Predictability of Interannual Variability in the Kuroshio Transport South of Japan Based on Wind Stress Data over the North Pacific

It is expected that a roughly two-year forecast of the Kuroshio transport variation can be made from a past record of wind stress data over the ocean, since it takes nearly ten years for the first-mode baroclinic Rossby wave to traverse the entire basin in the midlatitude North Pacific (∼30°N). We therefore investigated the predictability using an ocean general circulation model driven by the wind stress data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. Referring to a hindcast experiment as the control run, we carried out fifteen forecast experiments, the initial conditions of which are taken from the hindcast experiment at intervals of two years during the period from the end of 1969 to the end of 1997. Each of the forecast experiments is driven only by wind stress in the year preceding each experiment. The forecasted Kuroshio transport anomaly south of Japan agrees better with the hindcasted one during the first two years of the forecast in most cases. In some cases, however, significant disagreements occur, most of which are likely due to larger unpredictable variations caused by wind stress anomalies near Japan. At the end of forecast year 2, the anomaly correlation coefficient is about 0.7, and rms of the forecast error is smaller than rms of the hindcasted anomaly. These results indicate that the prediction of the interannual variability in the Kuroshio transport could be made two years in advance at a statistically significant level. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

一种计算台风风场的方法

揭示Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡风场模式和Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ风场模式之间的联系，并设计了一种台风风场分布模式，它的风速分布曲线落在Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ和Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡两个风场模式的风速分布曲线之间，具有一个既优于Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ又优于Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡的风速衰减速率，因此它同时克服了Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡模式计算风速偏小和Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ模式计算风速偏大的缺点，以一种比较合理的变化趋势向远方衰减，成为一个比较切合实际的台风风场分布模式。同时，文中提出的移行台风风场计算方法对宫崎正卫、上野武夫和Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ模式都有一定的改进。     

东海区近海强风预报模式

本文探讨东海区近海强风预报模式，首先介绍建立预报模式的思路和步骤，及使用说明，为了验证强风预报模式和判别条件，用１９８６、１９８７上日本传真天气图进行试报，准确和基本准确度为９１．１％，并给出了１９８９、１９９５年随船试验预报结果，准确和基本准确率为９０％以上。     

南麂站定常波风浪波高与风速的经验关系

本文以南麂海洋站１９８３～１９９０年风、浪的实测资料为依据，建立了南麂海城春、夏、秋、冬季定常波风浪波高与风速的经验关系式。检验结果表明，曲线回归显著，计算值与实测值吻合良好。文中还对偏ＮＮＥ向和偏ＳＳＷ向计算波高随风速增大的快慢，同一方向在同一风速作用下计算波高的季节变化及其机理作了初浅的讨论。     

机载雷达高度计对海况及海面风速的测量研究

运用我国自行研制的ＺＨＧ－１型Ｘ波段机载雷达高度计于１９９５年４月１３日－４月１８日在青岛附近海域进行的海上飞行实验数据，及导出的均方根波高、有效波高、均方根波陡算法模型，得到了上述海况参数值。     

Influence of Wind on Dynamics and Flushing of Shallow Estuaries

Observations of two small estuaries in Cape Cod, U.S.A. indicate large variations in salinity structure that are forced by variations in along-estuary wind stress. During onshore winds, the estuarine circulation is reduced, and the along-estuary salinity gradient increases as freshwater accumulates. During offshore winds, the surface outflow is enhanced, freshwater is flushed out of the estuary, and the along-estuary salinity gradient becomes weak. Constrictions block the wind-induced flushing, resulting in strong salinity fronts across the constrictions. The residence time of one of the estuaries varies by more than a factor of three in response to variations in wind-induced flushing. The other estuary has little variation of flushing associated with winds, due to a constriction at the mouth that inhibits the wind-induced exchange. The strong influence of winds on the flushing of these estuaries is due in part to their shallow depths, which accentuates the influence of wind stress relative to the effects of the horizontal density gradient. In addition, the residence times of the estuaries are comparable to the time scale of wind forcing, allowing large changes in water properties during wind events.     

周期浅析

本文分析了滑动平均的数据处理方法对周期分析结果产生的影响。提出了过程变量同号积分的数据处理方法,并对亚洲西风指数序列进行了试验分析。分析结果表明,周期的长短与振幅的大小有密切关系,亚洲逐日西风指数的周期振荡具有明显的季节特征。     

Coastal Upwelling Activity on the Pacific Shelf of the Baja California Peninsula

High primary productivity on the Pacific coast of the Baja California Peninsula is usually related to coastal upwelling activity that injects nutrients into the euphotic zone in response to prevailing longshore winds (from the northwest to north). The upwelling process has maximum intensity from April to June, with the coastal upwelling index varying from 50 to 300 m³/s per 100 m of coastline. Along the entire coast of the peninsula, the upwelling intensity changes in accordance with local wind conditions and bottom topography. Spatial variability can also be modulated by the influence of mesoscale meanders of the California Current. We have identified the seasonal and synoptic variability of upwelling signatures on the Baja California shelf, using averaged monthly and weekly sea surface temperature (SST) distributions obtained from remote sensing imagery from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer in the period from 1996 to 2001. Analysis of SST distribution and direct experimental data on temperature and nutrient concentration shows that the areas with the coldest SST anomalies were closely related to the bottom slope, shelf width, and coastline orientation relating to wind direction. We also assume that the nutrient transport into the coastal lagoons may be forced by the coupling of coastal upwelling and tidal pumping of surface waters into the lagoon system. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Decadal Variability of Subsurface Temperature in the Central North Pacific

Decadal variability of subsurface temperature in the North Pacific has been investigated. Two dominant regions were found; the central subarctic region (CSa) and the north-eastern subtropical region (NESt). In CSa, cooling (warming) of wintertime subsurface temperature corresponds to the large (small) temperature gradient and southward (northward) shift of subsurface temperature front, associated with the increase (decrease) of positive wind stress curl and the southward (northward) shift of curl τ zero line with 2 years delay. It is suggested that the relocation of subtropical-subarctic boundary plays an important role. In NESt, importance of heat flux through the sea surface and heat divergence in the Ekman layer is also discussed. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Semi-Probabilistic Evaluation of System Redundancy for Existing Offshore Structures

In this paper, a new definition of structure system redundancy is proposed in view of the various measures for structure redundancy. By introducing the terms of structure system failure at the mechanism level and equivalent reliability index, the safety for existing offshore platforms can be evaluated by the semi-probabilistic method presented in this paper. Some numerical examples are given and satisfactory results have been obtained.