一个波浪破碎散射模型的改进

为了得到与实测数据更为一致的散射模型,对KHCC03散射模型进行了改进.研究了考虑波浪破碎影响的KHCC03散射模型的适用范围.研究结果表明,KHCC03散射模型在入射角为25°～40°范围内,模型结果与实测数据吻合较好,在入射角小于25°和入射角大于40°的情况下,模型结果与实测数据差异较大.针对这一问题,对KHCC03模型进行了改进,结果表明:与原KHCC03模型相比,改进后的模型结果与实测数据吻合程度明显提高.     

THE ANALYSIS ON THE STATISTICAL CHARACTER OF QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER WINDS AND STRONG WIND FREQUENCY USING REMOTE SENSOR DATA FROM QUIKSCAT

1 INTRODUCTION Most of the conventional sea surface wind data are measurements from ships, buoys and islands, with coverage and spatial resolution far below the requirements of research and application. At present, due to limited understanding of physical processes and efficient exploitation of data, numerical prediction models have not been used as they should be, although routine procedures are able to give sea surface wind fields at the intervals of 6 hours. With the development of sp…     

北京“623”大暴雨的强降水超级单体特征和成因研究

本文利用雷达、加密地面自动站等高时空分辨率的观测资料,结合NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料、常规观测等资料,对2011年6月23日发生在北京城区的极端强降水事件开展了细致的观测和诊断分析。结果表明,这次极端强降水事件,主要是由向东南移动的东北—西南走向的飑线右端的强降水超级单体（High Precipitation Supercell,简称HPS）造成的,这是目前已有文献记载的中国发生纬度最高的HPS。HPS在移动方向的右后侧和右前侧均有明显的“V”型入流,这不同于已有HPS模型,表明中、低层干冷空气和低层暖湿气流特征显著。在环境条件方面,存在对流层低层逆温层,其能量存储盖作用使得雷暴具有爆发性增强的潜势,但该逆温层是在08:00～14:00（北京时,下同）的6小时内形成的,对业务预报极具挑战性。相对其他大气层结热动力参数, 风暴相对螺旋度和粗理查逊数在14:00较08:00显著增大,对HPS的发生具有一定指示作用。高空偏西风急流和低层偏东风活动显著,使得北京地区的水平风垂直切变增强,形成上干下湿的对流不稳定以及次级环流圈。高空急流造成强烈的相当位温差动平流,促进对流不稳定度发展加强。结合复杂地形作用,在北京西部100 m地形高度线附近形成显著的平原暖湿空气与山地干冷空气的干湿分界线以及风场辐合线。水汽供应主要源自低层偏东风和本地水汽积累。当飑线从西北方向侵入北京并向东南方向移动时,在北部山区,由于条件不足,雷暴没有显著发展加强;然而,在西部山区,在湖面、城市热岛、低层偏东风、冷池出流共同作用下,加之其他有利的环境条件,飑线右端雷暴强烈发展加强,特别是当经过100 m地形高度线附近时发展成为HPS,进而造成石景山区模式口站的大暴雨中心。     

Performance of the CMA-GD Model in Predicting Wind Speed at Wind Farms in Hubei, China

This study assesses the predictive capabilities of the CMA-GD model for wind speed prediction in two wind farms located in Hubei Province, China. The observed wind speeds at the height of 70m in wind turbines of two wind farms in Suizhou serve as the actual observation data for comparison and testing. At the same time, the wind speed predicted by the EC model is also included for comparative analysis. The results indicate that the CMA-GD model performs better than the EC model in Wind Farm A. Th...     

Non-linear spherical Alfvén waves

We present a one-dimensional numerical study of Alfvén waves propagating along a radial magnetic field. Neglecting losses, any spherical Alfvén wave, no matter how small its initial amplitude is, becomes non-linear at sufficiently large radii. From previous simulations of Alfvén waves in plane-parallel atmospheres we expected the waves to steepen and produce current sheets in the non-linear regime, which was confirmed by our new calculations. On the other hand we found that even the least non-linear waves were damped out almost completely before 10 R_⊙. A damping of that kind is required by models of Alfvén wave driven winds from old low-mass stars as these winds are mainly accelerated within a few stellar radii.     

激波在磁盔－电流片位场中的传播：（Ⅰ）激波与磁盔间的相互作用

利用新近获得的子午面磁盔－电流片背景太阳风稳态解,对激波从盔底沿电流片方向往外传播时与磁盔间的相互作用进行了数值模拟研究,重要新结果是：１．磁盔的存在使受扰介质速度跃变中央出现下凹,随着激波传出磁盔区并沿电流片方向传播,速度下凹逐渐减弱以致消失;２．激波将磁盔拉长并把盔顶的环形（垂直赤道面）磁场带到行星际空间,成为行星际磁场南向分量的来源之一;３．５个太阳半径（Ｒ⊙）内的磁盔部分将出现精细结构,沿盔外边界形成两条高速带,以及马蹄形密度（亮）环形结构等．这些结果表明,太阳附近高速等离子体与磁盔间存在重要的动力学相互作用过程,对行星际空间的太阳风三维结构有重要影响．     

长江中下游旱涝中期预报方法及其业务应用

介绍了双层多因子综合相似的长江中下游旱涝中期预报模型。该模型引入了具有明确动力学和热力学意义的地转西风动量经向输送和经向温度梯度诊断量，同时强调了西太平洋副热带高压对长江中下游夏季降水的关键作用，并考虑了对流层中、低层500hPa高度和850hPa温度的大尺度环流背景场。与过去业务应用的单层相似预报模型相比较，不仅物理意义和天气学含义明确，而且更符合对具有复杂动力和热力机制的降水预报的考虑。5年的预报试验和业务应用结果表明，该方法对长江中下游地区旱涝的中期趋势预报有较好的预报能力。     

对流移入杭州湾后飑线发展机制分析

利用多源观测资料,对2021年4月30日发生在黄淮地区的一次强对流过程中由不同类型风暴系统造成的极端对流大风进行了探讨。研究表明,此次强对流过程发生在东北冷涡背景下的强风垂直切变和层结不稳定环境中,地面气旋及锋面触发了初始对流,在之后近10 h的传播过程中经历了组织化发展、孤立风暴新生、发展、合并与重组等不同阶段。期间,由两种不同类型风暴产生了特征相异的对流性大风：第一阶段,以江苏淮安站为代表,苏中极端对流性大风（36.2 m/s）是由发展强烈的超级单体风暴引发下击暴流所致。对流风暴低层呈现出明显的钩状回波特征,对应深厚的具有显著气旋性旋转的中气旋,在地面极端大风临近时刻,中气旋存在同时向上和向下拉伸、水平尺度快速收缩过程。贯穿整个风暴的下沉气流位于风暴钩状回波后侧,这支强下沉气流至地面附近迅速向外辐散,伴随风暴内强反射率核快速下降,导致淮安产生时、空尺度小且空间分布显著不连续的极端大风。第二阶段,以江苏南通地区为代表,苏东南地区极端大风的发展过程涉及多尺度天气系统的相互作用。线状对流系统前部存在明显的阵风锋,造成较大范围10级以上的地面大风;南通通州湾极端大风（47.9 m/s）发生在阵风锋后侧,其形成一方面是由于线形对流风暴造成的强冷池与地面冷锋相叠加,形成更强的气压梯度,另一方面与地面中尺度气旋入海过程中的快速发展以及风暴后侧倾斜向前的下沉气流导致的高空风动量下传有关。     

Progressive Transformation of a Flux Rope to an ICME

The solar wind conditions at one astronomical unit (AU) can be strongly disturbed by interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). A subset, called magnetic clouds (MCs), is formed by twisted flux ropes that transport an important amount of magnetic flux and helicity, which is released in CMEs. At 1 AU from the Sun, the magnetic structure of MCs is generally modeled by neglecting their expansion during the spacecraft crossing. However, in some cases, MCs present a significant expansion. We present here an analysis of the huge and significantly expanding MC observed by the Wind spacecraft during 9 – 10 November 2004. This MC was embedded in an ICME. After determining an approximate orientation for the flux rope using the minimum variance method, we obtain a precise orientation of the cloud axis by relating its front and rear magnetic discontinuities using a direct method. This method takes into account the conservation of the azimuthal magnetic flux between the inbound and outbound branches and is valid for a finite impact parameter (i.e., not necessarily a small distance between the spacecraft trajectory and the cloud axis). The MC is also studied using dynamic models with isotropic expansion. We have found (6.2±1.5)×10²⁰ Mx for the axial flux and (78±18)×10²⁰ Mx for the azimuthal flux. Moreover, using the direct method, we find that the ICME is formed by a flux rope (MC) followed by an extended coherent magnetic region. These observations are interpreted by considering the existence of a previously larger flux rope, which partially reconnected with its environment in the front. We estimate that the reconnection process started close to the Sun. These findings imply that the ejected flux rope is progressively peeled by reconnection and transformed to the observed ICME (with a remnant flux rope in the front part).     

反射率因子和径向速度共同约束反演多普勒雷达风场

多普勒雷达可以提供降水回波区的风场信息。为了充分运用雷达资料分析中小尺度天气过程,本文假设反射率因子在短时间内的运动满足拉格朗日守恒,提出了采用连续两次的反射率因子回波和径向速度数据共同约束的方法来反演风场,在反演过程中避免了对径向速度的分布进行假设。针对连续两个时次之间反射率回波运动中产生的不同程度的误差做了模拟风场试验,结果表明,当回波运动随机误差不超过40%时,反演结果较为可靠。另外,本文还利用此风场反演方法进行两次中尺度天气过程的实例分析。结果表明,该方法反演的风场与实际风场结构相符,具有一定的应用价值。