SPiCT relative to SAM, likewise indicates the suitability of SPiCT for managing west coast sole.