霸王(Sarcozygium xanthoxylon)灌木年轮记录的1902—2015年阿拉善荒漠中部气候干湿变化

基于阿拉善荒漠中部的4个霸王(Sarcozygium xanthoxylon)样点建立的区域轮宽年表,探讨了霸王径向生长对气候变化的响应及阿拉善荒漠中部区域1902—2015年的干湿变化。结果表明:霸王的径向生长主要受到生长季及前期降水(当年4—7月和前一年10—12月降水)影响。年代际尺度上,区域年表共记录了1920s初—1930s初、1940s初以及1970s末—1980s末3个干旱时段和1900s末—1920s初、1930s、1960s中—1970s中以及1980s末—至今4个湿润时段。区域气候干湿变化以2~8、11、16~32a周期最为明显,在1970s末发生了周期性震荡。本研究所揭示的区域百余年来气候干湿变化波动状况,可为区域环境演变和荒漠化防治提供气候背景代用资料和决策依据。     

黄河小北干流汛期和非汛期冲淤过程模拟

滞后性是河流系统自动调整的重要特征之一。根据河道演变的滞后响应机制,在考虑上游来水来沙和下游侵蚀基准面（潼关高程）共同影响的基础上,建立了能够模拟河道汛期和非汛期冲淤过程的滞后响应模型,并采用黄河小北干流1960-2015年的冲淤资料进行参数率定（1960-2001年）和模型验证（2002-2015年）。结果表明该模型能较好地模拟小北干流汛期和非汛期的冲淤过程。汛期和非汛期累计冲淤量的模拟效果优于单个冲淤量;累计冲淤量和单个冲淤量的模拟效果汛期要优于非汛期。三门峡水库修建后,1960-2015年间小北干流汛期和非汛期的冲淤过程表现出时段差异。根据建立的滞后响应模型,本文分析了来水来沙和潼关高程对小北干流汛期和非汛期各个特征时段冲淤的贡献率,汛期和非汛期的第一时段（1960-1970年,1960-1968年）主要受到潼关高程的影响,但是后续时段主要受到来水来沙的影响。     

南极洲伊丽莎白公主地区主要离子沉积方式及nssSO_4~(2-)气候效应研究

通过对１９９６／１９９７年中国首次南极内陆冰盖考察获得的南极洲伊丽莎白公主地区５０ｍ 雪芯样品主要阴、阳离子浓度、通量和积累率关系的研究,揭示以下规律：１）南极洲伊丽莎白公主地区大气中各主要离子浓度足够大,足以使本地区冰雪中主要离子浓度不随积累率的变化而变化,即离子浓度不受积累率的影响。２）各主要离子干、湿沉积所占比重的计算结果表明,本地区离子沉积方式以湿沉积为主。另外,ｎｓｓＳＯ２－４ 的研究结果表明火山爆发的中、短期气候效应在伊丽莎白公主地区反应不明显。     

A Comparison of Growth Biomarkers for Assessing Sublethal Effects of Cadmium on a Marine Gastropod, Nassarius festivus

The effect of cadmium on the growth of an intertidal marine gastropod, Nassarius festivus, was investigated using a number of biomarkers namely conventional measurements in terms of increase in shell length or body weight, scope for growth (SfG) and RNA/DNA ratio. After eight days of cadmium exposure, the no observable effect concentration (NOEC) and lowest observable effect concentration (LOEC) for the rate of increase in wet weight were 1.00 and 1.38 mg/l, respectively, while those for shell length did not show any significant difference from the control until day 16. After 16 days of cadmium exposure, the LOEC for both shell length and wet weight measurements was 0.22 mg/l. The 8-day SfG test was sensitive to cadmium stress, showing a significant decrease at 0.16 mg/l cadmium when compared to the control. The NOEC and LOEC of RNA/DNA ratio determination were 0.52 and 0.93 mg/l, respectively. An assessment based on sensitivity and technical complexity suggests that Scope for Growth is the most sensitive growth biomarker, followed by the RNA/DNA ratio, and then the conventional growth measurement based on shell size and body weight.     

利用地基GPS测定沙尘暴的含沙量

准确掌握地球大气中沙尘的分布,了解沙尘移动趋势对天气现象、气候变化、数值预报有重要的理论研究及实用价值。本文详细地论述了利用地基GPS方法观测大气中沙尘含量的原理。论述了在地基GPS技术中观测站遥测大气中沙尘含量的理论基础,建立了利用GPS观测数据计算大气层沙尘含量的理论模型,导出了相应的计算公式。     

流域水文年及丰枯水期划分方法

研究流域水文年及丰、枯水期划分方法,为水文水利计算提供科学依据。通过分析流域径流变化特点,提出径流累计距平法。将该方法用于黑河上游流域,结果表明:该方法为黑河上游流域确定了合理的水文年及丰、枯水期;在不同水文年起讫日下,黑河上游流域年径流时间序列的统计特性和典型年的径流年内分配特征发生显著变化。因此,径流累计距平法可用于划分流域水文年及丰、枯水期,统一水文年划分方式对水文水利计算十分必要。     

基于“水文频率-水质”拟合曲线的河流水质变异与等级特征值分析方法

时空特征分析对全面掌握水质变异规律具有重要意义,但现有的水质时空特征分析方法仍存在水质变异次序不分、水质变幅极值不清、水质评价特征值不明等不足。为更加清晰地探析水质时空特征信息,以秦淮河为研究对象,参考工程水文学经验频率法,建立“水文频率-水质”拟合曲线用于探索流域内高/低活动区不同时间段和丰/枯水期不同河段水质变异特征,并与传统的箱线图法进行对比。结果表明:与箱线图相比,“水文频率-水质”拟合曲线可量化关键水质评判点与特征值信息,使水质时空变异过程更为清晰。在时间上“水文频率-水质”拟合曲线的最佳形式为线性曲线,水质浓度一般不会发生突变;在空间上“水文频率-水质”拟合曲线的最佳形式为指数曲线,水质浓度有较大可能发生突增。各时间段高活动区氮磷浓度大于低活动区,各水体断面丰水期氮磷浓度低于枯水期。该方法分析过程简单方便,结果直观有序,能将水质信息以统计规律自动反映出来,在水质采样点、采样时间和采样频率典型时可作为优选方法用于河流水质时空特征研究。     

陕北定边盐湖卤水水位历史演变及其气候指示意义(1265—1949年)

受自然环境和资料限制的原因,中国西北的季风边缘区内的湖泊千-百年时间尺度演变序列重建工作存在不足.历史文献中的湖泊演变信息丰富,有效利用可较好地解决这一问题.本文通过梳理历史文献记录的定边盐湖采盐方式资料,反演历史时期定边盐湖卤水水位,重建公元1265-1949年陕北定边盐湖卤水水位演变序列,该序列较好地指示出公元12...     

Evidence of Self‐Organized Criticality in riverbank mass failures: a matter of perspective?

A growing body of field, theoretical and numerical modelling studies suggests that predicting river response to even major changes in input variables is difficult. Rivers are seen to adjust rapidly and variably through time and space as well as changing independently of major driving variables. Concepts such as Self‐Organized Criticality (SOC) are considered to better reflect the complex interactions and adjustments occurring in systems than traditional approaches of cause and effect. This study tests the hypothesis that riverbank mass failures which occurred both prior to, and during, an extreme flood event in southeast Queensland (SEQ) in 2011 are a manifestation of SOC. Each wet‐flow failure is somewhat analogous to the ‘avalanche’ described in the initial sand‐pile experiments of Bak et al. (Physical Review Letters, 1987, 59(4), 381–384) and, due to the use of multitemporal LiDAR, the time period of instability can be effectively constrained to that surrounding the flood event. The data is examined with respect to the key factors thought to be significant in evaluating the existence of SOC including; non‐linear temporal dynamics in the occurrence of disturbance events within the system; an inverse power‐law relation between the magnitude and frequency of the events; the existence of a critical state to which the system readjusts after a disturbance; the existence of a cascading processes mechanism by which the same process can initiate both low‐magnitude and high‐magnitude events. While there was a significant change in the frequency of mass failures pre‐ and post‐flood, suggesting non‐linear temporal dynamics in the occurrence of disturbance events, the data did not fit an inverse power‐law within acceptable probability and other models were found to fit the data better. Likewise, determining a single ‘critical’ state is problematic when a variety of feedbacks and multiple modes of adjustment are likely to have operated throughout this high magnitude event. Overall, the extent to which the data supports a self‐organized critical state is variable and highly dependent upon inferential arguments. Investigating the existence of SOC, however, provided results and insights that are useful to the management and future prediction of these features. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

近60 a来西秦岭及周边地区降水的分布格局

基于西秦岭及周边地区15个气象站点的降水、气温等月值、年值资料,采用相关统计分析及检验的方法,研究了1951年以来该区域近60 a干湿变化的时空特征。结果表明:西秦岭及周边地区1951年以来降水量呈下降趋势,秋季降水量减少趋势最明显,速率为-18.6 mm· (10 a)^-1;而近60 a年平均气温呈上升趋势,升温速率为0.28℃· (10 a)^-1。对比气温和降水要素,西秦岭及周边地区年平均温度每升高1℃,则年降水减少37 mm,表明该区近60 a由冷湿向暖干转变。同时将气候要素与Niño3.4指数进行相关分析,结果显示在厄尔尼诺事件发生当年该区降水少,气温高,容易发生干旱。利用改进的经验正交函数法分析西秦岭及其周边地区15个气象站点的气候要素,发现该区年降水距平百分率的第一模态解释方差为49.0%,整个区域呈同向变化,而年平均温度距平第一模态解释方差为78.8%,在整个区域内亦呈现同向变化。对比两个要素第一模态显示西秦岭近60 a东部地区与西部地区相比,呈现降水减少幅度大,气温升高速率小的分布格局。